The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@john-hurst this is something I have been contemplating quite a bit. I've had a really bad run on the unders over the last year. But I have some months switch to the overs with the same sort of criteria that I look for the unders but do over and it still has had the same sort of losses. My trading style at the beginning of my journey a couple of years back was go against the market so to speak if I felt that it was over priced. And did quite well (maybe got a slight ego as I the strike rate I had was pretty high) but I think variance has kicked in and what I did win I gave back and a little more. Maybe I'm just overthinking and trying too hard to get that back etc.
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Morning all, so after a busy start to the league season for many clubs and players being away for International duty for 2 weeks would anybody trust their stats this coming weekend when leagues reappear?
I often leave it one week for clubs to get back into the swing of things after @Martin-Futter has previously highlighted this... Will find it tough this weekend after 2 weeks of zero top flight football.
Thoughts/opinions?
Yes there is a lot of truth to this. Watching the games you trade will be ever more important.
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Morning all, so after a busy start to the league season for many clubs and players being away for International duty for 2 weeks would anybody trust their stats this coming weekend when leagues reappear?
I often leave it one week for clubs to get back into the swing of things after @Martin-Futter has previously highlighted this... Will find it tough this weekend after 2 weeks of zero top flight football.
Thoughts/opinions?
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@chris-osborne I'm all for banning it altogether
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This international break is even more boring and dragged on longer than the others at least there isn’t another one until March.
I was fed up of it last week.
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@richard-latimer Neither did I! Does that mean we might get to see more of him and Blake Lively here?
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Wow, Ryan Reynolds and (the guy from It's Always Sunny - took me a while to realise, just knew I recognised him haha) taking over Wrexham. Well that I didn't see coming haha!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
ELO going through a pit again at the moment. The previously reliable Romanian Liga II is now seeming anything but.
Trying to be more careful with my odds but when Petrolul went behind the inplay stats supported it was against the run of play. Then it went 0-2 and a red for home. Re-laid as is normal.
Few minutes later home have a pen. Great, a route out and maybe even small green.
Nope, sack that off. Pen missed. Have I broken a truck load of mirrors I'm unaware of haha??!!
To put it into context last year I had 6 selections from Liga 2 and onlly one small loss so while people had warned me about Romania there was no real reason to stop.
Since Aug I have had 4 selections and already two losses so the 83% s/r has hit 70% and for all the money made prev that has almost certainly been wiped out and more given how the stake increased.
There's also been one in particular I remember I couldn't get on as didn't go inplay. Big price and another loser.
Leaving this league alone from now on.
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
ELO going through a pit again at the moment. The previously reliable Romanian Liga II is now seeming anything but.
Trying to be more careful with my odds but when Petrolul went behind the inplay stats supported it was against the run of play. Then it went 0-2 and a red for home. Re-laid as is normal.
Few minutes later home have a pen. Great, a route out and maybe even small green.
Nope, sack that off. Pen missed. Have I broken a truck load of mirrors I'm unaware of haha??!!
To put it into context last year I had 6 selections from Liga 2 and onlly one small loss so while people had warned me about Romania there was no real reason to stop.
Since Aug I have had 4 selections and already two losses so the 83% s/r has hit 70% and for all the money made prev that has almost certainly been wiped out and more given how the stake increased.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
ELO going through a pit again at the moment. The previously reliable Romanian Liga II is now seeming anything but.
Trying to be more careful with my odds but when Petrolul went behind the inplay stats supported it was against the run of play. Then it went 0-2 and a red for home. Re-laid as is normal.
Few minutes later home have a pen. Great, a route out and maybe even small green.
Nope, sack that off. Pen missed. Have I broken a truck load of mirrors I'm unaware of haha??!!
0-3 now. Romania 2 is officially on my s**t list. Last year scarcely a loss. This year, scarcely a win. I do wonder how much Covid is affecting some of the lower leagues. Is their more corruption as teams fighting to stay alive??!
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ELO going through a pit again at the moment. The previously reliable Romanian Liga II is now seeming anything but.
Trying to be more careful with my odds but when Petrolul went behind the inplay stats supported it was against the run of play. Then it went 0-2 and a red for home. Re-laid as is normal.
Few minutes later home have a pen. Great, a route out and maybe even small green.
Nope, sack that off. Pen missed. Have I broken a truck load of mirrors I'm unaware of haha??!!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Yes! This is actually how I started, I was backing horses and couldn't pick a winner for love nor money, turned out you could lay them - then I found Betfair!
Amazing
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@john-hurst I've mentioned quite a bit in the past about how if something is going very badly why not do the opposite, if your strategy is literally losing money hand over fist you would make money doing the opposite. i guess it's hard with human nature to do that but you would beat the rake no problem if it was doing that bad
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This is going to sound really simple but if you dont like the look of a trade- ie backing over 2.5 goals then why dont you trade the opposite of that? Seems really obvious but after watching a video about it, it was an eye opener. Not enough is said about going against the market- i think the vast majority have their blinkers on and dont actually think about their decisions within the markets. The 'herd mentality' is contagious.
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Early days but if the ratings you are using are exclusive to BTC then it could be that it indeed does have an edge on the market. It’s certainly more likely than using the same old stats that every other trader has access to like % of games going over 2.5 or having 2 x H2 goals etc.
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@bottlabroon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Currently working on a H2 O1.5/O2.5 strat using ratings only. Also working on using stats only and currently the one using ratings is by far exceeding the one using stats. Think it shows there's a lot more nitty gritty that's picked up by the ratings which normal use of the stats just doesn't see.
I think the major problems with stats Richard is that they are reflected in the markets, it's why I rely on IP stats so much.
The Betfair markets are extremely efficient and are dominated by syndicates, particularly Asian ones who have vast programming power running complex algorithms. Why do we think we are better than them at spotting value in the markets?
When I first got involved in football trading I spent a vast amount of time analysing stats to the nth degree and at the end of year 1, guess what I broke even more or less
It only served to tell me what I already knew, that the markets are bloody efficient and it's extremely difficult to get an edge.I've always used Bet Angel to trade and Peter Webb developed an extremely good model for predicting price movements called soccer mystic and what it brought home to me was how much the markets moved in a uniform way. If the price on over 2.5 started at 2.00 then after 15 minutes at 0-0 it would be around 2.57, after 30 minutes at 0-0 it would be around 3.65 completely irrespective of what was happening in a match. It wouldn't matter if the match was a complete borefest or end to end action, the markets would decay at the same steady rate. It was this that made me realise that any chance I had of getting a decent edge was to try and identify those matches in play that were looking more likely to have goals and, more importantly, trying to predict when a goal might come.
It's extremely difficult to get an edge over the big syndicates with pre-match stats.
Think you're right but what strikes me is how I set up 2 very similar strats to track looking for a boatload of second half goals thinking I would get a lot of duplication and this would help me in finding something which used the stats rather than ratings.
There is a certain amount of duplication for sure but try as I might
I canot replicate what I'm getting from ratings on the stats in terms of both matches and results.
No matter what I do I can't get the stats filter much better than 50-55%
Looking at the ratings the results are so far following a very logical path and I know it's only a couple of weeks but it's enough to show me I need to keep tracking.
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Currently working on a H2 O1.5/O2.5 strat using ratings only. Also working on using stats only and currently the one using ratings is by far exceeding the one using stats. Think it shows there's a lot more nitty gritty that's picked up by the ratings which normal use of the stats just doesn't see.
I think the major problems with stats Richard is that they are reflected in the markets, it's why I rely on IP stats so much.
The Betfair markets are extremely efficient and are dominated by syndicates, particularly Asian ones who have vast programming power running complex algorithms. Why do we think we are better than them at spotting value in the markets?
When I first got involved in football trading I spent a vast amount of time analysing stats to the nth degree and at the end of year 1, guess what I broke even more or less
It only served to tell me what I already knew, that the markets are bloody efficient and it's extremely difficult to get an edge.I've always used Bet Angel to trade and Peter Webb developed an extremely good model for predicting price movements called soccer mystic and what it brought home to me was how much the markets moved in a uniform way. If the price on over 2.5 started at 2.00 then after 15 minutes at 0-0 it would be around 2.57, after 30 minutes at 0-0 it would be around 3.65 completely irrespective of what was happening in a match. It wouldn't matter if the match was a complete borefest or end to end action, the markets would decay at the same steady rate. It was this that made me realise that any chance I had of getting a decent edge was to try and identify those matches in play that were looking more likely to have goals and, more importantly, trying to predict when a goal might come.
It's extremely difficult to get an edge over the big syndicates with pre-match stats.
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne hopeless. Grealish was top quality though. That setup just isnt working- im sure southgate will keep trying it though haha
Problem is he is trying to cover up that there is no English Centre Half who can be described as better than mediocre by playing at least two defensive midfielders with needs to play the likes of Sancho, Foden etc and how does Mount play all the time when James Maddison can’t even get in the squad, I know I’m biased but if Mount wasn’t at Chelsea wouldn’t be anywhere near an England squad
