The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Lay on chelsea this season most be some nice roi or what?
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@martin Hi Martin, no this reduces down to 66% at 15 minutes. From my paper trades, at that point, I am getting odds of around 1.74. A SR of 66% needs 1.53, so I think that is quite a decent edge. I will stick to the overall SR then instead of the individual leagues. Thanks
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@joe-beeston That is an amazing strike rate if you are entering on 15 minutes.
I have a FHG filter and over 20% of the goals are scored before 10 minutes
That rises to over 30% before 15 minutes -
@martin Yes i do Martin, the point im trying to understand is that some of the games on your profit/loss sheet would actually be non qualifiers depending on when you trade. ie yesterday two games qualified in the morning but not near kick off. Do them games go onto Tomaz profit/loss sheet
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@joe-beeston don't change it based on leagues, it's unlikely you have enough data to justify that kind of approach, the difference could just be variance. Is this 77% after 15 mins? That's incredible if so!
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@daniel-heim-råum Tomaz Lay, what im not understanding is what counts towards the results page, eg in the morning the price is within the parameters, but if you want to enter near to kick off with a bot or manually, the price could be outside the parameters so the person who traded in the morning is on but the late trader, like my bot, is not on
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Afternoon all, hope you're all good?
I am currently testing a FH Goals strategy, I am currently carrying a 77% strike rate. I am using a split stake approach, entering on 15minutes and again on 30 minutes.
My question is, 77% implies that I need odds of 1.3; however that is for the overall strategy which contains multiple leagues. 1 league has a strike rate of 91% and one has 65%, so do I stick with the just looking for over 1.3 or do I get more specific and go based on the odds I need for that league? I.E wait for 1.1 or higher on the 91% league and 1.45ish on the 65%?
Hopefully that makes sense?
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lay under 1.5 Suwon City
1-1
Nothing else today
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@david-milligan is that Thomas lay you down or own lay 1.5? Have looked very strong latetly that strategy
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@gary-wall very true. Start price was like 3.75 i slept right after kick off
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Think ive found my mistake. I set the bot to ignore if Lay price was over 3.5 when in fact the filter on Tomaz under 1.5 is set for back price to be equal or under 3.5. So the lay price could be say 3.7 and it would still be ok. Will have to alter and test this morning at minimal stakes as after seeing Johns reply that should have worked on the earlier game
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@gary-wall the one at 22:00 started around 3.8 but the midnight game was 2.6, so might want to check your bot
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@daniel-heim-råum I saw the 2 games yesterday , but i think they kicked off near midnight in Columbia. As i would be asleep by then, i wrote a quick bot but neither of the games triggered. I can only assume i made an error or the price was over 3.5 at kick off . How do i get that info if possible
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@dan-mackinnon How did it look?
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@david-milligan yep I was looking over all the data, over the data I have it looks a really solid strategy to ratchet.
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Thomas Lay under 1.5 was on point tonight 2 games 1-1
