The BTC Football Trading Thread

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@richard-latimer This is a great point Richard and I agree 100% with it, it's only human nature that if something has happened so many times on the spin that it's going to be at the forefront of somebody's thinking and that has to have an affect imo.

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@lee-woodman Yeah I've got 1.6 down on my results sheet from kick off and that is profitable at 67% with around 7% ROI on £10 stakes....obviously if you're getting 1.7/1.8 on that instead then the ROI is doubling each tick.

Let us know how you get on. BTW I did track the FHG goal odds on a few games and found that for the first 15 mins it went up about 15 ticks but 25 mins was around 65 ticks

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@ben-dobie said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@lee-woodman I've got a theory on FHG which I'm going to test out, might be complete nonsense but will obviously share if it works out.

Regarding BTTS my filter is giving me 67% s/r from kick off and 61% from 15 mins, I watched a video from Caan Berry the other day where he reckons starting odds are between 1.9 & 2.0 in this market but I can't see that being the case across a lot of the leagues we trade. What sort of s/r are you getting on yours ?

Yeah i watched that and i agree, i dont think we would get those sorts of odds on the higher scoring games, which is what were tending to look at. On my SH filter its 63% and 58% so not great though its one market i intend to look a bit more into as my wider filter can probably create a filter with a better hit rate.

I dont really have many games over the next couple of days so cant check but id guess 80% of our selections would achieve between 1.6-1.8 from KO. Id like to know what the decay is like so may track some games and record from KO to HT and see how the prices decay

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@lee-woodman I've got a theory on FHG which I'm going to test out, might be complete nonsense but will obviously share if it works out.

Regarding BTTS my filter is giving me 67% s/r from kick off and 61% from 15 mins, I watched a video from Caan Berry the other day where he reckons starting odds are between 1.9 & 2.0 in this market but I can't see that being the case across a lot of the leagues we trade. What sort of s/r are you getting on yours ?

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@matthew-biggins said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Think I’m leaving FHG’s for a while. Not that I don’t think it’s not profitable, it’s just I don’t seem to have that much success with it. For me second half goals are much easier to find. Makes sense for me to focus on those more

Im the same as you on this. Ive run several filters, ive even had a filter with very open criteria which ive manually tried to narrow down and cant seem to make anything work. So im not even looking at FHG's for now, seems easier to create filters for SH goals, O1.5, O2.5, BTTS so may aswell stick to those.

Incidentally i know lots of people who do well out of these markets but dont know of anyone who consistently does well out of FHG's.

Richard Latimer

@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer i was thinking something similar the other day where i thought the stat of 100% fhg meant they were due a first half with no goal

Yeah but like I said, the idea that something is 'due' is for the punters who throw darts at the wall. I'm trying to look at this in terms of mentality. Same applies though sure. 100% FHG for both teams is incredibly rare so the more something like that is happening maybe the more people are talking about it and in the end perhaps team A just thinks we need to tighten up here or the pressure gets too much and maybe both teams end up firing 10 or 20 blanks in the first 40 minutes or going into their shell and not making any attacking moves.

Another thing to think about is 2 attacking teams can sometimes completely nullify each other to the extent I've wandered about pitching one strong attack against one week defence and seeing what the outcome would be longterm.

Martin Walker

@richard-latimer i was thinking something similar the other day where i thought the stat of 100% fhg meant they were due a first half with no goal

Richard Latimer

Thought I'd start a talking point. I've always found when looking at any filter that the higher the stat in some cases the worse the results achieved. We all know the thinking that something is 'due' in betting/trading circles is no more than hogwash. A coin flipped the 1000th time has exactly the same chance of landing on either side as the one flipped the very 1st time.

But football matches aren't coins, they are 2 teams of 11 human beings who the more something happens will feel the pressure to continue making it happen and the more pressure they feel the less likely something is to happen.

This accounts for why no team since Arsenal has managed to go unbeaten. They all start the season thinking they can do it and every year one seems to be getting close to the point everyone won't shut up about it but sooner or later performances dip, results start to suffer and inevitably a loss is recorded. When Arsenal did it they scraped to the end with draw after draw.

To see a team with 70% over 2.5 can be quite common, 80% happens a bit too but then 90% is a true rarity and I can't recall any with 100% at least not in the odds range I would consider.

So is it too much of a surprise when 70% has a much better s/r than 80%+

Looking at it from the point of view of a comeback. There are many teams who have achieved 100% comebacks only falling behind on 2 or 3 occasions in 10. There are many who have fallen behind as much as 4 or 5 times and still managed to come back but is it a surprise when a team continues to fall behind that eventually they are going to lose. I'm noticing in my trial that first of all there aren't many. When there are a team that has been behind 7 times in 10 games and managed to come back in 6 of those is way less likely to do so again than a team who have been behind say 3 or 4 times and managed to come back all but once. After all, every single time that team is falling behind in the end they're not saying oh well boys we knew this was going to happen. They're saying oh no not again, FFS!!

I think there are some stats where the higher the better. The averages for example (although not always) but when dealing in pure percentages it seems to be me there is a sweet spot where something has happened.....but not too much.

Interested in other peoples thoughts on this?

James Woodroffe

@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Laid U0.5 at Huesca v Atletico 1.57 on 77.

Oh well.

James Woodroffe

Laid U0.5 at Huesca v Atletico 1.57 on 77.

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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Will be backing over 2.5 goals in the Newport v Newcastle match at 5:30 currently 1.97 to back.

well that was easy 1-0 already

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

This is my day finally haha!

AC Kajaani ahead now. Laid AC Oulu @ 2.7

Time to finish the crappy month of September strongly.

Nice and quick. That will probably be it for this god forsaken month haha!

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@richard-latimer there it is!

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

This is my day finally haha!

AC Kajaani ahead now. Laid AC Oulu @ 2.7

Time to finish the crappy month of September strongly.

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Anyone found a good way to watch the Finnish matches live?

Some of the icelandic games are streamed on YouTube, would be great if something similar popped up for them

edit. Nevermind, I'm being a dafty. It's on bet365

Richard Latimer

This is my day finally haha!

AC Kajaani ahead now. Laid AC Oulu @ 2.7

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@matthew-biggins I've taken the same view. I think I just don't have the guts for the variance

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Think I’m leaving FHG’s for a while. Not that I don’t think it’s not profitable, it’s just I don’t seem to have that much success with it. For me second half goals are much easier to find. Makes sense for me to focus on those more

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@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@wayne-ironside nice what's the strat?

Reply, basically uses a similar strategy to Frode's needing at least 1.4 to get into the market and then drip backing as the odds rise. My filter is set up for only one nil nil at half time in the last ten games. The average first goal is currently 32 mins. Currently only a 67% hit rate at the moment but the last nine results have been a win. Had a hard start with the first five games, three were nil nil half time. Only have 27 games recorded so far.

Martin

@wayne-ironside nice what's the strat?