The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@alan-steward
I think thats a good idea
No I dont but it could work -
@thomas-larsen maybe it would be a good idea to post in the Stats Software filter and get feedback from Ryan and the rest of the guys working on there stuff.
Out of interest do you include a BTTS criteria... If not could be a good adition for a LTD filter???
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Hello all
Im looking for inspiration to my LTD KO filter. Is it ok to discuss filters in this thread? -
Hopefully more goals will follow in China... Another 2 with BTTS would be awesome lol
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@finn-kristensen I am looking to hit one of the target scores... There are many variables/options in trading this option but am switching to this method as it offers lowest risk while maximising reward.
Hopefully worse case game will hit 3 goals and we will scratch the trade, unless it's 2-1 or 1-2 then we can possibly lay the 2 remaining scorelines... Either 3-1 & 2-2 or 1-3 & 2-2 and lock in 0.25pts green from overs leaving a free bet on target scores but always look to take circa 75% green when hitting target score or as much green as possible or just hold tight and hope for no more goals.
If game looks dead on 2 goals it might be possible to remove red in correct score & exit o2.5goals for nominal green/scratch
Hope this helps
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
In Henan game in China will trade as;
Correct score & dutch 3-1, 2-2 & 1-3
Lay u2.5 goals @ KOThe 2.5 market will help add green to the trade & offer protection if no BTTS
Will post any moves on here in case anybody is interested.
Have dutched correct score for 0.25pts (liability 0.25pts) (Full possible green 1.52pts)
Have layed u 2.5 goals for 0.25pts @ 2.58 (liability 0.4pts) (Full possible green 0.25pts)Do you trade out after a goal or is this mostly set & forget?
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@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 Okay, so I have layed u2.5 which is basically backing o2.5 and the reason I have done this is to suit the trade I'm in.
I scratched my trade in Sirius game last night as I didn't have cover without BTTS... I was waiting for 2.02 as this is better value but goal came too early.
Following on from our discussions re o2.5 goals as a separate trade then yes we will look to back minimum evens after commission
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
In Henan game in China will trade as;
Correct score & dutch 3-1, 2-2 & 1-3
Lay u2.5 goals @ KOThe 2.5 market will help add green to the trade & offer protection if no BTTS
Will post any moves on here if anybody in case anybody is interested.
Have dutched correct score for 0.25pts (liability 0.25pts) (Full possible green 1.52pts)
Have layed u 2.5 goals for 0.25pts @ 2.58 (liability 0.4pts) (Full possible green 0.25pts)but laying unders 2.5 is not good i think the overs 2.5 because we can backing the overs odds above 2.2 in long run is that super +EV
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Nice night trying Paraguay for the first time from a trading perspective. Got the FHG in the early match which wasn’t on a filter and got out of the O2.5 trade following the red card for pretty much scratch. The Olimpia game came up on many filters and we hit the FHG the O2.5 and the Late Goal. To be fair once the score hit 1-1 I removed liability and let the O2.5 run as I was hitting the wall so I didn’t enter for the late goal but it came on 77 mins I think at around 2.0.
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In Henan game in China will trade as;
Correct score & dutch 3-1, 2-2 & 1-3
Lay u2.5 goals @ KOThe 2.5 market will help add green to the trade & offer protection if no BTTS
Will post any moves on here in case anybody is interested.
Have dutched correct score for 0.25pts (liability 0.25pts) (Full possible green 1.52pts)
Have layed u 2.5 goals for 0.25pts @ 2.58 (liability 0.4pts) (Full possible green 0.25pts) -
@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 I did Split Stake in the first game in Paraguay & o2.5 in 2nd game so win win for me... Thanks for the early heads up... 2nd game was on my FHG filter but don't really like trading this league so only used half stakes
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Anybody looked into the game in South Korea (Seongnam)
Any possible trades lined up... Looks more of am under's game which I don't normally trade but that said I don't see a 0-0
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Yesterday in Paraquay unlucky
2 games there all the filters big green
First game 1-0 ht hudge value to back the overs 2.5 @3.2
but second half RC then we go out the trade for min lossGame 2 i put order @2.44 for 1 point and got matched then overall 2 games arround 1.4 points profit overall
that make sense
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Late goal strategy
I have 250 games now but the profits are not the same lik the overs 2.5
because i only back above 2 , then we get the variance and the variance is much biggerbacking @1.6 LATE GOALor overs 1.5 we can do that but i need a strikerate from 80% TO get a good profit in the longrun
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The difference between overs 2.5 and 1.5 one goal haha for sure but
the odds from ko and the odds are great
let say we have game x odds over 2.5 @2.1 we get in arround 2.2
first goal came in arround 25 min and another one in the 44th min great odds goes down untill 1.2
we can make both sides green 100% ROI
or it is HT 1-0 then we get a goal in the 53 min GREAT freebet on the overs ....
second goal arround 65 min let it run untill the end
worst senario no goals untill 80 th but lot of action we lay cs to get the trade scratch up to the next gameexpecting value 0.38 points a trade, when y do your homework
filters fhg filter is ok or btts score filter
look also to H2 matches between the teams in the past
look for teams that in the overs 2.5 average 50% but plays last / games under 2.5
when y start small styakes like 0.5 points and 0.25 points to get it scratch when y bneed that
or papertrades
and only games that y can follow with in play scanner or via flashscore something like thatresults from 100 games +37 points ..... strikrate arround 60%
ODDS TO BACK MIN 2.2 UNTILL 3Have a nice tradingsday
For the overs y can also use ryans o/vers filter i believe also a lot have more then goals
but we want starting odds on betfair 1.8-2.1 and we wait 5 min /10 min or when we see action high DA or sot -
@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 Sounds good to me, I love these leagues!
They've always been my favourite to trade!
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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
If 0-0 @ HT LTD for me today
Haka v KuPS
Inter Turku v HIFKooh nice i have all the finland games in the over 2.5 and maybe something in norway when it is arround 20/25 min still 0-0 for the overs 2.5
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@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@john-hurst faffing about with VAR for ages mate. They do all count tho.
nice wake up with the paraquay game first game last but sec game won overal profit in paraquay
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And finally the 0-2 lays if home team has a mare and goes 0-2 down before 80mins:
