The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@alan-steward ive just got rid of norway for fhg improved strike rate by over 3% and the odds arent the best in that league as it is
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin-walker I have a filter on my sheet and a league is A or B and I can easily see the difference. However I can quickly filter a specific league and drill down into it. It’s quite basic how I do it so no mega complicated algorithms
Yeah, I can get a bit anal with stats lol... Think my Mum knew how I'd turn out so called me Alan
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@lee-woodman will have to look into improving my spreadsheet skills
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@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward its not something ive put too much thought into yet but will from now on. The fact that a league might be great for fhg and bad for shg
I tend to get rid of a league for everything
Sorry for harping on and sounding repetitive but;
"What we Measure we Can Manage"
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@martin-walker I have a filter on my sheet and a league is A or B and I can easily see the difference. However I can quickly filter a specific league and drill down into it. It’s quite basic how I do it so no mega complicated algorithms
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@alan-steward its not something ive put too much thought into yet but will from now on. The fact that a league might be great for fhg and bad for shg
I tend to get rid of a league for everything
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@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward norway lets me down a bit on fhg
Yes mate Eliteserien for SHG mostly... Obos Ligaen maybe Split Stake or maybe best left
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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@stuart-capstick 100%!!! It's a crazy kind of league that, it's like that girl who you desire so much but know will ruin your life!
I've found a few of them mate... You want any No's???
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@alan-steward norway lets me down a bit on fhg
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@bottlabroon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward
It's a few years ago now but I did a study of 2nd half goals and found the South American leagues (particularly Brazil) usually seemed to perform above average in the first half and below in the 2nd half, I put it down to heat/altitude and players tiring quicker.Spot on mate!
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@bottlabroon ive just got rid of chile and ecuador
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@simji said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward normally the scandinavian leagues are ones i have followed mostly this year sadly working sundays now i havent been able to keep up with them.
My generalised interpretation... Sweden Split Stake; Finland FHG; Norway SHG, Iceland Pepsideild Late SHG
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@stuart-capstick 100%!!! It's a crazy kind of league that, it's like that girl who you desire so much but know will ruin your life!
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@alan-steward
It's a few years ago now but I did a study of 2nd half goals and found the South American leagues (particularly Brazil) usually seemed to perform above average in the first half and below in the 2nd half, I put it down to heat/altitude and players tiring quicker. -
@alan-steward normally the scandinavian leagues are ones i have followed mostly sadly this year ive been working sundays so i havent been able to keep up with them.
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@lee-woodman yes agree with this completely. Was getting high scoring games but then not doing well on my 60+ strategy. 2-1 at half time then nothing for example.
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Ive had a league clear out and still have finland, serbia, slovakia, portugal that im on the fence with. Anyone got rid of these leagues
Hi Martin, how do these leagues fair within your filter ie are they profitable?
Other filters may find one league profitable whereas another filter it's a loss...
I create what I call a "Smart Filter" from my main filters ie I have more than one trade within a filter so measure it differently. I check a leagues performance based on a specific trade.
Take SHG for example... I remove any league (regardless of team) which doesn't have an 80% strike rate... That league stays in the main filter and if it starts performing again I can always add it back into the sub filter.
Hope this helps
This is a good point. You may find weaker leagues aren’t as good for late goals...maybe it’s because players get tired later in the game, managers not as astute with substitutes, squads not as good to allow the team to put a quality player on etc etc but the same league may be great for FHG or O2.5 as the action comes earlier in the game.
Spot on mate, ie Finland for FHG Norway for SHG... However they're both positive goal leagues
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@bottlabroon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Ive had a league clear out and still have finland, serbia, slovakia, portugal that im on the fence with. Anyone got rid of these leagues
Important thing really though is prices to me. Prime example is the Dutch leagues which are great for goals but I can rarely seem to get any value there because the whole world knows they are high scoring. Portugal (particularly the B league) is very good for me purely because I can usually get decent prices.
@Martin-Walker This is also very true and I posted something similar to this a while back where I mentioned about stripping out too much non performing data from your filter as you could end up with all the big "Goal League" and the games are priced accordingly ie big odds and then you'll need an even better strike rate to compensate for high odd losses
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Ive had a league clear out and still have finland, serbia, slovakia, portugal that im on the fence with. Anyone got rid of these leagues
Hi Martin, how do these leagues fair within your filter ie are they profitable?
Other filters may find one league profitable whereas another filter it's a loss...
I create what I call a "Smart Filter" from my main filters ie I have more than one trade within a filter so measure it differently. I check a leagues performance based on a specific trade.
Take SHG for example... I remove any league (regardless of team) which doesn't have an 80% strike rate... That league stays in the main filter and if it starts performing again I can always add it back into the sub filter.
Hope this helps
This is a good point. You may find weaker leagues aren’t as good for late goals...maybe it’s because players get tired later in the game, managers not as astute with substitutes, squads not as good to allow the team to put a quality player on etc etc but the same league may be great for FHG or O2.5 as the action comes earlier in the game.
