The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Bundasliga returns on May 9th, been signed off
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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward Defo! What's on your mind when you look at them?
Hi Ryan,
I'm looking for the probability of goals, who should win (ELO rating) and if that teams is losing there should be a strong probability of another goal by reading and understanding the come back rating or not if a team maybe good at holding onto a lead and therefore there not being such a good chance of another goal.
Strong probability of BTTS should represent a good prospect for overs market... Low scoring projection would obviously represent value for the unders market.
Being able to work the Ratings Page alongside the Stats Software would just be amazing!!!
The ratings page should tell a story and fully understanding it would turn it into another cash cow (which we already have with the stats software
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@chris-watts said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
What are you guys thinking about home advantage for when the leagues start back behind closed doors - potential for the home sides to be too short? Home sides typically win 40-50% wonder how much of that is down to the crowd?
I’ll only be trading matches that I’m watching. Not sure if stats I currently use will have any relevance after such a long break.
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@ryan-carruthers @alan-steward
Have a look here:
https://www.punterslounge.com/elo-football-ratings/belarus-vysshaya-liga-match-ratings/performance
You can see that, however ELO is calculated, most matches go with ELO. Bear in mind also that Belarus has effectively played behind closed doors.It's almost a perfect test case.
Possible strategies:
a) 0-0 HT, big ELO difference= LTD
b) the above can be refined with the BTC ratings as they give details of average/expected goals.
c) Richard Latimer's "lay the inferior ELO rated team if it is leading" strategy will come into its element here,particularly if the leading inferior team is at home, given that research suggests that home advantage is due to the crowd.If anything, with the variable of crowd influence removed, ELO may be even more effective in helping trading.
But, then again, the crowd being absent creates another variable- the effect of that unfamiliarity on players.As Martin says, I'm leaving it for few weeks after they restart, unless there are obvious in-play opportunities.
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@alan-steward Defo! What's on your mind when you look at them?
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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
This is where ELO will shine, if a team has a high ELO then it's not just due to the fact they are at home, its due to the fact that they are a quality team and have beaten many teams etc....
Exactly mate, this is why I feel it's so important for us to understand the Ratings Page more
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I spoke with Adam (@Everyone) on the ratings, we will have some for the leagues that are currently running, there just isn't enough data at present for the ratings to give a quality result - it shouldn't be long before they produce some ratings - thank you for bearing with us.
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I looked into this a few months ago when the first games behind closed doors took place.
To sum up, there isn't direct research on closed football matches as such, partly because it's so rare.
But, there is a tonne of research on home advantage, which seems to manifest itself through crowds affecting home team performance.
So, a weaker team plays better at home.
With that gone, I guess you'd see stronger away teams having an advantage.
The biggest effect of the crowd seems to be on the ref, however. We may see away teams penalised less by refs. -
@chris-watts Very interesting point it could be an angle to look at. I reckon the bookies won't fall for that and will price accordingly but on the exchange we could gain an edge
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What are you guys thinking about home advantage for when the leagues start back behind closed doors - potential for the home sides to be too short? Home sides typically win 40-50% wonder how much of that is down to the crowd?
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@keith-anderson all depends on the vaccine I guess
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This post is deleted!
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
A lot of countries banning mass attendance at events until October.
Football likely to be behind closed doors even into next season.
Could be a year or 2
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A lot of countries banning mass attendance at events until October.
Football likely to be behind closed doors even into next season.
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@james-everard said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Dutch league have voided the season
Disappointing. Only goal difference separated the top two.
It’s actually a league that I don’t trade much.
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Dutch league have voided the season
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Denmark May 17th
Bundesliga, according to Der Kicker, May 9th.
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@richard-latimer Let me add it to the weekly BTC team agenda now buddy
