The BTC Football Trading Thread

Richard Latimer

Looks like Massive value in the Over 2.5 in Naftan game. Naftan have gone over 2.5 100%, Lida 70%. 85% total. Nafta have scored in 100% of games, Lida 80% of games.

One big red flag:

Naftan went 4 consecutive 0-0 games before this incredible run.

Richard Latimer

Moving on to Belarus 1st Division I may LTD at some point in the 2nd half on Slonim. Both teams have scored in plennty of matches but stats not good enough for over 1.5 and show no discernable advantage for either team that I can see.

Richard Latimer

Starting with Belarus reserves:

Isloch Reserves - Doesn't seem much value in the over 1.5 despite this being probable and the away team has only scored in 4 from 6 so not sure value in LTD or LCS. Maybe if drawing @ HT and inplay stats good I may back Isloch.

Ryan

Gorodeja v Bate

Goro 50% Over 0.5 FHG this season at home

Bate 100% Over 0.5 FHG this season away from home

Overall 20% 0-0 @ HT

My original thinking was a FHG goal on this one, the price is currently 1.53 which is higher than my usual entry point, but I am not 100% convinced with the average goal time stats where it puts the goals coming later...

I will keep an eye on this for 0-0 @ HT then will look for a LTD at HT.

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Today's Belarus Premier League Games

Slavia v Minsk - My trade of choice will be 50%% Split Stake

Gorodeya v BATE - My trade of choice will be 50%% Split Stake

Shakhtor v Belshina - My trade of choice will be LTD @ HT if still 0-0 and in-play stats show attacking intent.

For In-Play stats in either game I will be looking for minimum 1 dangerous attack per minute played & 3 SOT by 30/35mins and 4 SOT to enter in SH before entering.

If in-play stats don't reach 3 SOT by 30 minutes will wait untill HT to enter either LTD or over 0.5 goals

At HT - If in doubt of goal before 70mins either hold off 2nd stake or wait untill LTD Price hits 1.98/1.95 & Lay for 0.5pts

At 70mins - If already fully matched with Split Stake & still 0-0 either take the red or LTD at current available odds & Lay same points as in o1.5 goals around 70/75mins & LTD price must be minimum 1.98/1.95 (with this scernario I'm happy to wait until 75mins for better price)

Before entering if you're in any doubt of risking 2pts you can either lower your staking to a total red of 1 or 0.5pts. so you will either halve or quarter the above staking plan.

if I miss entry I will move on.

Entry point 50% Stake = 25/30mins depending on inplay stats

Best of luck!

Ryan

@richard-latimer yes, its worked for me for years!

Richard Latimer

@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer I’m a fan of LTD over LCS just for the odds usually.

I just don't like the betfair suspend monkey plus the cash out, get nothing when dog scores

Ryan

@richard-latimer I’m a fan of LTD over LCS just for the odds usually.

Richard Latimer

@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@pete-smith nicely done!!

I laid draw in the end @ 1.98. May start laying draw more often as opposed to the correct score.

Ryan

@pete-smith nicely done!!

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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

God that’s a boring game and it’s going against my research so I’ll be staying away from it. Unless something changes!

B2L one of the nags at Tampa Bay Downs during HT and made a nice green... multi-tasking!

Ryan

God that’s a boring game and it’s going against my research so I’ll be staying away from it. Unless something changes!

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Stuart Capstick

That O 1.5 price though....

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And now for the big one!

Richard Latimer

@james-everard said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer I was going to lay over 3.5 goals but no edge in the market as lay price at half time is 3.25 wait for the later game and see your views on that how to trade

I'm waiting until HT and if 0-0 will go for a potential 2nd half goal should inplay stats suggest there will be one.

james everard

@richard-latimer I was going to lay over 3.5 goals but no edge in the market as lay price at half time is 3.25 wait for the later game and see your views on that how to trade

Richard Latimer

Way too early with Minsk. Just have to wait and see if Neman is 0-0 @ HT now.

james everard

Anyone looking at the big match at 4pm in Belarus. With only 5 games played hard to analyse the data for this season. But it appears not many games are having goals in the 3rd quarter , so if there has been a goal or two at half time and inplay stats suggest unlikely to be a deluge in the second half maybe lay the over market .No goals have been scored between the 46th and 70th minute. Any other ideas to trade this game ?

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I've backed the Slavia Mozyr v FC Minsk reserves for a FH goal, I fancy Minsk to score early doors.