The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Trelleborgs with the late equaliser (pen) full 4 points made there after laying at 1.49 for 2 points!
Nice one! I got on at around 1.7 i think
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@daniel-mills said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@daniel-cooper Trelleborgs certainly pushing for the equaliser. Gonna sit in on this for a bit and see how it plays out.
Cooorrrrr, 94th minute penalty to equalise, they sure left it late! Trelleborgs dominated the first half in many ways, started slow 2nd half but like you say, pushed hard for the equaliser and were the more dominant team from around 70 mins onwards! In two minds as to if that was a smart opportunity spot or a dumb luck win, but full profit on the Akropolis lay
ā
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Trelleborgs with the late equaliser (pen) full 4 points made there after laying at 1.49 for 2 points!
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
but the winners are usually coming after 1st, sometimes 2nd part of stake is on.
Yes that makes sense! I think thats always the issue and dilemma with split staking. Personally i wouldnt like that last one because sometimes you may be in the market for just 10 minutes but thats just me. If you are finding that a huge % of goals are coming between 50-60 then maybe lean your staking that way a little bit more. But if you are making profit then i wouldnt think of it as a big issue, maybe just look through the data and see if you can tweak it slightly. Maybe work out how many games had the first stake matched, 2 matched and 3 matched
Yes I might be over thinking it and panicking due to a couple of losers with the large amount of money, even though the %s make sense.
Will have a look through as you suggest
very much appreciate the advice 
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@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
but the winners are usually coming after 1st, sometimes 2nd part of stake is on.
Yes that makes sense! I think thats always the issue and dilemma with split staking. Personally i wouldnt like that last one because sometimes you may be in the market for just 10 minutes but thats just me. If you are finding that a huge % of goals are coming between 50-60 then maybe lean your staking that way a little bit more. But if you are making profit then i wouldnt think of it as a big issue, maybe just look through the data and see if you can tweak it slightly. Maybe work out how many games had the first stake matched, 2 matched and 3 matched
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@daniel-cooper Trelleborgs certainly pushing for the equaliser. Gonna sit in on this for a bit and see how it plays out.
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Just checked through data and a rough estimate would be 30 points made in the past month from my sh goal filter had i staked similar to lee woodman. This is being more cautious for estimates too- its likely higher. So that is double what it has made from the way i currently stake, having only made 15 points from backing one sh goal at 1.51. I'll stop going on now but it shows how important having the right strategy is.
Agreed. I have just seen a problem with my 2HG strat and I'm not sure about the best way to fix it or if I even should be trying to.
Whats the issue?
I have set my rules based on % of staking.
Entering the next over+1.5 market (O1.5 if no 1H goals, O2.5 if 1 1HG, etc).
50% stake in at around the 50min mark, odds of 2.02
25% stake in at around the 60min mark, odds usually +1.5 of 1st part
25% stake in at around the 65-70min mark, looking for odds of 3.5-4 over the original entry point.
Cash out at about 77-80mins if no goal, (max 60% loss of stake).It is green at the moment but I can see a problem.
My winners (cashing out after a goal) gain me about 45-55% profit on my stake.
Problem is the losers will ALWAYS have all 3 parts of the stake placed but the winners are usually coming after 1st, sometimes 2nd part of stake is on.
So the %s are ok, happy with those, problem is the pts lost are quite a bit higher than those won.Hope that makes sense
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Interesting with the Trelleborgs vs Akropolis game - Akropolis have just scored yes, their strong team according to ELO Lays, but they're missing their strongest scorer by a long shot, he transferred. @John-Hurst said its on his comeback filter as a lay of Akropolis, could pan out given missing player and Trelleborgs strongest not on pitch yet?
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Yeah, not a good day so far for the sh goals. Looking at 4! red results, 3 were probably due to adverse weather however so that has been noted. @Lee-woodman the strategy you use is going to be way more profitable. Avg goal time for me is 68 mins so i may have both over 1.5 sh goal trades on by that point. Will lose less when no sh goals too due to trading out at 77. Thanks for sharing it.
Can you link me to this please?
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@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Just checked through data and a rough estimate would be 30 points made in the past month from my sh goal filter had i staked similar to lee woodman. This is being more cautious for estimates too- its likely higher. So that is double what it has made from the way i currently stake, having only made 15 points from backing one sh goal at 1.51. I'll stop going on now but it shows how important having the right strategy is.
Agreed. I have just seen a problem with my 2HG strat and I'm not sure about the best way to fix it or if I even should be trying to.
Whats the issue?
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@matt-wood Yes mate
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin-futter Odds literally seem to drop off, sometimes 2.4 at HT into 2.1 by 50' and 2.0 into 1.8
Sorry for being dumb, those the lay odds on the +1.5 unders market?
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@martin-futter Odds literally seem to drop off, sometimes 2.4 at HT into 2.1 by 50' and 2.0 into 1.8
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@john-hurst 1.8 average Iād say. Big big drop in odds from 45-50ā
50 could be a sweet spot, so few goals in the first 5 mins usually
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Just checked through data and a rough estimate would be 30 points made in the past month from my sh goal filter had i staked similar to lee woodman. This is being more cautious for estimates too- its likely higher. So that is double what it has made from the way i currently stake, having only made 15 points from backing one sh goal at 1.51. I'll stop going on now but it shows how important having the right strategy is.
Agreed. I have just seen a problem with my 2HG strat and I'm not sure about the best way to fix it or if I even should be trying to.
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Just checked through data and a rough estimate would be 30 points made in the past month from my sh goal filter had i staked similar to lee woodman. This is being more cautious for estimates too- its likely higher. So that is double what it has made from the way i currently stake, having only made 15 points from backing one sh goal at 1.51. I'll stop going on now but it shows how important having the right strategy is.
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Late goal in sagan at least, only 0.5 pt loss
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Yeah, not a good day so far for the sh goals. Looking at 4! red results, 3 were probably due to adverse weather however so that has been noted. @Lee-woodman the strategy you use is going to be way more profitable. Avg goal time for me is 68 mins so i may have both over 1.5 sh goal trades on by that point. Will lose less when no sh goals too due to trading out at 77. Thanks for sharing it.
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Taking the red on the Tosu game. Thought they might turn up in the second half. Missed penalty so I'm out.
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@daniel-cooper Yeah, watching the FC Tokyo match on b365. One third of the pitch was completely waterlogged, stopping balls, players falling over themselves. Seems to be going in Kawasaki's favour at the moment though!
It's not something I would have picked up on before - I try to watch the games i'm trading because the in play stats can be misleading.
edit: sometimes it not even apparent the weathers bad until they do a close up on the players
