The BTC Football Trading Thread

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Palestino behind. Managed to get a lay on at 1.76. Quite a bit higher than that now.

They did just about everything but score. Glad I got that 1.76 now.

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@gary-brown im not 100% sure but I think martin was testing that strat.

Stuart Capstick

I'd say the value here lies in the forum.
On BTC you have very successful pros willing to help and offering great advice alongside people starting out who bring something new to the table in terms of ideas.
All of this without any pissing contests or belittling. There is an implicit understanding here that we each work in different ways and that is to be respected. Curiosity is encouraged.

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Definitely think balance is key in terms of which resources you use. BTC is by far the best at combining strategies, education and mindset.

There are loads of alternative free resources out there, but none of them pull it all together like this place.

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thanks guys for getting back to me.
i am a member of both UFT and here.
Personally i only use one of the UFT strategies and that is the second half goal one. And i dont split stake it as well this is the place i have learned alot from and will stay here as the community and support here is fantastic and i do love the filters which i use alongside the free stuff out their.

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@matthew-biggins Agree with most of what you said but your last paragraph probably sums it up the best.

As a new trader, felt it was very clique and difficult to get your point across also considering the cost the lack of support is staggering.

I'm definitely in a better place at BTC

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@gary-brown
Not a UFT member but was on their new Facebook group for about a week before I left.

Seems to me like it was more of a marketing ploy for the new strategy than anything else. There was few decent nuggets but they were lost under the weight of all the Goal Machine posts. It seemed like a really unhelpful place for a newbie. Far too many 'BOOOM's' and out of context green screens for me.

One thing I will say is that the UFT strategies seem to be profitable from the outside but the idea of paying so much for just one strategy seems a bit off to me, especially when there doesn't seem to be a readily available P/L document. In answer to your question though, I would imagine that whatever they release is probably profitable in testing as they are experienced traders.

From what I saw, this Glenn Kirkham appears to develop strategies purely based around price rather than pre/in game stats. I guess it depends whether it fits your trading style as to whether it will be worthwhile or not.

The main difference between here and there is that the UFT community seems to be a constant sales pitch more than a place for beginners to improve their trading. Despite what they say I think UFT is far better for more advanced traders than newbies.

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Any UFT memebrs online guys.
I was going to ask about L.I.O.N

IS IT TOO GOOD BE TRUE?

Anyone know Glen Kirkham well?

please inbox me guys. any advice and tips would be most welcome

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guys i have discovered a great football stats website which is free that you can use alongside BTC filters and the free website called soccerstats.

It is called Goalstatistics

please let me know what you think.
I think its a great resource especailly when you can download spreadsheets to help with your selections Please take a look i am sure you will find it useful.

Richard Latimer

Palestino behind. Managed to get a lay on at 1.76. Quite a bit higher than that now.

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@stuart-capstick yes 100%.

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@richard-latimer in general I'd say this makes a huge amount of sense to me. Essentially it seems to me like you're talking about deviation from fair value, which is something I deal with a lot in the day job. Essentially a team performance over time is influenced by a lot of factors but they behave similarly to odds or a stock price, you will get deviations from FV but eventually the market (or team) will correct to their fair value (mean average). The golden nugget is in accurately estimating the mismatch. The market analogy is much better than a coin toss for the reasons you point out, a team isn't a coin toss it's a complex interaction of actors spitting out a given result

Stuart Capstick

@richard-latimer

May be an angle there for going against the market.
If a team has 100% O 2.5 in the last 5 games, they will certainly revert to the mean. The point would be to work out likely maximum runs of whatever stat you are looking at.
For example, in your comeback model, eventually a team that consistently comes back is going to succumb. That could be a very profitable trade as the market prices in the comeback.
Actually, I sense a potential idea for a data trawl. Will get back to you if I find anything.

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@martin-futter will have a look later mate I’ve never used that before ... thanks for the heads up

Daniel Cooper

@richard-latimer

Hi Rich! Sorry I didn’t get back to you, I agreed completely with what you were saying, some very interesting food for though thats worth pondering for sure! Didn’t have any input though I’m afraid!

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Thought I'd start a talking point. I've always found when looking at any filter that the higher the stat in some cases the worse the results achieved. We all know the thinking that something is 'due' in betting/trading circles is no more than hogwash. A coin flipped the 1000th time has exactly the same chance of landing on either side as the one flipped the very 1st time.

But football matches aren't coins, they are 2 teams of 11 human beings who the more something happens will feel the pressure to continue making it happen and the more pressure they feel the less likely something is to happen.

This accounts for why no team since Arsenal has managed to go unbeaten. They all start the season thinking they can do it and every year one seems to be getting close to the point everyone won't shut up about it but sooner or later performances dip, results start to suffer and inevitably a loss is recorded. When Arsenal did it they scraped to the end with draw after draw.

To see a team with 70% over 2.5 can be quite common, 80% happens a bit too but then 90% is a true rarity and I can't recall any with 100% at least not in the odds range I would consider.

So is it too much of a surprise when 70% has a much better s/r than 80%+

Looking at it from the point of view of a comeback. There are many teams who have achieved 100% comebacks only falling behind on 2 or 3 occasions in 10. There are many who have fallen behind as much as 4 or 5 times and still managed to come back but is it a surprise when a team continues to fall behind that eventually they are going to lose. I'm noticing in my trial that first of all there aren't many. When there are a team that has been behind 7 times in 10 games and managed to come back in 6 of those is way less likely to do so again than a team who have been behind say 3 or 4 times and managed to come back all but once. After all, every single time that team is falling behind in the end they're not saying oh well boys we knew this was going to happen. They're saying oh no not again, FFS!!

I think there are some stats where the higher the better. The averages for example (although not always) but when dealing in pure percentages it seems to be me there is a sweet spot where something has happened.....but not too much.

Interested in other peoples thoughts on this?

Was hoping that get a bit more feedback on this but other than @Ben-Dobie nobody else has offered an opinion. Another thing I forgot to say is that if a team is riding sky high on overs or comebacks how long until they return to their mean average because you get to a point where the current is no longer sustainable.

To bring it back to an Arsenal analogy. In Unai Emery's first year I think year we were scoring enough goals, coming back from being behind and had a stupidly low xg. It wasn't sustainable and we all know what happened there.

Daniel Cooper

Heres to a good start to October for everyone, continued implementation of good habits and discipline, and hopefully some green! I’ve yet to start today as all my trades are later on, but best of luck all

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@martin-futter yeah I was surprised when I heard him mention those odds

Martin

@ben-dobie said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@lee-woodman Yeah I've got 1.6 down on my results sheet from kick off and that is profitable at 67% with around 7% ROI on £10 stakes....obviously if you're getting 1.7/1.8 on that instead then the ROI is doubling each tick.

Let us know how you get on. BTW I did track the FHG goal odds on a few games and found that for the first 15 mins it went up about 15 ticks but 25 mins was around 65 ticks

Check the bookie odds on betexplorer, if you were beating those you have a profitable system!

Martin

@ben-dobie said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@lee-woodman I've got a theory on FHG which I'm going to test out, might be complete nonsense but will obviously share if it works out.

Regarding BTTS my filter is giving me 67% s/r from kick off and 61% from 15 mins, I watched a video from Caan Berry the other day where he reckons starting odds are between 1.9 & 2.0 in this market but I can't see that being the case across a lot of the leagues we trade. What sort of s/r are you getting on yours ?

I would take his knowledge of football with a pinch of salt myself, he markets other sports but from what I have heard his only real knowledge is in Horse Racing