The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@samo
I’ll share my spreadsheet on here when I have a look at backing instead of laying for the 1 week after internationals
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@samo good idea to think outside the box.
Set and forget draw backing would be fine but I couldn't live trade hoping for a draw, I would not enjoy it at all.
Defo think the first weekend after international break needs to be monitored and anyone trading it very careful, had I traded my strategies I would have been down but some did ok.
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@samo
I want to get my trading to the point where I don’t have to do no in play trading at all on a weekend other than getting a email alert to say a match is 0-0 at ht with 5 shots on goal and the price is right. So I can quickly hoy a over 0.5 om
90% of my trading is placing the bets the night before and logging back in on the night to see how I got on.
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@matthew-harrison
Yes haha is is what i like!
thinking out of the box and doing the opposit and go for value hunting
i know Martin talks about not liking to trade the draw. Because he likes goals in a match. Also not fan of the under 0,5 if i remenber correct.
I think martin thinks a lot better then most punters/gamblers and if even he don't like to trade the draw then there is a fair chance there is value on the draw because all the people want a winner/goals in the game.
the fact that they want a winner makes the od go out of proportion and possible value for us.
So i like what you are doing with the draw and it could be a little gold mine in theorie.What i was saying about the after international break games is that we do a lot of set and forget strategies and martin does not trade them in the time after the break. So the results are so bad that there is not profit to be made. What raises my attention to maybe flip the strategies arroud in this period??
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@matthew-harrison
Yes this is the direction i like to go haha
hunting for value. I know that in some of the youtube video's @
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@samo
If you’re talking about flipping strategy’s around..
I was paper trading a set and forget Ltd since October and noticed it was 10-15 points down every month. So on 1st march I took inspiration from Tomasz, I flipped the Strat and started to back the draw instead of laying. It’s currently 33 points up since . 8 of them points coming over the weekend.
Or if you’re talking specifically about international week. I trade a lot of lower league teams that aren’t effected by internationals so they don’t impact on my filters. However my LTD takes one hell of a hammering 1 week post internationals, then returns to normal levels after. I should look into backing the draw 1 week post internationals actually. You’ve send me down the rabbit hole on this one haha
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@stuart-wallace-0 said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
We're back. Bad Gateway 2 Real(able) System 0.
Who is this bloke Tomacz? -i want to buy him a beer - despite a 3 game reverse last night , overall some 8 out of 11 this weekend - aint bad !!
Actually, it was more like 10 out of 13.
There is a Portuguese game on the startegy for tonight, however, ive noticed that Portugal is a non performing league for this strat. -
@alex-rule said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Hi guys, I'm about to start trading my FHG strategy for Inplay - very exciting times indeed. What other metrics do people record along with their results for these type of inplay strategies?
Thinking of recording GOAL TIME, TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH, SHOTS ON TARGET IN FH.
Any other useful metrics I should be recording please advise! Cheers!I'd also track what happens after too, one of the things I am seeing a lot recently is a lot of guy trading the FH or 1.5 goals and getting out then finding their data gives them some opportunity for another strategy off the initial one.
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i like the idea of looking at the other side when stats show it original idea is not working.
Now i started thinking about the fact that @Martin is not trading the weekends after the international breaks. because the normal selections don't work out so nice when this happen's.
Is there value if we go and take the opposit side? is there data to look at to see if we can back the unders instead of the over or the other way around.
Or are the results all over the place and is there no clear line to trade on?@Matthew-Harrison i know you are a data guy and tracking a lot of games
curius wat you guys think of this idea?
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@richard-latimer
yes for sure
if there is value it will work out in the end.
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@alex-rule id record some prematch stats as well all dependadant on what market you are looking at
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thank god potters gone
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Hi guys, I'm about to start trading my FHG strategy for Inplay - very exciting times indeed. What other metrics do people record along with their results for these type of inplay strategies?
Thinking of recording GOAL TIME, TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH, SHOTS ON TARGET IN FH.
Any other useful metrics I should be recording please advise! Cheers! -
We're back. Bad Gateway 2 Real(able) System 0.
Who is this bloke Tomacz? -i want to buy him a beer - despite a 3 game reverse last night , overall some 8 out of 11 this weekend - aint bad !!
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@samo said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
ik your data shows that there is a 42.52% chance is that it will be under and you can lay for 1,27 (and maybe even lower right before starting time) then you have a 41,42 % value on the lay side.
then it is a really nice trade
Didn't work out today but another day it will/should.
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@samo
Yeah xG of 2.4, 13 goal attempts in the first half and over 10 corners in the first half.Second half was exactly the same. Looked to be a good trade.
I’m not bothered because there’s a action packed weekend over Easter
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@matthew-harrison
i try to see it as a nice opportunity for self control and maybe some meditation
i think the trade was good. utrecht had a Xg of 2,45 in the match. this is out of our hands. lets find a new good trade or enjoy the summer weather
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@matthew-harrison
for some one who was offside and in the line of the keeper and the attacker who scored.
i thinkand the ajax match they disallowed a goal of a player that was clearly not in a offside situation
