The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@catalin-radu said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Hi guys, today I've looked a little bit on stats at different leagues. From 15, 14 of them, the period with most goals is from 76 to 90 minutes. I think this is a good thing for LTD or a late goal
The market knows that though and prices it accordingly. At 76 minutes you will usually looking at odds around 2.00 so would need a goal more than 50% of the time to break even.
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@catalin-radu definitely will be good for lcs or backing another goal
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@catalin-radu from 21% to 24% of goals
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Hi guys, today I've looked a little bit on stats at different leagues. From 15, 14 of them, the period with most goals is from 76 to 90 minutes. I think this is a good thing for LTD or a late goal
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@john-hurst Interesting data to start filtering down with some stats to get a solid strategy buddy!
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@john-hurst nice data, but the issue with generalising a whole league means your then missing out on good opportunities within the leagues. The championship markets reflect this general data but this is when the filters or your own match selection comes in an you nick quality prices at value. Dont be too general with data, try find the gaps that others might miss out on (your edge)
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96 games played so far in championship and 41% of those have been 0-0 at HT
1 in 4 of those have finished 0-0. -
Each to our own but in terms of SH goal trading I much prefer matches that are 1-0 or 0-1 at HT than 0-0.
The winning team will feel they need another and the losing team can't sit back.From my database around 80% of all 1-0/0-1 HT games have a SH goal and that's from all games without applying my filters for various strategies.
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@john-hurst interesting discussion something I want to explore is frequency of results at ht and what happens in the 2h.
Soccerstats.com will show a lot if what your after but not downloadable there’s also a site soccervista.com where you can display a league by amount of goals for example, Championship this season is low at 2.17 goals per game whereas last season it was at 2.64 goals per game and 2018/19 2.67 gpg quite a drop off this year
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The championship seems to have decent odds for lcs but im not sure of goal frequency, doesnt seem particularly high scoring at the moment
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0-0 draws from the top leagues. Im aware odds may not be great in these leagues to lcs. Finding the sweet spot of leagues/matches to get decent odds may be the most difficult part. Covid giving away teams more advantage isnt great for data at the moment either
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@mull said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@john-hurst I thought I had read that it's 10% from KO and 25% from HT. I just need to remember where i read it!
Yes that is quite possibly the case as a general rule of thumb... However if you create a BTC filter with goals expected you will eliminate a lot of the FT 0-0's... Can you see where I'm coming from.
Of course if @John-Hurst originally intended a general rule of thumb measurement then I misunderstood/read his original post... However if we are referring to games pre filtered where goals are expected then you should be nearer the 15% mark
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@john-hurst I thought I had read that it's 10% from KO and 25% from HT. I just need to remember where i read it!
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@Alan-Steward
No problem mate.
My data comes from elsewhere not BTC and contains data for over 300 fields covering over 40,000 matches for most professional leagues going back to June 2018. I have data pre 2018 in a different database but with not as many fields. -
@bottlabroon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@bottlabroon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward @John-Hurst
I've just ran the filter through my database going back to 1st June 2018
Total Matches in database = 42,055
Total 0-0 HT = 13,072
Total 0-0 HT & FT = 3,151So a shade over 24% in my data which seems signifcantly more than the figures being mentioned.
Yes mate but as I mentioned it depends how you filter is set up... ie every game played or games where circa o2.5 goals are expected.
What type of games went into your database?
That's every match in the database Alan.
I can add a filter for where over 2.5 is expected but how are you defining that?
I could run it for matches where the over 2.5 starting price was below 2.00?I define o2.5 goals expected plus other criteria which I put into my BTC filters... I'm more than happy with the figure I quoted... It wouldn't change the % much which I quoted and it's difficult to compare my filter data with your database as mine takes recent form into consideration which I feel is important.
I know there's a place for for generalised data but my filters run consistent results over a long period of time... Plus I'm only quoting post COVID games, ie behind closed doors.
Out of interest how did you gather your data, is it from a BTC filter which you trade?
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@bottlabroon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward @John-Hurst
I've just ran the filter through my database going back to 1st June 2018
Total Matches in database = 42,055
Total 0-0 HT = 13,072
Total 0-0 HT & FT = 3,151So a shade over 24% in my data which seems signifcantly more than the figures being mentioned.
Yes mate but as I mentioned it depends how you filter is set up... ie every game played or games where circa o2.5 goals are expected.
What type of games went into your database?
That's every match in the database Alan.
I can add a filter for where over 2.5 is expected but how are you defining that?
I could run it for matches where the over 2.5 starting price was below 2.00? -
@bottlabroon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward @John-Hurst
I've just ran the filter through my database going back to 1st June 2018
Total Matches in database = 42,055
Total 0-0 HT = 13,072
Total 0-0 HT & FT = 3,151So a shade over 24% in my data which seems signifcantly more than the figures being mentioned.
Yes mate but as I mentioned it depends how you filter is set up... ie every game played or games where circa o2.5 goals are expected.
When I quoted circa 15% this was taken from one of my positive goal filters measuring games over a 3 month period and totalling just over 400 matches
What type of games went into your database?
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@alan-steward @John-Hurst
I've just ran the filter through my database going back to 1st June 2018
Total Matches in database = 42,055
Total 0-0 HT = 13,072
Total 0-0 HT & FT = 3,151So a shade over 24% in my data which seems signifcantly more than the figures being mentioned.
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Is there any merit in LCS in every 0-0 at HT? Read somewhere that only 10% finish 0-0. Be interested to know what % of games are 0-0 at HT to get an idea of what odds would be needed to be profitable.
Hi mate, this is a stat I've been measuring and around 15% of games which ended 0-0 @ HT would go on to stay 0-0 by FT
Not sure I've seen the figure of 10% anywhere before but obviously it much depends on how your filter is set up... On all of my positive goal filters 15% seems to be the norm.
The average losing HT 0-0 odds are around 5.5 so circa -4.5pts per game... Again this depends on what leagues are in your filter and if the market expects goals. If you only have all the high scoring leagues in your filter some will lose but these could be at odds of 7.0 plus... Careful because you can/could get stung.
I was trying to create a filter to back the FHG but then lay the HT 0-0 and set it to achieve minimum 0.5pts green per game but found you would need to lay the HT 0-0 with circa 7pts @ around average odds of 5.5, juicy losses but guarantees green... But;
As you can gather a large part of your bank would be required to cover this type of trade and could be put to better use on other strats... Hope this helps.
I was trying to create a kind of Matched Betting meets Trading type strategy lol
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@john-hurst I'd love to see these results!
