The BTC Football Trading Thread

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@finn-kristensen In that situation i do agree on its application. It could be used to measure the success of an advertising campaign, purchasing a new piece of machinery or a multitude of other scenarios in a business setting

Richard Latimer

This is now turning into business school 101 haha

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@finn-kristensen But surely then in 99.9% of real world situations ROI is used incorrectly. If you started a business with 10k, turn over that money 20 times then walk away with 20k then id imagine most people would say its 100% ROI as your investment was 10k. And if you invested 1000 in a stock and it was traded over and over then gave you 1100 at the end of the year youd say it was 10% ROI

Finn Kristensen

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@finn-kristensen But wouldnt that make ROI a redundant metric in most situations? For example, if you put £10k into a business and they repeatedly bought and sold products and you took £20k out after 3 years then most people would see that as 100% ROI but actually it may only be say 2% ROI based on the fact the company had turned over the initial money lots of times

Im not saying youre wrong by the way, just naturally curious about things!

Hi Lee - no, ROI is definitely important, as it shows what you on average make per single investment (bet or trade) and consequently if you set specific targets for a defined period of time, you will know how much you need to stake per "investment" in order to deliver on those targets, as long as you know the volume of investments (i.e. number of bets or trades) you expect to make within the time frame you look at.

Aren't you now referring to what I would call yield and what you would term ROI rather than ROI which you term as ROC haha??!!

To me, yield = ROI (Though I never use that term personally). ROI is always based on single investments, For instance, a company running a marketing campaign at a budget of £1 Mio expect some kind of ROI specifically for this marketing effort and they use the ROI for each media as an important parameter when deciding what media to use (and the term ROI is specifically being used here - I know as I used to work at a Media Agency). They do not look at the return compared to the total company's capital.

Richard Latimer

@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@finn-kristensen But wouldnt that make ROI a redundant metric in most situations? For example, if you put £10k into a business and they repeatedly bought and sold products and you took £20k out after 3 years then most people would see that as 100% ROI but actually it may only be say 2% ROI based on the fact the company had turned over the initial money lots of times

Im not saying youre wrong by the way, just naturally curious about things!

Hi Lee - no, ROI is definitely important, as it shows what you on average make per single investment (bet or trade) and consequently if you set specific targets for a defined period of time, you will know how much you need to stake per "investment" in order to deliver on those targets, as long as you know the volume of investments (i.e. number of bets or trades) you expect to make within the time frame you look at.

Aren't you now referring to what I would call yield and what you would term ROI rather than ROI which you term as ROC haha??!!

Richard Latimer

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer Out of interest, what do you use it for? Is there a point you say 'well this strategy yields x% which isnt enough' or is it 'strategy A gives 2.5%, strategy B gives 3% so ill go with B'

Well if any of my strategies were below 10% long term I wouldn't be happy. The ELO is around 13-14%. Late goals so far 26% which isn't sustainable I wouldn't have thought. If you're getting less than 10 you need a lot of trades to make decent money or a big bank. Grinding as has been mentioned here.

That's my opinion anyway. Don't take it as gospel haha!

Finn Kristensen

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@finn-kristensen But wouldnt that make ROI a redundant metric in most situations? For example, if you put £10k into a business and they repeatedly bought and sold products and you took £20k out after 3 years then most people would see that as 100% ROI but actually it may only be say 2% ROI based on the fact the company had turned over the initial money lots of times

Im not saying youre wrong by the way, just naturally curious about things!

Hi Lee - no, ROI is definitely important, as it shows what you on average make per single investment (bet or trade) and consequently if you set specific targets for a defined period of time, you will know how much you need to stake per "investment" in order to deliver on those targets, as long as you know the volume of investments (i.e. number of bets or trades) you expect to make within the time frame you look at.

Eamonn Hogan

Thats me for today gents. A great 11.5 points for me today mainly due to FHG. Good luck to everyone still on.

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@richard-latimer Out of interest, what do you use it for? Is there a point you say 'well this strategy yields x% which isnt enough' or is it 'strategy A gives 2.5%, strategy B gives 3% so ill go with B'

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@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

As per usual some great chat on this forum and a great way to continue to learn.

Agreed mate! I actually think to successfully trade is a LOT less about the actually strategy than people realise. Weve all had a bad run and 99% of the time we probably all think 'how can i change/improve this strategy/filter' when in fact its something different more often than not. It could be incorrect staking, chasing losses, not sticking to the plan, variance or whatever so to continually have discussions on here really helps everyone improve the most important aspect of trading. After all, its a huge learning curve

Richard Latimer

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer Or you could try my way and overstake, crap yourself that youve overstaked and reduce it. Ha ha

Just kidding, i guess people just look at things in different ways and record and monitor things differently, theres no right way. I cant see id ever use yield in that sense, but i guess knowing that you had 2 pts, 3 pts or whatever at risk is part of the picture i build up to decide on staking. From there i see how profitable a strategy is based on time input (a huge factor for me)

I like to strike a balance between yield and s/r.

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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@lee-woodman best practise from my own experience is to stick to 1% of bank until you have a good amount of results to show. Then adjust your staking accordingly to your strike rate. If its say a higher strike rate your able to stake higher if its a low one always stay safe. Just strike rate dependant. I trade late goals and go through runs of losses but its all about knowledge of how good your start is at coping with those losses. There are many traders who trade 1-10% as long as its in line with their strike rate.

Absolutely makes sense, its all subjective based on SR, odds, historical data, variance, mentality to losses etc. I would start at 1% then it can be nudged up over time, if you start too high you can end up in a tricky spot

Saying that, I always add a calculation for yield after a while. Think it's important to know what you had on the table to reach your end point or current point.

macara from 0-4 to 4-4

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@richard-latimer Or you could try my way and overstake, crap yourself that youve overstaked and reduce it. Ha ha

Just kidding, i guess people just look at things in different ways and record and monitor things differently, theres no right way. I cant see id ever use yield in that sense, but i guess knowing that you had 2 pts, 3 pts or whatever at risk is part of the picture i build up to decide on staking. From there i see how profitable a strategy is based on time input (a huge factor for me)

James Woodroffe

As per usual some great chat on this forum and a great way to continue to learn.

Richard Latimer

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@lee-woodman best practise from my own experience is to stick to 1% of bank until you have a good amount of results to show. Then adjust your staking accordingly to your strike rate. If its say a higher strike rate your able to stake higher if its a low one always stay safe. Just strike rate dependant. I trade late goals and go through runs of losses but its all about knowledge of how good your start is at coping with those losses. There are many traders who trade 1-10% as long as its in line with their strike rate.

Absolutely makes sense, its all subjective based on SR, odds, historical data, variance, mentality to losses etc. I would start at 1% then it can be nudged up over time, if you start too high you can end up in a tricky spot

Saying that, I always add a calculation for yield after a while. Think it's important to know what you had on the table to reach your end point or current point.

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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@lee-woodman best practise from my own experience is to stick to 1% of bank until you have a good amount of results to show. Then adjust your staking accordingly to your strike rate. If its say a higher strike rate your able to stake higher if its a low one always stay safe. Just strike rate dependant. I trade late goals and go through runs of losses but its all about knowledge of how good your start is at coping with those losses. There are many traders who trade 1-10% as long as its in line with their strike rate.

Absolutely makes sense, its all subjective based on SR, odds, historical data, variance, mentality to losses etc. I would start at 1% then it can be nudged up over time, if you start too high you can end up in a tricky spot

Richard Latimer

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@finn-kristensen But wouldnt that make ROI a redundant metric in most situations? For example, if you put £10k into a business and they repeatedly bought and sold products and you took £20k out after 3 years then most people would see that as 100% ROI but actually it may only be say 2% ROI based on the fact the company had turned over the initial money lots of times

Im not saying youre wrong by the way, just naturally curious about things!

I guess. It basically measures you from ground zero up. You turn 100 into 200 and it's 100% ROI. You turn 100 into 1k and it's 900% ROI.

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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

LOL this is why i try keep it all simple and base each strategy on a simple points system if im seeing it rise i know its working, fair play to you lads

Ha ha, this is what i do too, if im making decent points relative to my input then im happy!

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@finn-kristensen But wouldnt that make ROI a redundant metric in most situations? For example, if you put £10k into a business and they repeatedly bought and sold products and you took £20k out after 3 years then most people would see that as 100% ROI but actually it may only be say 2% ROI based on the fact the company had turned over the initial money lots of times

Im not saying youre wrong by the way, just naturally curious about things!

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LOL this is why i try keep it all simple and base each strategy on a simple points system if im seeing it rise i know its working, fair play to you lads