The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Anybody else slightly concerned that their 2nd half filter doesn't throw up many selections for the winter leagues
Very rarely get anything from what are considered the top leagues i.e. England,Spain,Italy,Germany don't even get many Netherlands or France -
@richard-latimer hi mate, sounds like a rough run on the ELO are you still carrying on with it?
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What an upset. Boavista who had ave odds of 12.70 have not only beaten Benfica. They have smashed them!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@matthew-biggins said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@matthew-biggins said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer yeah I missed two opportunities to scratch at the weekend when it went back to 2-1. Stayed in instead and watched it go 3-1.
Fingers crossed for you mate.
This is the thing, the strategy went through such a purple patch of full comebacks that everyone began to take it as a given and I amended the way I had been playing it as a result. In truth when a team goes behind by 2 goals and gets one back it's no more than 50/50 who will get the next or if there even will be a next.
Yeah that makes perfect sense. I think the edge with these comes with the live pictures. A lot of comebacks are all about momentum especially once it goes 2-0, one goal back can change the picture but if the momentum isn't there it's going to be hard work.
Theres also the chance the fav will be caught out on the break the more they push so you're definitely right with the 50/50 thing. It can be a bit of a lottery sometimes.
Unbelievable. This must go down as the worst result since I started tracking these in May 2019 haha!! 3-0 and Benfica have been woeful.
Saying that, they've had 2 goals ruled out and a VAR not given for handball.
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@matthew-biggins said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@matthew-biggins said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer yeah I missed two opportunities to scratch at the weekend when it went back to 2-1. Stayed in instead and watched it go 3-1.
Fingers crossed for you mate.
This is the thing, the strategy went through such a purple patch of full comebacks that everyone began to take it as a given and I amended the way I had been playing it as a result. In truth when a team goes behind by 2 goals and gets one back it's no more than 50/50 who will get the next or if there even will be a next.
Yeah that makes perfect sense. I think the edge with these comes with the live pictures. A lot of comebacks are all about momentum especially once it goes 2-0, one goal back can change the picture but if the momentum isn't there it's going to be hard work.
Theres also the chance the fav will be caught out on the break the more they push so you're definitely right with the 50/50 thing. It can be a bit of a lottery sometimes.
Unbelievable. This must go down as the worst result since I started tracking these in May 2019 haha!! 3-0 and Benfica have been woeful.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@matthew-biggins said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer yeah I missed two opportunities to scratch at the weekend when it went back to 2-1. Stayed in instead and watched it go 3-1.
Fingers crossed for you mate.
This is the thing, the strategy went through such a purple patch of full comebacks that everyone began to take it as a given and I amended the way I had been playing it as a result. In truth when a team goes behind by 2 goals and gets one back it's no more than 50/50 who will get the next or if there even will be a next.
Yeah that makes perfect sense. I think the edge with these comes with the live pictures. A lot of comebacks are all about momentum especially once it goes 2-0, one goal back can change the picture but if the momentum isn't there it's going to be hard work.
Theres also the chance the fav will be caught out on the break the more they push so you're definitely right with the 50/50 thing. It can be a bit of a lottery sometimes.
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@matthew-biggins said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer yeah I missed two opportunities to scratch at the weekend when it went back to 2-1. Stayed in instead and watched it go 3-1.
Fingers crossed for you mate.
This is the thing, the strategy went through such a purple patch of full comebacks that everyone began to take it as a given and I amended the way I had been playing it as a result. In truth when a team goes behind by 2 goals and gets one back it's no more than 50/50 who will get the next or if there even will be a next.
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I layed under 4.5 goals in the Leeds v Leicester match. I done this as Maddison was brought down in the box. There was quite a bit of time before the VAR review. Of course the penalty was given, and scored, but I wonder will Betfair take the money off me?!
Will take the money off you. Had this happen to me early in the season. Then settled it as a losing trade and took the stake off me as well
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I layed under 4.5 goals in the Leeds v Leicester match. I done this as Maddison was brought down in the box. There was quite a bit of time before the VAR review. Of course the penalty was given, and scored, but I wonder will Betfair take the money off me?!
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@richard-latimer yeah I missed two opportunities to scratch at the weekend when it went back to 2-1. Stayed in instead and watched it go 3-1.
Fingers crossed for you mate.
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Just hope they get one back early 2nd half so I can ditch it.
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@matthew-biggins said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer just checked the stats on that one looks like Benfica are on the rack there as well
Yeah. Crazy.
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@richard-latimer just checked the stats on that one looks like Benfica are on the rack there as well
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That's the 2nd they've had ruled out
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Damn you VAR haha
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Omg now Benfica are sticking it to me. It's laugh or cry time haha!
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@matthew-biggins That's very clear indeed, thanks Matthew.
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@alastair-todd said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@matthew-biggins Doesn't a red card give the favourite an advantage (assuming it was the dog that was carded)? I know the 'rule' is to get out as soon as a red card occurs but I'm still not sure why
Yeah it was the underdog who had the red.
There is definitely a perception that a red card is a signal to get out but I think it's down to personal preference. If a red card comes before I've entered the trade I'll tend to leave it alone. If I'm already in the trade I view it in the context of the game and make a decision with what I've seen on the live pictures.
Tonight it did feel like one of those occasions where a red card would work in my favour however, you can never quite tell how it will affect the game. Reds can work the other way where the dog just parks the bus and allows no space but Braga were still finding spaces and creating good openings.
I certainly dont think it's a problem to stay in after a red as long as you can read the game. If I don't have live pictures, I'm more likely to err on the side of caution and get out.
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@matthew-biggins Doesn't a red card give the favourite an advantage (assuming it was the dog that was carded)? I know the 'rule' is to get out as soon as a red card occurs but I'm still not sure why
