The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Anyone got anything today?
I've gone for a home win in the Adana Demirspor v Istanbulspor match. I got odds of 1.50. Odds are now 1.44
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
Thats really interesting you've tweaked it and found this. I like that you get an extra 5 mins on my exit too.
@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@stephen-brooks-0 the other thing to ask/mention is have you looked at the position within games and whether there is an opportunity to trade out ...for my part I track a LTD strategy that I have tweaked Ryans Betgreen. I record the two scenarios of letting it run and cash out (even on games I decide not to trade). Over the last 300 games as a sample the strike rate if I let it run is 85% whereas if I cash out its 89% .. both profitable over the 300 games and the losing trades have a couple of times come in batches of three .. I tend to follow the staking rules of Ryans .. and cash out with green, if the underdog scores I wait for it go break even or if they score a second I'm out.. But cut losses at around 75 mins because recording the goals on my filter shows that only 6% of first goals come after 66 minutes so the risk of staying in is reducing by the minute if its nil nil at seventy minutes if that makes sense?
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@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@stephen-brooks-0 the other thing to ask/mention is have you looked at the position within games and whether there is an opportunity to trade out ...for my part I track a LTD strategy that I have tweaked Ryans Betgreen. I record the two scenarios of letting it run and cash out (even on games I decide not to trade). Over the last 300 games as a sample the strike rate if I let it run is 85% whereas if I cash out its 89% .. both profitable over the 300 games and the losing trades have a couple of times come in batches of three .. I tend to follow the staking rules of Ryans .. and cash out with green, if the underdog scores I wait for it go break even or if they score a second I'm out.. But cut losses at around 75 mins because recording the goals on my filter shows that only 6% of first goals come after 66 minutes so the risk of staying in is reducing by the minute if its nil nil at seventy minutes if that makes sense?
This is an excellent point, the ltd trades this week would have been profitible especially the Serie A one’s yesterday if traded out instead of letting them run.
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@jon-batten said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@stephen-brooks-0 I'm not the most experienced member here but if I've learnt anything from the process it is to never panic. Use a small percentage of your bank for each selection and play the long game. The members filters are proven long term currently so don't ever look at it day to day.
I find aswell if I want to use a lower stake on the lay the draw strategy I do double chance market on the home/away selection. The back odds work out the same roughly as the lay the draw odds.
This is a great post matey, loving the progress you are making!
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@stephen-brooks-0 the other thing to ask/mention is have you looked at the position within games and whether there is an opportunity to trade out ...for my part I track a LTD strategy that I have tweaked Ryans Betgreen. I record the two scenarios of letting it run and cash out (even on games I decide not to trade). Over the last 300 games as a sample the strike rate if I let it run is 85% whereas if I cash out its 89% .. both profitable over the 300 games and the losing trades have a couple of times come in batches of three .. I tend to follow the staking rules of Ryans .. and cash out with green, if the underdog scores I wait for it go break even or if they score a second I'm out.. But cut losses at around 75 mins because recording the goals on my filter shows that only 6% of first goals come after 66 minutes so the risk of staying in is reducing by the minute if its nil nil at seventy minutes if that makes sense?
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@stephen-brooks-0 said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@Martin Yes I understand and it is hard to take the losers as I said I only started yesterday so I've come in at a bad time. I am also trying a few other strategies but as this one has shown so much promise over the last 6 months if i stake correctly in relation to my bank size I should be able to cover the losers until it picks up again?
The World Cup has had an effect as we expected, I would tread with caution for the time being, make sure you research every trade and don't blindly follow anything
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@stephen-brooks-0 said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@Martin In terms of bank roll management with lay strategies should I be laying 1-2% of my bank or laying an amount which risks 1-2% of my bank?
Is this for set and forget bets you are letting run? In that case I would personally go to 1% as a max liability, gives you 100 big bets then (although I actually prefer 0.5% which gives you 200 big bets which is what a lot of pro Poker players do). It depends how much risk you want to take really.
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@stephen-brooks-0 I have wondered about this before and the guys kindly answered on Youtube clarifying that you should use liability as your percentage of your bank not your stake as if the odds are high you will be risking a higher amount of your bank if the bet doesnt pan out.
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@stephen-brooks-0 said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@Martin In terms of bank roll management with lay strategies should I be laying 1-2% of my bank or laying an amount which risks 1-2% of my bank?
I’ve recently switched to laying to liability from laying to stake. Although potential winnings are less more importantly so are the losses. Risk management is half the battle
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@stephen-brooks-0
I had a great summer and thought i was invincible, bank was upto £600 odd pounds trippled my bank but then variance hit and had 3 losing months which hit my bank.
Had a good end to last month and up £58 so far this month so my bank is back over £400 so i am looking at the positive in a year i have doubled my bank. Not a huge profit but lessons have been learnt over the year on certain strategies entry points/odds ranges etc.
Just remember to start with do one strategy , stick to a staking plan a small percentage of your bank and record your results . The later is important as you can then filter down your selections and dismiss poor performing leagues and find the odds range that is most profitable good luck mate -
@Martin In terms of bank roll management with lay strategies should I be laying 1-2% of my bank or laying an amount which risks 1-2% of my bank?
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@james-everard Thanks James I needed this. Started yesterday and started with the football set and forgets. I've had 5 losers in 2 days with the Dans Lay the draw filter but it has shown profit over the last six months since Martin has been recording the results.
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Advice for any new traders , variance happens if the system has been profitable month on month stick with it and trade no more than 2% of your bank. Over the long term it will turn around
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Anyone here look at implied odds and probability?
Fiorentina v Monza.
Away win probability: 15.4%
Implied odds: 6.49
Lay Monza odds: 4.720 minutes: Fiorentina 1 - 0 Monza
Greened up
@keith-anderson sorry the ignorance,How you got this?
interesting
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@Martin Yes I understand and it is hard to take the losers as I said I only started yesterday so I've come in at a bad time. I am also trying a few other strategies but as this one has shown so much promise over the last 6 months if i stake correctly in relation to my bank size I should be able to cover the losers until it picks up again?
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@stephen-brooks-0 said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@Martin When you say variance do you mean in the short term? Its only had one losing month in 6 so do you advise to stick with it? I know it has lots of credit but obviously I've caught it at a bad time.
The odds that are being layed at will make the bad runs difficult to swallow as you are finding out. If you don’t have the stomach for it best leave this strategy and find another
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@stephen-brooks-0 said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne Yeah make that 4 losers in 2 days so far ha ha
This is a marathon not a sprint
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@mr-emmet-moorehouse Thanks Emmet
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@jon-batten Thanks Jon I'm going to stick with it and only bet 1-2% of my bank to make sure I can cover a losing run. Its just so hard not to analyse day to day!
