The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I'm not an expert on Belgian football, but are the teams fairly even in ability? For example, the Premier has huge disparities in ability (Liverpool vs Newcastle, sadly). Likewise, Croatia has two or three teams that always beat every other team.
I know ELO gives an indication of relative abilities, but I think we all see leagues where on a given day, any team could beat another team and others where the converse is the case.
I don't kow. I kind of thought Club Brugge were a class apart and then you have Anderlecht, Standard etc.... But I look at the results and it's all of them being inconsistent.
Saying that, I don't find English leagues great for this either. Certainly not the 3pm slot.
Who'd have thunk it, match fixing in Belgium haha!
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I'm not an expert on Belgian football, but are the teams fairly even in ability? For example, the Premier has huge disparities in ability (Liverpool vs Newcastle, sadly). Likewise, Croatia has two or three teams that always beat every other team.
I know ELO gives an indication of relative abilities, but I think we all see leagues where on a given day, any team could beat another team and others where the converse is the case.
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@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
When you look at goal averages between leagues, you notice large differences You notice the same for %s of 0-0s etc.
I think it stands to reason that you may see league specific patterns with ELO comebacks.Why? Probably a thousand reasons: "culture", money in the league, level of ability of players, time in season, troubles at the club, troubles in the country etc.
Be interesting to see what you find in your data.
I'd love to know why the Belgians though haha!! On the face of it you see a league with many goals, a few stronger teams, no visible corruption or at least no worse than some other places.
But they just aren't good at coming back when falling down.
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Ive not been a fan of the belgian league for a lot of strategies
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When you look at goal averages between leagues, you notice large differences You notice the same for %s of 0-0s etc.
I think it stands to reason that you may see league specific patterns with ELO comebacks.Why? Probably a thousand reasons: "culture", money in the league, level of ability of players, time in season, troubles at the club, troubles in the country etc.
Be interesting to see what you find in your data.
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer what were the belgians like last year? probably just bad variance i mean look at the stats yesterday. They should have scored. Just one of those games. Leiknir went down and didnt come back too- am sticking to 0-1 down scorelines. Seems like the 1-2/2-3 scorelines arent as good of late.
Also presumably The Leiknir odds were fairly small as they only went behind on 80. I missed that one but prob would have left anyway as I needed to analyse the data after the weekend horror show.
I only ever used to do 0-1 but changed. I think I'll have to look at each on it's own merit but getting rid of some leagues more important I think. Thing is I just don't know why haha!!!???
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You could make the case to exclude Proximus league but then it's still no better than break even. Plus from the August results it's back in the red. And if you combine the prev results with August results it's even further in the red.
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Not included actual p/l in there as my stakes have varied as bank has varied. But red indicates more than a point lost, orange anything less than a point lost and green.....well we all know what green indicates.
Green usually trumps or at least negates an orange where red probably need a couple greens.
As you can see the number of greens is no more than the combined numbe of oranges and reds.
It's around 2-3pts down over the course of a year. Not much but it's enough for me to think why bother.
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer what were the belgians like last year? probably just bad variance i mean look at the stats yesterday. They should have scored. Just one of those games. Leiknir went down and didnt come back too- am sticking to 0-1 down scorelines. Seems like the 1-2/2-3 scorelines arent as good of late.
Noooo noo nooo you misunderstand. This is ALL my data. The Belgians have been pish since May 19 haha!
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@richard-latimer what were the belgians like last year? probably just bad variance i mean look at the stats yesterday. They should have scored. Just one of those games. Leiknir went down and didnt come back too- am sticking to 0-1 down scorelines. Seems like the 1-2/2-3 scorelines arent as good of late.
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@Lee-woodman raised a very interesting point with me today which I've kind of looked for answers on before but google won't tell you anything.
What makes some leagues better for certain things, specifically in this case, one dominant and stronger team to come back and force at least a draw?
Are teams in certain leagues more likely to level up when they concede and are some more likely to concede again when going for that equaliser?
Do some leagues foster more of a bottle job psychology and are some of the more never say die/never give in approach?
WHY ARE THE BELGIANS SO CRAP AT COMING BACK FROM GOING A GOAL DOWN HAHA???
That last one is particularly pertinent as from well over 20 selections it has been appallingly inconsistent on the ELO. I've not removed any of the bigger leagues until now (other than the 3pm English slot which doesn't seem to suit at all) but I can no longer justify including it.
Who knows, maybe it's the first of many and when other leagues start up again I will go back to see what the data tells me before ploughing on.
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@daniel-mills You should of gone the for match winner to qualify for 2up.
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@daniel-mills said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@ben-dobie if PSG get one in i'll be rooting for you!
Cheers mate good luck with yours
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lordy its been a weekend to remember......................deary me
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@matt-wood You definitely should look into matched betting. Its not considered as profitable as it once was but its easy money and a very good way to help your trading bank
If you need any more details just give me a shout
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I've just realised that although it looks like the Irish season has only just begun they've come back from the mother of all layoffs to continue the season they had only just started. Nearly 5 months!
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My goal picks have finished for the day and once more.100% there. Any more ELO's that come up I'll just be watching for the day. No use throwing good money after bad.
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@matt-wood I did notice that i started getting offers come through once i had a bit more money in the account. Might be time to put that extra pound in!
