The BTC Football Trading Thread

Richard Latimer

@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer be interested to see the ratings system for h2 goals.

I'm at that point where the ELO's are faultering and this is flying but I don't have anywhere near enough data yet.......and yet......I still want to push the button. Got 20-6 on H2 over 1.5 goals so far and around 50% s/r on H2 over 2.5 goals.

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@richard-latimer be interested to see the ratings system for h2 goals.

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@chris-osborne hopeless. Grealish was top quality though. That setup just isnt working- im sure southgate will keep trying it though haha

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Backing another in tromso

another poor one

Currently working on a H2 O1.5/O2.5 strat using ratings only. Also working on using stats only and currently the one using ratings is by far exceeding the one using stats. Think it shows there's a lot more nitty gritty that's picked up by the ratings which normal use of the stats just doesn't see.

I mention because Tromso was in the stats one but ruled out from the ratings one.

Richard Latimer

@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Backing another in tromso

another poor one

Currently working on a H2 O1.5/O2.5 strat using ratings only. Also working on using stats only and currently the one using ratings is by far exceeding the one using stats. Think it shows there's a lot more nitty gritty that's picked up by the ratings which normal use of the stats just doesn't see.

Richard Latimer

@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

2-0 down at HT and replace one Defensive Midfielder with another why not bring a Foden or Sancho on and go for it better yet pick them from the start - glad I'm not watching TV would be smashed

Hate international football. Bores me stupid. Haven't watched since the last tournament I don't think but that's a bit different.

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2-0 down at HT and replace one Defensive Midfielder with another why not bring a Foden or Sancho on and go for it better yet pick them from the start - glad I'm not watching TV would be smashed

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not sure what englands formation is here, nor are the players by the looks of it lol

Stuart Capstick

@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I think Belgium's price looks value this evening. The FHG price is already 1.47.

Goal 1-0

Stuart Capstick

@chris-osborne

You watch, Rice will play like Keane, Modric, Pirlo and Gattuso rolled into one this evening and score two, set up another and keep De Bruyne in his pocket; just to spite me.

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@stuart-capstick In all honesty Southgate has taken them as far as he can and is clearly out of his depth but the FA will do FA for want of a better analogy

bottlabroon

@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@bottlabroon have you filtered it down to leagues mate? could be a couple performing poorer and more selections chosen for those given leagues

I think the leak is actually me and the way I'm trading mate - I'm being too cautious.
Prior to lockdown I was trading most of my games in the correct score markets, since lockdown I've been a lot more nervous/cautious of the impact of no crowds on goals and have been taking the easy way out in the unders/overs markets when my strength (and most of my profit) comes from the CS markets. I think the under/over markets are far more efficient than the CS markets and it's impacting my bottom line. My average profit per winning trade is much more when using the CS markets.

Back to the correct score markets I go......

Stuart Capstick

@john-hurst

Or somehow pull off a 0-0 of comic incompetence and sheer good fortune, that gets reported as "plucky", "backs to the wall", "true grit" or some other shite war-related nonsense.

I'd rather they played like Keegan's Newcastle (even Ardiles' Newcastle would do) and maybe lose 4-3.

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@stuart-capstick have a feeling england might get spanked tonight, that would burst the bubble and might make southgate re-think

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@bottlabroon have you filtered it down to leagues mate? could be a couple performing poorer and more selections chosen for those given leagues

Stuart Capstick

@chris-osborne
He realises that English defenders currently suck on a dead dog, so he has to clog the midfield with "willing runners" and wing-backs. Trippier is actually quite good, though.

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@stuart-capstick What can't Southgate see in these clowns that the rest of us can

Stuart Capstick

I think Belgium's price looks value this evening. The FHG price is already 1.47.

Stuart Capstick

@chris-osborne

Jesus....

The Mackem T-Rex in goal, the brains trust in the back three (mind you, at least Einstein Maguire isn't there) and Declan Rice, the chicken in search of a head.

This is a time when England only really have quality in attack. May as well actually try to become a team that neutrals enjoy watching and just play to score more goals than the opposition. There is no way England can stop the opposition or keep the ball long enough to frustrate them with Rice in there; I'm not going to criticise Henderson. But England would be better off with Foden/Bellingham/even Winks: they can all keep the ball or at least pass forwards ( I set high bars for midfielders, I know).

At least Grealish is included.

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Dreadful England team selection will give it a miss - at least 6 of that team shouldn't be anywhere near an England squad let alone playing