The BTC Football Trading Thread

Stuart Capstick

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer

Could it not just be that perhaps some games are from teams playing their first games of the season?

For example, today Kilmarnock pulled off a draw with Celtic in the first game of the Scottish Premiership.

However, I know you've been tracking this for a year or so and it may be that ELO transcends early season nonsense. In which case, it's just plain old nasty variance.

Considering ELO is merely added and subtracted with every given result I think early season stuff is less important. Summer leagues have been doing well enough from the get go. Occasional mishap more than made up for by the ones that end well.

Sorry, posted before I saw this response.

Then it's quite straightforward: just got to ride the peaks and troughs.

Stuart Capstick

@richard-latimer

Killmarnock are dross and got a draw against Celtic (odds 1.25)- that's a pretty big surprise. Celtic was very underwhelming in the game. Early season teething.

But as I said, you've been tracking this a while and would know if early season games are more likely to buck the ELO trends.

Richard Latimer

@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer

Could it not just be that perhaps some games are from teams playing their first games of the season?

For example, today Kilmarnock pulled off a draw with Celtic in the first game of the Scottish Premiership.

However, I know you've been tracking this for a year or so and it may be that ELO transcends early season nonsense. In which case, it's just plain old nasty variance.

Considering ELO is merely added and subtracted with every given result I think early season stuff is less important. Summer leagues have been doing well enough from the get go. Occasional mishap more than made up for by the ones that end well.

Richard Latimer

@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer

Could it not just be that perhaps some games are from teams playing their first games of the season?

For example, today Kilmarnock pulled off a draw with Celtic in the first game of the Scottish Premiership.

However, I know you've been tracking this for a year or so and it may be that ELO transcends early season nonsense. In which case, it's just plain old nasty variance.

It could be but a) I'm happy with a draw and b) Flamengo missed 3 big chances in the first half. Who knew they would come out and play like a bag of spanners for the next 45.

? Offline

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Still got one more potential for the day in Paraguay but it's a red day regardless.

for me was also not good i had 15 games over 2.5 games 10 winners but in 6 not matched at all

Stuart Capstick

@richard-latimer

Could it not just be that perhaps some games are from teams playing their first games of the season?

For example, today Kilmarnock pulled off a draw with Celtic in the first game of the Scottish Premiership.

However, I know you've been tracking this for a year or so and it may be that ELO transcends early season nonsense. In which case, it's just plain old nasty variance.

Richard Latimer

@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Since 01/08 and creating my new sheet the ELO's are break even. Been a tough couple of days for sure.

and in long run how many points gave it to you?

Loads haha!!

ok but y also look at when y only the games where the laY ODDS are lower then 2 the difference to lay also with high odds

Trust me, the profit is every bit as good with higher odds.

Richard Latimer

Still got one more potential for the day in Paraguay but it's a red day regardless.

? Offline

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Since 01/08 and creating my new sheet the ELO's are break even. Been a tough couple of days for sure.

and in long run how many points gave it to you?

Loads haha!!

ok but y also look at when y only the games where the laY ODDS are lower then 2 the difference to lay also with high odds

Richard Latimer

@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Since 01/08 and creating my new sheet the ELO's are break even. Been a tough couple of days for sure.

and in long run how many points gave it to you?

Loads haha!!