The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@martin-walker 1-0
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Sligo fhg 1.55 before kick off. Home team favourite with 100% fhg record
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@james-everard definitely a tough nut to crack. Thanks for sharing your filter man. I felt the same way as you when i get a good streak of fhg all coming before i can get my bet on then have a few losers. Good for willpower this business though. The ups and downs become easier to take over time.
I'm just paper trading a derivative of Dari's but using a strict odds filter as well. Looking 20mins+ with average bookie odds of 1.25 for the FHG which should be closer to 1.3ish+ on betfair. Subsequently after 20 mins I'm probably looking at closer to 1.6-1.7min.
Doesn't get a massive amount of qualifiers presently but I think there's something in it.
Trying to follow the advice from the professionals here about recording data. The only way is to get at least 100 games worth of results for a strategy and then i can further filter to remove leagues/teams that are not performing.
I have changed my filter for this system , and am going to start recording for a 100 games and will come back with the results then. Here is my new filter for the 1st half goal system and will be tracking (results only) by backing on 25mins and 38mins with £2 stakes as opposed the original system of 4 x £2 stakes split. May not produce many matches on the filter but will let you know in time.Overall Ht 0-0 less/ equal to 25%
Overall matches played greater/equal to 10
Home matches played greater/equal to 5
Away matches played less/equal to 5
Home half time 0-0 less/equal to 25%
Away half time 0-0 less/equal to 25%
Overall goals 21-30 + 31-45mins equal/greater than 10
Overall goals 21-30 +31-45mins equal/greater than 30%
Overall 1st goal scored time average- Greater /equal to 25mins
Overall goals 0-10 + 11-20mins - less/equal to 25% -
With it only being the nations league i believe southgate used it to trial a few players, this wasnt close to our actual starting line up for a major tournament. So i could see him putting out another strange line up against denmark
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@ryan-carruthers not at all mate. Yeah they're horrible, love to build them up but can't wait to stick the knife in.
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@ben-dobie I bet, not a man you mess with. Our media is so killer for football though - so many footballers have said that when they leave about the media
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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
That is true, who was the last solid number 1 for club and England?
Our Media kills them, with Pickford it's gone to his head ... he's forgotten the basics and needs to concentrate on being the good keeper he is rather than trying to be a superstar and playing up to the camera. He's on thin ice with Ancelotti
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
seeing some good value in backing england tomorrow at 2.14. Playing a completely different team to Iceland. Denmark will have a go and this will play into englands hands. Can see the odds coming in before the match tomorrow with mugs punting on england, only 20k matched so far
It's an interesting game.
Denmark have a new manager (his first game was against Belgium), who wants us to play a bit more attacking than the previous did. He did not have a great start with a 0-2 defeat at home vs Belgium, especially considering Denmark hadn't lost 35 "important" games in a row within normal time*, a pretty spectacular record.
Christian Eriksen hasn't played well in a year or so. His last 6 months at Spurs weren't good and he hasn't settled well at Inter, where the style of play that Conte plays, doesn't suit Eriksen at all. Looks like a bad move by him. He had been excellent and extremely important for our attacking play under the previous manager, so if he does not pick up his game, we're in trouble.
*) We did lose vs Croatia in the world cup 2018 but that from a penalty shoot-out, so the game in itself finished a draw
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@ben-dobie said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@ryan-carruthers @Finn-Kristensen they all go down hill once they get that England No.1 shirt
Pope or Henderson
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@ryan-carruthers @Finn-Kristensen they all go down hill once they get that England No.1 shirt
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@finn-kristensen Nick Pope!
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@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
seeing some good value in backing england tomorrow at 2.14. Playing a completely different team to Iceland. Denmark will have a go and this will play into englands hands. Can see the odds coming in before the match tomorrow with mugs punting on england, only 20k matched so far
Good shout but will be reserving judgement on England until I see the team sheet. If the likes of Pickford, Dier and Winks etc are playing none of whom should be in the squad let alone playing won’t even bother watching
I thought Pickford was a decent keeper. Who is your best if not him?
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@chris-osborne aye will reserve judgement too, i think he will play a strong team. Hopefully no dier although he did get captains armband in sh the other day....he is awful. Like a pub player. At very worst i will trade out before match for a small profit. Can only see the odds going one way
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@chris-osborne agreed! lol
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
seeing some good value in backing england tomorrow at 2.14. Playing a completely different team to Iceland. Denmark will have a go and this will play into englands hands. Can see the odds coming in before the match tomorrow with mugs punting on england, only 20k matched so far
Good shout but will be reserving judgement on England until I see the team sheet. If the likes of Pickford, Dier and Winks etc are playing none of whom should be in the squad let alone playing won’t even bother watching
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seeing some good value in backing england tomorrow at 2.14. Playing a completely different team to Iceland. Denmark will have a go and this will play into englands hands. Can see the odds coming in before the match tomorrow with mugs punting on england, only 20k matched so far
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@Martin-Futter Hi Martin, is there a link to any entry / exit strategy associated with the second half goals matches that you release on the daily trading angles? Sorry but i can't seem to find one
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@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@john-hurst
I think Darri made a good point about FHG. Yes, you go through the historic stats and look at the inplay action, but as you know, posts can be rattling, one team getting panzered and no goal; other times, a snoozefest and a goal at, say 30 mins. He made the point that it is much more subjective than say, LTD or overs in the SH.
I don't know; maybe some people can just read matches better and can pull together all the above to spot the opportunity. For me, it is more of a systematic set and forget.
sorry been away all day today and only just saw this. For anyone looking to get involved in FHGs i would be happy for people to have a look at the FHG project im building on my road to full time thread. Stuart is right here i believe based on the time of the match it becomes very difficult to assess when a goal is coming. I would therefore base every FHG i do with a systematic approach. FHGs are actually the first markets i tried to learn from scratch. I tried using inplay stats or action and it just would be too up and down. I tried split stakes approaches and what i found there was, lets say you have done good research and you put the first part in and the you get the goal. Your not getting rewarded enough for your efforts, instead your just lumping on later in games and adding money to losers. From my data i collected its a market that works well systematically. What i mean by that is find out what strike rate you have over a decent number of games. If it is 75% or more then using odds of 1.4 or above is making profit long term. For me the edge would need to be rewarding so id look for anything over 1.5. For these odds your likely to be matched before 20 mins in most games. I find that most goals come within 15-30 mins. For anyone wanting to build a FHG strat feel free to come follow our FHG project on my thread and you will be pleasantly surprised. Covid hasnt seemed to affected them. opinions rule this market thats why i always encourage people to base this off of data. Using my thread you can see how we have built the filter only using the data we collected. I find the FHGs to be a very consistent bank builder. On the thread you will see the filter along with the tracked results, what leagues to follow etc. I hope this helps
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@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer Yea I have no doubt your stats would also back up entering that one 100% of the time. Just after the last few days of Aug wiped out my profits for that month I am 2nd (and 3rd) guessing myself all the time
I know what you mean. That's when it's hardest. You have to be decisive without being reckless.
