The BTC Football Trading Thread

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@keith-anderson yeah I agree it seems to have been affected by neutral venues and no fans too. I wouldn’t drop it but will just track for the time being

Akiva Anderson

@ben-dobie said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@ryan-carruthers nothing really jumped out like China, K1 is generally poor compared to K2 but not a great deal of data. Sweden,Iceland,Norway all great to trade as expected if the odds are there.
They’ll all track individually now so be good to look at when I’ve got a good data set for all leagues. China had 31 games recorded so fair to say it’s been poor for a couple of months for me

China will be a bit of an anomaly this season. I think the league is being held in two provinces. They seem to have been struggling with bad weather too. A lot of the matches have taken place on waterlogged pitches. I'm certain quite a few of these matches wouldn't be played if it was a European League.

Ryan

@ben-dobie Interesting!

I will love to look at that when its expanded a bit further on the other leagues too.

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@ryan-carruthers nothing really jumped out like China, K1 is generally poor compared to K2 but not a great deal of data. Sweden,Iceland,Norway all great to trade as expected if the odds are there.
They’ll all track individually now so be good to look at when I’ve got a good data set for all leagues. China had 31 games recorded so fair to say it’s been poor for a couple of months for me

Ryan

@ben-dobie Wow! Was there any other leagues that surprised you?

China has been a barren waste land for me of late as well, strange as the other leagues in that area have been gold for me for years!

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A bit of an eye opener for me yesterday, I broke my results down into separate leagues from my filter and China was terrible over nearly every market, only half decent s/r was backing another goal 70+

Ryan

Couple of games today I'll be watching

HT LTD 0-0 / 1-1

GA Eagles v Graafschap

Flamengo RJ v Goias (Looks like it will be Flamengo to get the goal here if 0-0 so keep an eye on that)

Matt Wood

@stuart-capstick
Thanks for the reply I think you have answered the questions I had about it. I had created a spreadsheet for Japan but it was such a pain to continually update, as you say.

I didnt realise the underestimation of no goals though, probably seals it as a no go for me as its far too much of a time sink Plus we have access to all the stats software here.

Appreciate the info and time taken to answer

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software is back up........

Stuart Capstick

@matt-wood

Poisson can be very effective, but:

a) It underestimates the probability of 0 goals
b) It all depends ultimately on the weighting

By "weighting" I mean the extra you have to input. For example, most of your data will come from last season's results, but the teams will have different personnel this season etc. That's where ELO comes in based as it is on performance in the last 5-10 games.
You can create zero-inflated poisson distributions to account for the 0 goals but it's a pain. In fact, the main problem with poisson is the constant need to update your data- which is why most people who use it rely on ELO. The problem there is the validity of the ELO values.

Where it is most useful is in the overs market. If there is a game that is 1-0, 0-1 or 0-0 and the poisson predicts over 2.5, then you have a little more confidence of another goal. However, you can get that from the BTC stats to be honest.
I made some spreadsheets with poisson calculations for the Bundesliga and Belarus (yeah, I know....) during Lockdown. PM me and I'll share with you.

Richard Latimer

@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer shocking quality

Den Bosch have done this a few times since the start of the season. Always count on the Egyptians though.

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@richard-latimer shocking quality

Richard Latimer

@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

zamalek level, shame i missed it. On den bosh now, hopefully that one will be ok

Not to be. Small red day.

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zamalek level, shame i missed it. On den bosh now, hopefully that one will be ok

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

And now Den Bosch behind.

Re-laid

Liability back to original level with much bigger payout.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

And now Den Bosch behind.

Re-laid

Richard Latimer

And now Den Bosch behind.

Matt Wood

Ouch! A Den Bosch player just performed a flying headbut on the advertising

Richard Latimer

Zamalek behind but when I laid the price crashed.

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@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Poisson method

I think its related to the ELO ratings (if not the same thing) although i am not 100% sure.