The BTC Football Trading Thread

[Richard Latimer]

@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@lee-woodman i have a shg filter that jumps from 85% to 91% with 1-0 removed. Cant figure out how to get 1-0 to work on it at all

When I was looking at SHG, in the most base form at all I found short odds home favourites were the way to go.

[Richard Latimer]

A few more than of recent today:

Lay Over 3.5:

Lay Under 1.5:

Not the Israeli game yet actually as not enough data to support.

[Mark Maguire]

Here's a random one posted for no other reason than its interesting.. looking at form of Championship Teams , League one and league two..

In the championship teams 12th and below over the last five games .. have won only ten games between them.. compared to 20 Plus in League one and two.

I feel a back against the crap team in a championship strategy coming on..

[A Former User]

@lee-woodman I know Lee, I'm continuing to track them for now. I suppose 1 thing to look at would be if the underdog is ahead then does that increase the chance of a SHG if it'd 1-0 or 0-1.

[Akiva Anderson]

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

SHG in the Central Coast v Western Sydney match. 1-1 at HT

Nice when your morning trade comes in. Means you aren't rowing against the tide all day

[Martin Walker]

@lee-woodman i have a shg filter that jumps from 85% to 91% with 1-0 removed. Cant figure out how to get 1-0 to work on it at all

[Akiva Anderson]

@ian-wylie said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

So an Ex - Member of BTC contacted me by private message on Twitter asking me if I was going for a SHG in the Newcastle Jets v Brisbane Roar match this morning. It was 0-0 at HT. I told him I was. He normally doesn't go for a SHG if it's 0-0 at HT. He showed me the goal scoring stats. They were dire for both teams (which is the reason why I didn't lay Under 1.5 Goals). I showed him the 0-0 FT scoreline has only occurred in 3.85% of A-League matches this season and I thought that the odds offered at 1.31 at HT were quite generous considering.

I always find it fascinating how we each interpret stats.

Interesting Keith, I don't mind the 0-0 HT score based on my filter data. I listed the HT scores below and the percentages for a SHG at each scoreline:

I'm more reluctant to enter at 1-0, 2-1, 0-2, if I remove those 3 HT scores then the filter improves to over 87%

I love the 2-2 HT scoreline. I constantly seek it out. You'll normally find a few on a Saturday

[A Former User]

@ian-wylie 2 of those scores do have a small sample size and just a few winners can change the picture dramatically so I would be reluctant to remove 2-1 and 0-2.

Interestingly I often found 1-0 and 0-1 to be difficult and it appears you have the same. I may have to re-look at my own data on my current filters

[Akiva Anderson]

SHG in the Central Coast v Western Sydney match. 1-1 at HT

[A Former User]

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

So an Ex - Member of BTC contacted me by private message on Twitter asking me if I was going for a SHG in the Newcastle Jets v Brisbane Roar match this morning. It was 0-0 at HT. I told him I was. He normally doesn't go for a SHG if it's 0-0 at HT. He showed me the goal scoring stats. They were dire for both teams (which is the reason why I didn't lay Under 1.5 Goals). I showed him the 0-0 FT scoreline has only occurred in 3.85% of A-League matches this season and I thought that the odds offered at 1.31 at HT were quite generous considering.

I always find it fascinating how we each interpret stats.

Interesting Keith, I don't mind the 0-0 HT score based on my filter data. I listed the HT scores below and the percentages for a SHG at each scoreline:

I'm more reluctant to enter at 1-0, 2-1, 0-2, if I remove those 3 HT scores then the filter improves to over 87%

[Mark Maguire]

Its Saturday and the list is too long as ever but a snap shot of selections here .. still narrowing down but always cautious on Saturdays because its been a day that can be difficult. Trading may be curtailed early evening because I've got tickets to Marseille Monaco . may try and drop in some in play observations

LTD

Darmstadt vs Regensburg
Rangers vs St Johnstone (need odds to come in)
Cremonese vs Inter
Bayern vs Frankfurt

All will be 01.5

Further O1.5;

Partick vs Hamilton
Alkmaar vs Utrecht

02.5 (split stake out after 60 mins if no goal)

Waalwijk vs Emmen
Bayern vs Frankfurt
Dynamo Zagreb vs Lok Zagreb.. warning I have been burnt twice this week by Croatia

FHG

Waalwijk
Bayern
Maybe Zagreb .. but don't know if I have forgiven them,, and its a derby..

All the above subject to looking at team news etc in the final hour before kick off

[Mark Maguire]

@Martin got to love a full house . I've been arguing with myself over set and forget vs greening up on my LTD .. so far the return would have been almost identical over the last 300 plus games (when I tweaked the filter) .. Its a mental thing for me I think at the moment - I like the inplay element and my analysis has also thrown up really good percentages of O1.5 goals for the LTD selections so I like to be in the game to try and exploit both .. but will continue to look at it and maybe the future will be automation .. but still learning so will keep compiling the data and see where it takes me.

[Martin]

@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@mark-maguire got these for LTD set & forget today, interested in your thoughts...

Scotland Championship 27/01/2023 19:45:00 Cove Rangers Ayr 3.8
Italy Serie A 27/01/2023 19:45:00 Lecce Salernitana 3.6
France Ligue 1 27/01/2023 20:00:00 Lorient Rennes 3.7

Mark these went 3/3 happy days!

[Mark Maguire]

@Martin told you the French game would be a thrashing .... ooh third goal ruled out.. still time for me to be proved less wrong than at present

[Mark Maguire]

@keith-anderson

[Akiva Anderson]

@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@keith-anderson stop bloody tempting me

You’re not finished until I tell ya

[Mark Maguire]

@keith-anderson alright I'll let you off

[Mark Maguire]

@keith-anderson stop bloody tempting me

[Akiva Anderson]

SHG in the Cove Rangers v Ayr United match. 0-1 at HT

[Mark Maguire]

All done for me tonight including;

LTD

Zwolle vs Oss (Will need odds to come in) greened up
Leipzig vs Stuttgart greened up

Both will be 01.5

Leipzig also a FHG

02.5 Split stakes (out after 60 mins if no goal)

Den Bosch vs Maastricht
Cove Rangers vs Ayr greened up

Den Bosch will also be FHG