The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@mark-maguire thanks, i was interested in your style of trading as i was getting a lot of early goals on my shg filters. I have tracked todays in a similar fashion to see how things would of played out
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@martin-walker Martin I treat them as separate trades but basically it came about because when I did the analysis on my LTD trades I found out from the goal times and total goals that the percentage of 01.5 or within the first goal time I need for green in O1.5 was around 90% .. I have a separate 01.5 filter which is performing similarly - if a game features on both then its one I get more aggressive on. But in every case subject the game to stats analysis to decide what to trade
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@mark-maguire cheers, i was trying to figure out the reason you were entering LTD and ov 1.5 markets and what differences you were doing with each
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@martin-walker Most of the time yes.. only stay in if a) The goal is early and stats strong or b) goal is early and has been scored by the underdog
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@mark-maguire are you greening up when theres a goal on your ov 1.5 aswell
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@stuart-wallace-0 not far from me that.. its a nice area .. very different mentality to the rest of France .
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@stuart-wallace-0 Mental .. on the way to the game the two French guys were saying how they should refuse the reported offer of 40 million from Villa for Guendouzi.. I was saying sell him.. then he was awful first half, Monaco really good and should have been 3 up. Guendouzi taken off and the second half was mental .. should have been 4-2 to Marseille in the second half alone.. so they now agree get rid of Guendouzi...
Its always a good atmosphere there but so different to home because there are no away fans to speak of.. and its all about the Tifo .. and easy for the fans to look aggressive when they're only shouting at themselves and 11 Monaco players 
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@matthew-harrison I don't have a fixed rule as such its about value for me and then risk that I feel comfortable with..I lean towards trades that have the draw at below 5 if I have a selection to choose from but depends how confident I feel in the stats.. If a game has decent odds and has good odds for either FHG or over 1.5 then I will be more aggressive
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What’s you’re max odds btw ? I also have Genk but I’ve just placed a order in the market for 5 on the draw. See if it gets matched.
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Set and forget for me is more profitable since I started my filter in July. I never ever normally look at the results till about 2 hours after they have finished. However I had a bad day with last minute goals yesterday so my confidence has taking a hit. Today and probably the next few weeks I’m cashing out in the 90th minute if there’s only a goal in it, until this mad post World Cup phase settles down .
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@matthew-harrison not a problem I wouldn't lay the blame on you..
As Martin has said elsewhere worth greening up but equally depends what suits you and your filter ! My personal choice is to green up because I hate that pit of the stomach feeling in the east ten minutes when you are waiting for something to happen .. or not happen.. Others are good with set and forget and there's no right or wrong .. I've measured all my trades on LTD to see what the return would be if I set and forget and its very similar but I can't take the stress -
I had Milan on my LTD today. I have to admit I was sweating in the 82nd minute when Milan scored to make it 2-5
can’t take two 5-5 draws 12 hours apart -
Sorry to let you know mark but I have all the same selections for my LTD. Nailed on for draws now giving my luck this weekend
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So a selection for today .. greening up when and if goals go in.
LTD
Legia vs Korona
Fenerbahce vs Kasımpasa
Waregem vs Club Bruge
Genk vs Seraing (odds a bit long at present )All will be 01.5
Also 01.5
Slavia Prague vs Jablonec
Dundee Utd vs CelticFHG
Genk vs Seraing
Slavia Prague also FHG -
@paul-sheridan I know the market bizarre .. and still wouldn't write off Milan getting one or two so greened up after the 4th for the LTD and happy enough with the green from the other two trades
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@mark-maguire A really chaotic first half and the market really didn't know how to react to it; the prices were all over the place.
Really glad to be out at half time on it as I LTD.
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Madness in Milan but out now with profit;
LTD
01.5
FHG -
Bit late starting my analysis today. But to start with LTD AC Milan and 01.5 and FHG... DOH They scored as I typed .. sorry too late
.. and now its been disallowed
