The BTC Football Trading Thread

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@james-everard definitely a tough nut to crack. Thanks for sharing your filter man. I felt the same way as you when i get a good streak of fhg all coming before i can get my bet on then have a few losers. Good for willpower this business though. The ups and downs become easier to take over time.

james everard

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@john-hurst I think there are other markets which are easier to crack than the FH market to be honest. Id be interested to know if anyone out there has done it for a sustained timeframe or if any pro's have done it longer term, it just seems to be a market which is appealing yet elusive.

Tried without success trading as per Frodes way of trading tried 4 x £2 split stakes backs on the the over 0.5fh goals market on 21,29,34 and 39mins. Great if you can get a goal after 39mins but i was finding you could have 2 or 3 on the bounce end up 0-0 and £24 lost. The filter looks good but just wasn't getting the strike rate but i only traded a few matches. I am now paper trading ( without money on a spreadsheet ) so will let you know in 2-3 months or when i get at least 100 matches of data to see if i have given up too early, or if i need to make alterations to the filter / time of entry and leagues to omit.
The filter i have set up is as follows
Overall HT 0-0 % less than equal to 25%
Overall goals 21-30+31-45mins greater than/equal to 6
Overall matches played greater/equal to 10
Home matches played equal/ greater than 5
Away matches played equal/greater than 5
Home % 0-0 HT - Equal/less than 25%
Away % 0-0 HT - Equal/less than 25%

Another frustration with this system is so many matches have goals in the first 20mins so you have to try to accept if you have 5 matches on your filter that have a goal in the first 20 and then the next 3 end up 0-0 at half time can be very hard to take!

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@matt-wood we will mate. On the up

Matt Wood

@john-hurst yep I am back for that one later too, fingers crossed we get some green out of that

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Back later on for vasteras match for potential SH goal. High chance of BTTS in that one

Matt Wood

@john-hurst Yea it was close though, sure I saw it hit 1.5 for a sec

Finn Kristensen

Am out now - lost 0.37 pts. Could have been much worse.

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@matt-wood unfortunately not mate, must have just missed nevermind though

Matt Wood

@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@finn-kristensen statistically they should get one, 0% fh goals scored at home, 100% scored sh. Definitely a sh team. Have queued at 1.51 and 2.01 as a split stake for over 0.5. Wont take long for first bit to be matched

Did you get matched? I was queued for 1.51 too but no match

Finn Kristensen

@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@finn-kristensen statistically they should get one, 0% fh goals scored at home, 100% scored sh. Definitely a sh team. Have queued at 1.51 and 2.01 as a split stake for over 0.5. Wont take long for first bit to be matched

Goal!

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@finn-kristensen statistically they should get one, 0% fh goals scored at home, 100% scored sh. Definitely a sh team. Have queued at 1.51 and 2.01 as a split stake for over 0.5. Wont take long for first bit to be matched

Finn Kristensen

@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Umea should be good for a sh goal currently 0-0 HT

I am on an O2.5, backed at around 8 minutes in. Pretty dreadful so far but hope for an early goal in sh.

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Umea should be good for a sh goal currently 0-0 HT

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Ulsan behind 0-1. Laid @ 2.5.

1-1

Finn Kristensen

I don't think I ever see anyone advocate for the use of Martingale anymore. I think there's a general consensus that Martingale is the fast lane to the poor house.

There are loads of various recovery systems out there (Fibonacci, Lay 1-4, Labouchere, etc.), but really the best staking system is quite simply the compounding one. No, it's not a recovery system as such, but all recovery systems suffer from the fact that you will increase your liability after every loser and it's simply not a healthy way to manage your bank. I won't claim that all of them are bad, as some are more conservative and can be used properly if the strike rate permits it, but Martingale is never the answer.

Richard Latimer

@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

No question is too silly they said...

haha....it's not. There's just a wealth of information to steer you clear of the martingale hopefully.

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No question is too silly they said...

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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@john-hurst

I think you have partially answered your own question, John.
There really is no telling with FH, unlike SH. Whether it's to do with greater urgency in the SH, who knows?
That's why, for me at least, and others have said this, FHG is a value bet. Wait until the price represents value, e.g. 80% strike rate and the price is 1.51= value.

Why not use the martingale? For me, simply because you can, with an 80% strike rate over 1,000 games, have a losing run of around 4. With a martingale system, that can be a hefty blow to your bank.

@John-Hurst

I see where the talk of likely losing streaks have come from now. Martingale is just an absolute no no. Someone once phrased it me that when you have to keep placing recovery bets to essentially get to the same position you are trading for example 50% of your bank to reach the exact same point you were on the first bet. So maybe half your bank to make 1pt after a bit. You wouldn't do it on the first bet so it would be crazy to do it on the 4th, 5th or 6th. Also if you think of like that, it's some seriously skinny odds you are taking!

I posted loads of tables on longest likely losing streak and the fact of the matter is the more bets you have placed the longer your longest expected losing streak could be statistically speaking.

In the end, even if you had the balls to keep placing those massive recovery bets, you would run out of stake in order to do it.

So over 100 bets at 80% you're longest likely losing streak is 3. That in itself is enough to make you sweat using martingale. Over 4000 bets that number rises to 6. Ouch!! And there's no telling at which point you reach this milestone. You MAY hit 6 after only 100 or even 50 bets. Plus, just because you have an average of 80% doesn't mean each selection will be 80%. That would be impossible to determine. If you hit a run of fixtures with only 70% chance of the FHG then your losing streak could go up to as many as 8 over the long-term. A sure bank buster.

Lastly, your next bet is just as likely to lose or win as the last one you placed. One outcome has no input on the other regardless of how.manu losses or wins came before it. They are individual events and must be treated as such.

The other important point is the fact that these estimations of losing runs are just that: likely longest losing streaks.

They could well be longer. If you are using the martingale and have an expected losing run of 4, what happens if the run extends to 6?

There's a reason nobody uses the Martingale recovery system.

I remember when I first started getting into betting and knew absolutely nothing. That's when thw martingale seems plausible and foolproof. Then you realise it's just plain foolish.

I must be a fool then

Richard Latimer

Anybody else hate bet365's new interface? So much harder to find stuff now. The inplay stats console isn't as intuitive either.

Richard Latimer

Ulsan behind 0-1. Laid @ 2.5.