The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 But youve backed up your point with just one example? I could give you numerous examples of games which shouldve had 3 or more goals, they had no goal by HT then went on to stay under 2.5. Games dont go to plan sometimes!
60% of my games not come in the filters here and i made 37 points in 102 games
strikerate 61% min odds to back between 2.2-3 -
@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 Yeah definitely see another goal here mate... I evaluated 2 as worst case pre match
it comes before 75 mins lol -
@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 But youve backed up your point with just one example? I could give you numerous examples of games which shouldve had 3 or more goals, they had no goal by HT then went on to stay under 2.5. Games dont go to plan sometimes!
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Odds over 8 to lay the 1 goal in Sydney... Reckon the market expects another goal lol
the stats here says 0-1 goes tot 1-1 for 75% this season before covid
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Odds over 8 to lay the 1 goal in Sydney... Reckon the market expects another goal lol
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer Mmmm! Interesting... Personally I don't like to mix a positive with a negative, it's almost telling me I'm not that confident in my selection.
Where I back o2.5 goals with my correct score trades this will add green to my trade BUT helps against no BTTS (in a 4 goal trade) or quick goals in a 3 goal trade
I understand what you are saying with this but im seeing it like a stop-loss so youre basically saying 'i expect O2.5 but if something hasnt happened by this point then its not going to plan'
If i am backing at 2.0 and i win 60/100 of the time then its marginally profitable. However, if out of those 40 losers i can lose only 0.5 or 0.6 pt instead of 1 pt then its slightly more profitable. I accept that cashing out reduces the number of wins aswell so thats where the data analysis comes in
last week i back over 2.5 kofu game @ 2.7 0-0 ht
then from start sh over 1.5 @2.1
final results over 2.5 +2.8 pointsbut cashout ht...lol
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer Mmmm! Interesting... Personally I don't like to mix a positive with a negative, it's almost telling me I'm not that confident in my selection.
Where I back o2.5 goals with my correct score trades this will add green to my trade BUT helps against no BTTS (in a 4 goal trade) or quick goals in a 3 goal trade
I understand what you are saying with this but im seeing it like a stop-loss so youre basically saying 'i expect O2.5 but if something hasnt happened by this point then its not going to plan'
If i am backing at 2.0 and i win 60/100 of the time then its marginally profitable. However, if out of those 40 losers i can lose only 0.5 or 0.6 pt instead of 1 pt then its slightly more profitable. I accept that cashing out reduces the number of wins aswell so thats where the data analysis comes in
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer Mmmm! Interesting... Personally I don't like to mix a positive with a negative, it's almost telling me I'm not that confident in my selection.
Where I back o2.5 goals with my correct score trades this will add green to my trade BUT helps against no BTTS (in a 4 goal trade) or quick goals in a 3 goal trade
I followed for a while but personally I hate redding out and then seeing the goals come with a what if.
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer Mmmm! Interesting... Personally I don't like to mix a positive with a negative, it's almost telling me I'm not that confident in my selection.
Where I back o2.5 goals with my correct score trades this will add green to my trade BUT helps against no BTTS (in a 4 goal trade) or quick goals in a 3 goal trade
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@richard-latimer Mmmm! Interesting... Personally I don't like to mix a positive with a negative, it's almost telling me I'm not that confident in my selection.
Where I back o2.5 goals with my correct score trades this will add green to my trade BUT helps against no BTTS (in a 4 goal trade) or quick goals in a 3 goal trade
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 It depends on the strategy surely? There isnt just one way to trade
there is ....over 2.5 keep it simple 2 fhg trade out or 2 goals before 55 min cash out
1 goal untill 75 min lay cs
all about the right match selection and which odds y enter -
@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer Thanks for that. Just over 50% is ok
Sometimes could be closer to 60%. I think Frode gets in around 15 as well so that may make a small difference.
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@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 It depends on the strategy surely? There isnt just one way to trade
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@richard-latimer Thanks for that. Just over 50% is ok
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 Wrong in what way?
to cash out ht lol, happened to often to sh goals before the 65 min alreading in profit or freebet
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@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 Wrong in what way?
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman If 0-0 @ HT cash out would be red???
It's what Frode does. You lose just over 50% on average.
and that is wrong !!!!!!!!!!!
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman If 0-0 @ HT cash out would be red???
It's what Frode does. You lose just over 50% on average.
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0-1 in Sydney... They certainly appear to be struggling since the restart
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@alan-steward I appreciate that but if it salvages something then it could be a profitable strategy overall. Its similar to the split stake Ryan does, in that a goal is expected between 30' and 70' but if it doesnt happen then you keep the loss lower
