The BTC Football Trading Thread

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subotica losing

Matt Wood

right quick look at the p/l and I have hit max loss for the day so I am out now.

Best of luck to those still chasing catch you all tomorrow, for a better day

Richard Latimer

@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

right need a good bit of dogging action to save the day again lol

All favourites winning too easily again now haha!

Matt Wood

right need a good bit of dogging action to save the day again lol

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FHGs for me have to be traded differently to SHGs. SHGs your basing value off of pre match stats, inplay stats and price. FHGs i would say inplay becomes void and as such means you have to verge towards a set and forget "system" based approach. If you do base it on inplay then fair play i just find it harder to judge. So just looking at your strike rate over +100 qualifiers and then just placing a trade within your strike rate range. So example you have a 80% strike rate you could pre match place a 1.4/1.5 wait for it to match inplay normally matched between 0-15 mins and look to make a consistent profit that acts as a side strategy rather than main one. Similar to the FHG project i started on the blog

Richard Latimer

Almost every single goal now going in the direction where it's a non starter.

Matt Wood

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@matt-wood have always seen the fhg as more risky as you dont have 45-60 mins of in play data to go off

No one is busting a gut to score before HT either. Plus they're not tired so concentration higher in defence. Think there's a multipe of reasons.

I agree, I think the lure is the potential returns from FHG trades, and there are certainly a lot of FHG, just hard to get it consistently correct.

Richard Latimer

@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@matt-wood have always seen the fhg as more risky as you dont have 45-60 mins of in play data to go off

No one is busting a gut to score before HT either. Plus they're not tired so concentration higher in defence. Think there's a multipe of reasons.

Matt Wood

Feckers, thats a FHG goal they held on to until the 2H

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@matt-wood have always seen the fhg as more risky as you dont have 45-60 mins of in play data to go off

Matt Wood

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Going for a FHG @ Ostersunds

Well I am on a brilliant 0/5 now

I still can't get a grip on the FHG. I'm looking at something in the background but hardly any qualifiers and when getting the odds I want plus the time of first goal it's pretty much a 60% outcome.

yea I think it has to be one of the harder trades to get consistently correct.

Richard Latimer

@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Going for a FHG @ Ostersunds

Well I am on a brilliant 0/5 now

I still can't get a grip on the FHG. I'm looking at something in the background but hardly any qualifiers and when getting the odds I want plus the time of first goal it's pretty much a 60% outcome.

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@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Going for a FHG @ Ostersunds

Well I am on a brilliant 0/5 now

Bring back the cricket!!

Richard Latimer

@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Guys who are using small stakes, how do you manage to pay for the £30 a month fee on here? been here 3 months and am in an overall negative when taking fees out. Wondering if its all worth it really. At £30 a month it is one of the more expensive subs i have.

I guess look at it as trading expenses? When people start a new company they very often write off any profits made in th first year as being necessary to put back into the business so they know they won't make anything initially. They just lay the groundwork.

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Im 3, nearly 4 months in. First 2 lost about 20% including fees. Last month was 5% profit after fees. This month is currently paid for, it gets better. Just be disciplined. Find what you like, ignore anything that you do have your own data for. The confidence will grow and don’t over stake. I’m no pro but the less is more approach has been massive for me. I’ve had just as many no trade days this month as profit days.

Matt Wood

@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Going for a FHG @ Ostersunds

Well I am on a brilliant 0/5 now

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@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Guys who are using small stakes, how do you manage to pay for the £30 a month fee on here? been here 3 months and am in an overall negative when taking fees out. Wondering if its all worth it really. At £30 a month it is one of the more expensive subs i have.

For me its the only sub I have and I dropped the years sub in one to save 2mnths worth as I have given myself a year to see if I can learn this.

Similar to Matt, I'm prepared to write off a year of monthly charges as I learn with a view to making more significant profits in the long term. Factored into my budgetting before committing to the cost.

I'm kind of treating it as a business even though its not and treating as an overhead/business expense and there are very few if any businesses that make money in there first year.

There was someone who posted recently who did a review of there first 12 months as a BTC member and it took them four or five months to see any kind of returns. Apologies, can't remember who it was.

Matt Wood

Going for a FHG @ Ostersunds

Matt Wood

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Not been a great Sunday so far too let down by teams who looked like they we're playing hungover - yes Guangzhou and Hacken I'm looking at you.

Let's see if anything else on trading plan mainly Norway can claw me something back

yep my worst day yet 0/4 oddly though not the biggest red day

Smaller odds though isn't it.

deff and got a handle on overstaking at last lol

Richard Latimer

@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Not been a great Sunday so far too let down by teams who looked like they we're playing hungover - yes Guangzhou and Hacken I'm looking at you.

Let's see if anything else on trading plan mainly Norway can claw me something back

yep my worst day yet 0/4 oddly though not the biggest red day

Smaller odds though isn't it.