The BTC Football Trading Thread

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Going to monitor St Gilloise game to see if inplay stats pick up. Ideally in for a goal when odds get to 2.3.

A few more shots this half. Actually lower than 2.3 by the time I got in (1.95). Happy with that.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@daniel-cooper said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer Hi Richard
Do you happen to know what the strike rate for the ELO Dog lays looks like when you compare games where the dog goes ahead from the 0-0 scoreline to those where the dog goes ahead from 1-1,2-2 etc?

No, I wish I did. I monitored them for a bit before doing them myself. Imagine it's not as good but odds prob better on the whole as it suggests more time has passed in the game. Prob swings and roundabouts.

To put in some context. When it's the first entry into the game it's been largely successful 3 greens and 2 small reds in Aug.

When it's the 2nd entry you could usually rely on these being quite good pre 70 mins as that's what my data going back one year says but on the leagues I'm happy with right now it's only worked 1 in 4 times. To put more context on that one of the losers was a 93rd minute goal in Korea today which I completely missed anyway but I imagine the odds were so short on that even if there was time to get in. This leaves Molde which was still around 2.5 and Kofu who went on to concede again so prob a point less there as well.

Aways a 1 in 5 when it comes to the 2nd entry. Although more volatile I would still say this is a slight surprise as my records do show that the strategy is almost a profitable when you leave it to run after an equaliser.

First was a real stunner when Partizan lost to Novi Pazar after actually equalising and taking the lead.
Then Helsingborg beat Norrkoping although this was a goal in the 80th minute and lay odds were 1.3.
Drogheda kept dragging the game back against Athlone.
Bratislava equalised and then somehow still managed to lose to Zlate Moravce in a shock result.
And then there's todays loser @ 1.56.

So in fairness the only one over 1pt there was Zlate Moravce prob around 2.5 to lay still the 2nd time around.

Richard Latimer

@daniel-cooper said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer Hi Richard
Do you happen to know what the strike rate for the ELO Dog lays looks like when you compare games where the dog goes ahead from the 0-0 scoreline to those where the dog goes ahead from 1-1,2-2 etc?

No, I wish I did. I monitored them for a bit before doing them myself. Imagine it's not as good but odds prob better on the whole as it suggests more time has passed in the game. Prob swings and roundabouts.

Richard Latimer

Going to monitor St Gilloise game to see if inplay stats pick up. Ideally in for a goal when odds get to 2.3.

Daniel Cooper

@richard-latimer Hi Richard
Do you happen to know what the strike rate for the ELO Dog lays looks like when you compare games where the dog goes ahead from the 0-0 scoreline to those where the dog goes ahead from 1-1,2-2 etc?

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Helsingborg ahead. Cheap lay @ 1.56.

Re-laid @ 1.03

Can't win them all.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Helsingborg ahead. Cheap lay @ 1.56.

Re-laid @ 1.03

Richard Latimer

Helsingborg ahead. Cheap lay @ 1.56.

Daniel Cooper

@richard-latimer Too early for me also!

Finn Kristensen

@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Its unbelievable that a company as big as betfair cant tell you the score of a game

I've often found that if you update the site/page, the correct score will be shown.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Its unbelievable that a company as big as betfair cant tell you the score of a game

There's a lot that's unbelievable about betfair. This is just one of them haha!

Too early

Richard Latimer

@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Its unbelievable that a company as big as betfair cant tell you the score of a game

There's a lot that's unbelievable about betfair. This is just one of them haha!

Richard Latimer

Going for a goal in AIK. Layiing under 0.5 @ 2.26.

Richard Latimer

Going for another goal in the Chinese game. Laying under 2.5 @ 3.6 and 3.1.

Martin Walker

Its unbelievable that a company as big as betfair cant tell you the score of a game

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Going to be a good day. I can feel it haha

Nice quick one there.

Daniel Cooper

@richard-latimer there it is!

Richard Latimer

Going to be a good day. I can feel it haha

Daniel Cooper

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Jeonbuk behind. Cheap lay.

Winner

Glad I got out haha

Me too and the way in which Betfair cashed it out for me left a higher portion of profit still on Gangwon!

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Shanghai Shenhua ahead but odds just not going down at the moment. Refuse to take a poor price. Yrying to get in @ 3.6-3.65.

Finally.