The BTC Football Trading Thread
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It will be just my luck if Oslo or Ham-Kam score in the first minute of the second half - although I wouldn't be surprised. I can hardly bear to watch!
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Not one to complain usually but the site has just been down again. Unable to access forum or stats. I know its not my end cause other sites are fine. Frustrating last month or so
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@alan-steward it was more just looking for a discussion on backing at HT as my data looked good for it but something ive never done myself.
Ive backed at 60 for a while now and its providing a part time income and constantly escalating.
I will probably stick with 60+ after speaking with everyone and track HT entries. -
@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman thanks for your opinions on this. I actually wondered this myself and only recorded the winning odds for average odds.
As for variance i think the worst losing streak from half time is 2 at the moment. Nothing compared to my 8 in a row last month on first half goals that still finished in profit.
Will continue to track the odds to find an average. I know for sure some leagues will struggle to be over 1.2
Hi mate, out of interest why are you looking to replace a successful trade?
Many people have suggested ideas that can work re going to HT for laying or backing the next goal, however, if you already have a successful filter for SHG maybe it might be more worth your while tweaking your strategy and look for something slightly different like o1.5 or o2.5 SHG's or even maybe a SH BTTS or HT LTD... Just an observation
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@martin-walker best thing to always do is just to record and track it. It will take all opinions out and just give you an actual answer. Just like with the FHG project i do, find your strike rate is, this will give you min odds, then track price and if your always averaging more than the min odds then youll be in profit. Dont overcomplicate it. You built up a very good +60 min strategy you just have to repeat those steps with ht entry data.
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
What sites do you guys prefer to use for team lineups, key players, top scorers etc?
flashscore, i rarely use anything else
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@martin-walker Some leagues will be below that, but they could actually be the most profitable, that’s the danger of using averages alone. I’d rather 98% SR at 1.15 than a 50% SR at 1.7
Just check it out game by game and see how they go. I’ve made the mistake of switching strategies without testing the alternative thoroughly so I advise from a position of having learnt the hard way!
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@lee-woodman thanks for your opinions on this. I actually wondered this myself and only recorded the winning odds for average odds.
As for variance i think the worst losing streak from half time is 2 at the moment. Nothing compared to my 8 in a row last month on first half goals that still finished in profit.
Will continue to track the odds to find an average. I know for sure some leagues will struggle to be over 1.2
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@martin-walker I would advise caution about how you use the average odds aswell. So you may achieve average odds of say 1.25 but all the winners may come at 1.2 and all the losers may be at 1.3+ so simply using average odds as a calculation would skew the figures. And likewise you may decide to only get on those above your average odds, again this could cause an issue if the odds on the winners are all below the average and therefore you miss a big chunk of the winners. Thats why testing it and running a P/L using the hypothetical profit you wouldve actually achieved is the most solid way
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@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@darri ive always traded 60-70 mins and you helped me with that and ive been profitable for a while now. As i learn to look at data better and from my knowledge of the markets ive noticed i could potentially make more going in at HT its just not something ive ever done
One thing about backing at low odds or laying at high odds is whether a few bad results can affect you. Some people will be bothered by it, others less so. Only you will know if thats the case for you. You would need to find a good balance of staking enough to get a decent return but not staking too much that you lose a lot with a few losers. I would suggest tracking it for say 100 games whilst continuing what you are doing, then compare the 2 sets of figures (looking at variance aswell as P/L)
There are other trades you could look at which target a SH goal, a lot depends on your data and what times you are finding the goals are coming in that half
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What sites do you guys prefer to use for team lineups, key players, top scorers etc?
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@darri urgh internationals lol
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couple of losses tonight, plenty still to come before internationals
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0-0 FT Blackburn v Boro, everything but the goal
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Rough day!
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
LTD / LCS in the AFC Wimbeldon v Doncaster Rovers. Currently 1-1 at HT
Goal! 2-1
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lcs blackburn vs boro
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
lcs/ltd norwich vs millwall 0-0 70 mins
Losing trade, been on a good run of late, 8/8 lcs trades so was due a loser. In play stats speak for itself, was a trade id do again
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@keith-anderson 1 step forward and 4 steps backwards with these LTDs!
