The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Going for a SHG in the Swansea v Burnley match. 1-2 at HT
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@keith-anderson This is on my late goal filter so that strike sets it up nicely.
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@keith-anderson they like a good strike in France
.. great call by you -
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Going for a SHG in the Strasbourg v Troyes match. 1-2 at HT
What a strike!!
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Going for a SHG in the Strasbourg v Troyes match. 1-2 at HT
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SHG in the Rangers v Celtic match. 0-1 at HT
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Of my trades today the LTD Sheff Wed vs Cambridge is top of my FHG list
May also go FHG on Brentford Liverpool (its on my LTD too but cautious on it from that point of view)
O1.5 Montpellier Marseille
02.5 - split stake out after 60 mins Hearts Hibs (will be cautious in play because its a Derby) -
@ian-wylie I love the in depth analysis. Spoken like a pro. That is definitely an area for me to work on this year.
My mindset for my own trading seems to be focusing on unders markets. I like having the green early and feeling like I have more control over the trading rather then waiting for a goal. That's just me Currently trying to go against the market I guess.
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@jon-batten said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@ian-wylie this game has also come up on my under 2.5 goals filter so I'm interested to see how this game plays out. Not trading the filter currently as testing. What sort of goals market would you be trading on it based on your filters? And what criteria are you looking for on your goals filters?
That's interesting Jon, sounds like it should be the O1.5 goal line then. It's not appeared on my main SHG filter but has appeared on a FHG filter which I've recently been testing and although I don't have enough results on the FHG filter to trade yet, 83% of the games on it which have a FHG go on to have a SHG as well.
If you look at the recent results for both teams they are both in good form, QP have won their last 5 and Thistle have won 4 and drawn 1 of their last 5 so there is always the risk that they could cancel each other out. On the plus side all of these last 10 games have gone over 1.5 and the last 5 head to heads have done so as well.
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
FHG
02:00 - Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne City - (1.38)
Here's the full FHG List:
FHG:
02:00 - Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne City - (1.38)
15:00 - Swansea City v Burnley - (1.46)
15:00 - Sheffield Wednesday v Cambridge United - (1.36)
15:00 - Barrow v Rochdale - (1.51)
15:00 - St. Johnstone v Dundee United - (1.52)
18:00 - Montpellier v Olympique Marseille - (1.38) -
@ian-wylie this game has also come up on my under 2.5 goals filter so I'm interested to see how this game plays out. Not trading the filter currently as testing. What sort of goals market would you be trading on it based on your filters? And what criteria are you looking for on your goals filters?
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Queens Park v Partick Thistle has come up on a load of my goals filters today, bound to be a 0-0 now
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Going for a SHG in the Adelaide v Perth Glory match. 1-0 at HT
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The other thing that has been interesting has been analysing goal times on filters - so for my LTD which is a tweaked version of Ryans Betgreen.. the SR is 86% if I let it run, 89% if I green up after a goal, but then when I look at goal times - its 89% if I apply those times to my 02.5 staking .. For me, not for the first time, taking a few days to analyse results has opened new opportunities
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@keith-anderson interestingly I've been analysing my data over Christmas looking at FHG and across my LTD. O1.5 and 02.5 Filters I'm getting 78-79% of First Goals being in the first half.. so have been working on two things: one a staking plan and criteria to narrow down selections and bump that percentage up a little
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@mr-emmet-moorehouse said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
FHG
02:00 - Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne City - (1.38)
If you can conquer the FHG market, you deserve the Nobel Prize for Gambling.
@mr-emmet-moorehouse said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
FHG
02:00 - Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne City - (1.38)
If you can conquer the FHG market, you deserve the Nobel Prize for Gambling.
I know. I've been trying to do it for years! I'm stubborn though and determined to conquer it!
Me too, it always seems just out of reach though but I’m hoping i may have found a decent under 1.5 goals set and forget I’m testing. Needs 2-3 more months I feel though.
It’s the second google sheet attached to the thread below if anyones interested.
https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3874/first-blog-second-half-goal-any-score-line
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@mr-emmet-moorehouse said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
FHG
02:00 - Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne City - (1.38)
If you can conquer the FHG market, you deserve the Nobel Prize for Gambling.
@mr-emmet-moorehouse said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
FHG
02:00 - Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne City - (1.38)
If you can conquer the FHG market, you deserve the Nobel Prize for Gambling.
I know. I've been trying to do it for years! I'm stubborn though and determined to conquer it!
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
FHG
02:00 - Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne City - (1.38)
If you can conquer the FHG market, you deserve the Nobel Prize for Gambling.
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@chris-osborne Plus a freak third goal.
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FHG
02:00 - Wellington Phoenix v Melbourne City - (1.38)
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game...
