The BTC Football Trading Thread

Finn Kristensen

No goals yet in Sweden. Surely, we can't have 3 matches with 0 FHG...?

Finn Kristensen

@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

for people do like to know
in 22 days over 2.5 games 30,03 points up and fhg in the same games +15 points
can not believe my eyes because normally in long term ideal is 10 points a month

Yeah, there are definitely more goals being scored post lockdown than usual. I am running a test with no real restrictions on any parameters (will filter it down eventually when a clear pattern is emerging) and since July 28 (incl.) I have 221 matches, delivering a profit of 29.73 pts when laying U2.5 goals, i.e. a 13,45% ROI. This can't be sustainable and will eventually have to move towards zero and maybe it's starting to happen, as the previous 4 days delivered a loss of 7.16 pts.

Richard Latimer

Don't know if anyone got the Reims lay from Titanic filter. Laid @ 0-2 and cashed 1-2 but they made a full comeback.

Richard Latimer

@ben-dobie Yeah, I thought my calculations were off haha

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for people do like to know
in 22 days over 2.5 games 30,03 points up and fhg in the same games +15 points
can not believe my eyes because normally in long term ideal is 10 points a month

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@richard-latimer Its over a couple of months

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@richard-latimer gotta love those late ones I

liam willis

@Martin-Futter on the fhg strat you have been testing have you looked at a ltd at ht with it when 1-1 0-0 cos ive been testing it and just noticed it could be quite good for that. i only have 42 games so far but 15 winners and 1 loser on ltd might be something to check on your sheet.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Too busy pooring over yesterdays data (not the ELO's but other stuff) and missed a goal in Yamagata. Came 67th minute and recently that would probably mean only half stake matched but it's enough to get me to move on.

This is when working on too much at the same time can have a negative effect I guess. Things get busy, you suffer a slump and can't be bothered to update until the next morning and by then if you're not careful you are missing the new stuff.

There's a goal with my name on it somewhere in Kashima. Laying the under @ 3.9 & 3.4. Variable stakes because of odds.

That said I'm just going to go 3.65 in one hit as when you're using smaller stakes like I am splitting this one just isn't very easy.

Richard Latimer

Too busy pooring over yesterdays data (not the ELO's but other stuff) and missed a goal in Yamagata. Came 67th minute and recently that would probably mean only half stake matched but it's enough to get me to move on.

This is when working on too much at the same time can have a negative effect I guess. Things get busy, you suffer a slump and can't be bothered to update until the next morning and by then if you're not careful you are missing the new stuff.

There's a goal with my name on it somewhere in Kashima. Laying the under @ 3.9 & 3.4. Variable stakes because of odds.

Matt Wood

@martin-walker Agreed, I had one overnight and two this morning, so nice and spread out as well. Much easier to manage my headspace lol

Martin Walker

I had 10 or so fhg picks yesterday, never goes well for me when they are bunched up.

1 overnight won
1 today won

Much prefer it spaced out

Matt Wood

@martin-walker Yep me too :), although yesterday started out good as well lol

Martin Walker

Managed to claw back most of yesterdays disaster already so todays looking up

Martin

@richard-latimer yeah still early days want plenty played in those kinds of leagues

Richard Latimer

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer haha thought that was home game. Btw do you find any disparity between home and away? Wondering if home is better for comeback

Russia too early in the season for you as well?

Home definitely has a better s/r but away odds tend to be higher so swings and roundabouts. Importantly they both seem to be profitable.

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@martin-walker They finally unsuspended it after 25'!

Martin

@richard-latimer haha thought that was home game. Btw do you find any disparity between home and away? Wondering if home is better for comeback

Martin Walker

Betfair have mito suspended but you can bet on sportsbook, dont understand them sometimes

Richard Latimer

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I posted a few figures for one of my filters after 100 games, im just posting an update after 173 games. I notice a few people are struggling with the crappy variance at the minute and it seems are a bit unsure which way to proceed. The figures below are unedited from my filter, so they do include games in which you wouldnt enter a trade (red cards, last game of the season with nothing to play for and so on). I dont put too much emphasis on in-play stats or current scoreline, its more systematic from me

How i trade these:

Lay 2+ SH goals on 50'. There's a big drop in odds from 46-50 on this market which i believe offsets the slight reduction in SR. Sometimes it drops from 2.4-2.1/2.2 in just a few minutes. I lay this for 1 pt. The SR has dropped slightly this month but so has the odds. Last months odds averaged 2.2, this month its 1.85

LCS at 3.0 for 1/2 pt then LCS again at 2.0 for 1pt. Overall max circa 3pts liability (obviously this can be halved easily)

Im looking at O2.5 on these on 10' and 30'. Although the SR isnt amazing, ive found that if there isnt a goal by HT then it appears to make sense to cashout as in that situation its very rare to hit O2.5 in the SH. Obviously i can combine this with the above trades in some way or cashout in the SH after a goal but im doing it as standalone test to see how it fares

Im going to keep collating the data and will periodically look at how its going, whether the stats still play out, whether there's additional angles etc etc. This is my main filter to trade at the minute and has returned 16pts so far this month

If anyone is interested the feel free to copy the filter, paper test it for a while and see how it goes, no need to dive straight in. Its quite systematic so i dont need to consider too much in-play, just whether i perceive the value to be there based on odds

EDIT - Please note that the figures are based on there being no goal in that half of play already. So if doing 2+ SH then it has to be the same score as HT, and likewise if doing the LCS

How many months is this over @Lee-woodman? I'm just crious because the 1+ goal around 70mins on is similar to what I'm doing on mine and it's flying at the moment but I have less games.