The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@matthew-biggins A blog would be a great idea, when I changed my thinking to long term I went from monthly to quarterly and it made a huge difference like massive. I checked in on what was happening as an overall look and it made my trading so much better - it's each to their own though and building something that works for you is more important
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@ryan-carruthers Going to delve into some data today mate
see if i can see some correlation between the Ft 0-0’s too. -
@john-hurst Interesting, might be worth playing through the data as I bet there's leagues where this would work well.
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Is there any merit in LCS in every 0-0 at HT? Read somewhere that only 10% finish 0-0. Be interested to know what % of games are 0-0 at HT to get an idea of what odds would be needed to be profitable.
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Week summary:
4.8 pts green on posted trades last week.
-1.8 pts red on posted so far this week. Up on the horse, as they say. -
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@matthew-biggins said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne I'm taking Martin's advice of 'if I'm going through hell, keep going' haha.
I pulled most of it back on Sunday but since then it's been a bit hit and miss with slightly more miss. I've probably stuttered over the last few days more than anything but Saturday already saw me with a few points to claw back.
I'm not taking it to heart like i have done in the past though which I think is a good sign.
This last point you made is so so so important @Matthew-Biggins , I’ve been trading for about 5 months now and its been a complete mixed bag. I had a shitty September, and once I put my foot down and stopped some bad habits I had something ridiculous like 20 profitable days in a row in to October which was amazing. Last couple of days in October were awful again, and then November so far has also been pretty bad, BUT....
Just like you, I know its variance, I know some of it for me is also poor behaviours and mistakes! I’m learning, today was solid and profitable! To top it all off, one of my filters is finally at the point after 45-60 days in its second/third phase I’m going to starting trading it and I think I’m on to a winner! Will report back when I have some figures!
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@darri Thanks for the encouragement mate.
I think that's the thing I'm struggling with most is worrying about the short-term losses. Not so much daily but if I've had 2 or 3 red days in a row I think it subconsciously has an affect on which trades I enter the following day. I like to pull my results at the end of each week and check them and try not to focus on the p/l so much but maybe changing that to monthly might help the long-term thinking. I'm getting better I think but I'm still very much in the learning process.
Tbh mate the ideas are very much just that at the minute, I've dabbled in the filters for an u2.5 goals strat which has thrown up about 4 or 5 a week on average but I've not really tracked them all properly, mainly so I dont lose focus. There's also a set and forget strategy I've been thinking about, using the ratings. I dont think I'll be reinventing the wheel with either of them. I do keep meaning to start my own blog to track everything in and I'll probably get round to it at some point, maybe at the end of this weekend but I'm definitely well aware of not doing too much at once. I've been guilty of that before.
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@matthew-biggins keep going mate. if these results still dont improve then take a look but always trust in your selections if they have a good history of being profitable. It does, but try to think less about each day and think more week/monthly. Youll emotionally drain yourself if you think about p/l each day. I like to judge my strategies based off of 50-100 results, not what they make each day/couple of days. It will help keep your mind off always trying to make progress each day. Keep us posted with your ideas your monitoring, just make sure your not overstretching yourself and focus on getting good at one thing before adding more. Hopefully youll get some form and consistency rest of month and replicate last months results buddy
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@alastair-todd stick at it mate, i would say that anyone who comes into trading should paper trade the types of strategies they prefer. Then over the course of a month see what strategies are their best performing. This way you gain confidence in your trades so wont worry about what happens each day as youll know its long term profitable. Plus youll know much more about trading and how markets work and what kinda odds to expect at certain times for your strategy. I have bad days (we all do) but i have a long history with my trades and know even after a few bad ones ill always come out on top end of month. This also works when your having a bad period and can take the emotion out for a few trades to rebuild confidence.
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@darri Thanks mate, I'm similar to Alistair tbh in terms of the selections. Hoping it's just variance. I know if I have a good weekend I can claw most of it back, I think just psychologically it would be nice to see 2 or 3 greens in a row. It's amazing how much a couple of good results can change the mindset.
Got a couple of ideas that I'm starting to monitor as well which I'm hoping will be promising. So I've still not lost the good feeling I had at the end of last month in terms of my overall trading outlook.
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@chris-osborne I'm taking Martin's advice of 'if I'm going through hell, keep going' haha.
I pulled most of it back on Sunday but since then it's been a bit hit and miss with slightly more miss. I've probably stuttered over the last few days more than anything but Saturday already saw me with a few points to claw back.
I'm not taking it to heart like i have done in the past though which I think is a good sign.
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@darri Thanks Darri. To be honest, in terms of match selection and strategy, I am getting them from the 'Profitable Members Filters ' and am sticking to the strategy guidance. Indeed with the Shamrock game I didn't LTD at KO but waited until HT to get better Lay odds. I think it's basically just a bad bit of luck but it's a bit annoying!
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for those that are having some losing runs right now, feel free to ask for any help, dont be shying away from it, we have all been there! There is probably something one of the more experienced traders can help with. Always happy to have a wee chat if you need guys
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@matthew-biggins I'm in a similar position had a really good October until this time last week, since then 7 losing days in a row and i also don't think I'm doing much different but will have a look in a couple of days. taking tomorrow off.
Was also on the Shamrock game, 0-0 was the last scoreline I was expecting.
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Full house tonight. I'll be back on Friday as I'm not trading the Europa League matches.
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@alastair-todd I was on the Shamrock game too. They've scored 40 goals in their opening 16 fixtures before tonight btw
Had a poor weekend and the fact that I've picked losing trade after losing trade in the limited time I've had over the last couple of days is a bit annoying. Hoping it's just variance as I dont think I'm doing anything differently to last month. November feels like it could already be on the verge of damage limitation tbh.
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@alastair-todd how long have you been testing your strategies?
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Had a complete mare these last two days. No goals in Norwich match yesterday, no FHG in the Oslo match today although they scored minutes after half time, and no goals in the Shamrock match this evening (was a goal disallowed at 86'?). LTD in particular is battering me at the moment.
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
lcs : derby vs qpr
lcs: rotherham vs luton if @1.75GOALS! get in nice profit for tonight, my ltd add on for derby also winning
