The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@bottlabroon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Indeed. I think it might be time to take stock of my goals trading. Pre Covid lockdowns I was running at 19.6% ROI on my goals and correct score trades. Since lockdown (no crowds) it's now below 4%. It's definitely having an effect.
Interesting analysis:
Pre-Covid Avge goal per match
All shortlisted matches - 3.01 goals per game
Traded Matches - 3.24 Goals goals per gamePost-Covid Avge goal per match
All shortlisted matches - 3.21 goals per game
Traded Matches - 3.44 Goals goals per gameSo on both on my shortlisted trades and my actual trades I'm seeing an extra 0.2 goals per game since lockdown (no crowds) but my ROI is much less????
Variance? Value? Something else?
Definitely needs more analysis..... -
@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Backing another in tromso
another poor one
Indeed. I think it might be time to take stock of my goals trading. Pre Covid lockdowns I was running at 19.6% ROI on my goals and correct score trades. Since lockdown (no crowds) it's now below 4%. It's definitely having an effect.
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@bottlabroon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Taken over 2.5 at Tromso @ 2.22
Laid U1.5 @ 1.62 for scratch
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@bottlabroon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Will take over 1.5 Stjordals-Blink @ 2.40
Laid U0.5 @ 1.60 for scratch
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Backing another in tromso
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Backing over 1.5 goals in tromso match 2H, split stake
goal 1-0
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Will take over 1.5 Stjordals-Blink @ 2.40
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Backing over 1.5 goals in tromso match 2H, split stake
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https://www.thestatsdontlie.com/football
this is a decent website for stats -
no live stream of tromso?
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Taken over 2.5 at Tromso @ 2.22
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@alan-steward
https://www.thestatsdontlie.com/football/stat-leaders/1st-2nd-half-goals/
https://www.thestatsdontlie.com/football/stat-leaders/early-late-goals/
Has similar lists for O1.5, O2.5 etc
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer not sure if it makes a difference but they are playing in a different home stadium mate
Possibly mate. Also, I'm looking at the ELO difference. It's 105. Close to the edge. Not wanting to make snap decisions on this anymore but may come a point where I increase requirements.
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Afternoon all... Does anybody know of a site that shows a league table with goal performance/conversions ie how leagues perform with o/u0.5 fhg goals o/u1.5 fhg goals... Shg and even unders etc
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@richard-latimer not sure if it makes a difference but they are playing in a different home stadium mate
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Viktoria Zizkov behind. Looks a bit 50/50 but this league has served me well enough so far. Laid Trinec.
Re-laid
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Viktoria Zizkov behind. Looks a bit 50/50 but this league has served me well enough so far. Laid Trinec.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Overs in before HT at Grorud. I didn't get in as felt the prices were quite skinny.
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@martin-futter Norway 2 is omitted on my sub filters from the main SHG filters on around 3 that I'm currently following... My New filter is set up slightly differently so will do nominal trades with that league today on my bot and see how they fair... All other games I will trade with slightly higher stakes but still low as it's a new filter... That said I've followed similar stats for a while (circa 3 months data which isn't fully updated) and it looked very promising indeed
Filter Conversion Rates for Obos-Ligaen is;
One filter 76% conversion
2nd filter 76%
3rd filter 79%It has picked up of late but written it off for the season on theses 3 filters as I want to see minimum 80% conversion rates
