The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@bottlabroon Nice one... Cheers mate
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@alan-steward
Give me a day or 2 and I'll knock you up a spreadsheet where you can input the starting price for over 2.5 which should be readily available on sofascore/flashscores and it will give you the projected lay odds at various time points from HT onwards for +1, +2 & +3 goals.
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Jesus! The amount of football in December is wild. Looks like the major leagues aren't having a winter break, with the exception of the German Bundesliga. They are having a 10 day break. I think they normally take a month!
Also the Australian A-League starts back on the 27th December
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@bottlabroon cheers mate... I believe live time studies are needed... Could kick myself after being so focused over the weekend only to overlook the moving odds grrrr! Onwards and upwards lol
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@bottlabroon Theres a live Latvian game where the market clearly isn't expecting many more goals
Plus 2 goals 1.8
Plus 3 goals 1.25
Plus 4 goals 1.07All HT odds
Live test as I'm not sure my calculations are suitable for what you're trying to do.
Overs on the Latvian game started at 1.98.
Based on my calcs from that at 60 mins I'd expect the 3.5 price to lay to be about 1.33 and the 4.5 price to be around 1.08,
70 Mins 1.17 & 1.04, 80 mins 1.06/1.01Actual 60 mins 1.37/1.08
Actual 70 mins 1.18/1.03
Actual 80 mins 1.07/1.01
Close enough I reckon
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@bottlabroon Theres a live Latvian game where the market clearly isn't expecting many more goals
Plus 2 goals 1.8
Plus 3 goals 1.25
Plus 4 goals 1.07All HT odds
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@bottlabroon Hi mate, yes so those odds were from the same game (believe I've got them correct lol)
Plus 2 goals 2.25
Plus 3 goals 1.45
Plus 4 goals 1.13Maybe I will track inplay odds and note them down, will drop you a message when I've tracked a few games
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@bottlabroon Spot on mate... Can you do me a huge favour and let me know what you would calculate for the following odds at HT... I noted these whilst trying a new trade over the weekend but not where they where at future points of the game, and the odds I have were for games with strong goal expectancy so from your average I can work with adding a %
What would you estimate for the following HT odds
Plus 2 goals (2.25)
Plus 3 goals (1.45)
Plus 4 goals (1.13)My notes are in brackets so if you use the same benchmark as below I might be able to add a certain %
Are these odds from the same game Alan? I'm struggling to correlate them.
2.25 to lay + 2 goals at HT would suggest starting odds in the over 2.5 to be around 1.65. That would give back odds at half time for 2 goals of around 1.80 therefore around 2.25 to lay. Running those numbers would give rough prices to lay +3 goals at 1.23 and 4 goals at around 1.06 which are miles off your figures?
There is either something wrong with my calculations or they are from different matches
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My SHG picks of the day
Switzerland - Challenge League - 23/11/2020 19:00 - Aarau v Grasshoppers
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie - 23/11/2020 17:45 - Jong AZ v NijmegenWill keep a keen eye on this one as season is drawing to a close and neither team has anything to play for
Sweden - Allsvenskan - 23/11/2020 18:00 - Sirius v MjallbySorry and as per Lee's picks Norrkoping is also on the watchlist
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@bottlabroon Cheers buddy, nice one... Oh and you're a brave man taking on a CS4 in Turkey
It's one of my favourite trades.By the way was around 14pts green yesterday trying my new trade albeit low stakes as it was a new trade... It was also over 13 games so took a little doing, I wouldn't normally trade anywhere near that amount of games manually in a day but obviously this was exception to the rule due to testing and moving forward it should be a fairly simple process to "Automate" the trade
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@alan-steward
Leave it with me mate and I'll see what I can do. My calculation sheets use the 2.5 SP so will need a bit of jiggery pokey to get there.
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@bottlabroon Spot on mate... Can you do me a huge favour and let me know what you would calculate for the following odds at HT... I noted these whilst trying a new trade over the weekend but not where they where at future points of the game, and the odds I have were for games with strong goal expectancy so from your average I can work with adding a %
What would you estimate for the following HT odds
Plus 2 goals (2.25)
Plus 3 goals (1.45)
Plus 4 goals (1.13)My notes are in brackets so if you use the same benchmark as below I might be able to add a certain %
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Morning all, hopefully you had a green weekend... Am doing a study on SHG trading and wonder if anybody can help out with my query below;
Average "Lay Odds" in the "Over Goals Market" at the various time points (obviously the over/under odds follow through as goals are scored so although not to be ignored the scoreline isn't so relevant
)60-69 mins on CS, plus 1 Goal & plus 2 Goals
70-79 mins on CS, plus 1 Goal & plus 2 Goals
80-89 mins on CS, plus 1 Goal & plus 2 GoalsCheers guys
Hi Alan,
Not 100% sure what you're asking here mate, but I'll have a stab....
Obviously the odds are relevant to the starting prices to a large extent as that theoretically determines the chance of goals.
Assuming a starting price 2.00 on the over/under 2.5 goals market you could expect the overs markets lay prices to be roughly as follows:
60 Minutes
+1 goal = 2.58
+2 goals = 1.3265 Minutes
+1 goal = 2.24
+2 goals = 1.2470 Minutes
+1 goal = 1.94
+2 goals = 1.1775 Minutes
+1 goal = 1.68
+2 goals = 1.1180 Minutes
+1 goal = 1.45
+2 goals = 1.0685 Minutes
+1 goal = 1.26
+2 goals = 1.03As I said earlier these are based around a starting price of 2.00 for over 2.5, if the starting price is say 1.60 for over 2.5 then the lay prices are obviously going to be higher with the greater market expectation of goals.
If you can calculate your average starting price for over 2.5 then I can re-calculate based on that figure.
Apologies if I've completely misunderstood and this isn't what you're looking for.
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Morning all, hopefully you had a green weekend... Am doing a study on SHG trading and wonder if anybody can help out with my query below;
Average "Lay Odds" in the "Over Goals Market" at the various time points (obviously the over/under odds follow through as goals are scored so although not to be ignored the scoreline isn't so relevant
)60-69 mins on CS, plus 1 Goal & plus 2 Goals
70-79 mins on CS, plus 1 Goal & plus 2 Goals
80-89 mins on CS, plus 1 Goal & plus 2 GoalsCheers guys
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A couple of games for today:
I will also keep an eye on the 2 Swedish games -
Goteborg vs Hacken - Goteborg can all but secure their survival with a win whilst if Hacken win this game in hand they jump into the play-off spot with just 2 games left
Norrkoping vs Falkenbergs - Norrkoping need to win this game in hand to have a chance of play-offs whilst Falkenbergs are all but relegated if they dont winBoth of these Swedish games were just shy of the minimum criteria so i will want the situation to be reflected in the IP stats. Im not after loads of goals, just one goal later in the SH so i will monitor these carefully
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Quite a few games today:
I wont trade all of these. In particular i will be cautious of Sweden & Norway as they get to the last few games of the season. I know a lot of people avoid leagues so late on but motivation is huge now, if you can play the situation correctly then its a good opportunity.
Sweden: Elfsborg are in 2nd place, 4 points clear in the play-offs so a win for them would secure that EL play-off spot. If they lose and Djurgarden in 4th spot win (kick off at the same time) then the pressure is really on for the last 2 games. They play bottom of the league so surely will fancy their chances. Helsingborg are bottom by 5 points so if they lose then they will be all but down; they would need to win their last 2 games and hope goteborg lose their last 3.
Norway: Odd are 4 points behind the EL play-off spot, they will want to win their game in hand to take them 1 point behind 3rd spot. Start are fighting relegation but only a couple of points off safety. Neither team can afford to lose so i will be very cautious of a closed game if 1-0 or 0-1. Stromsgodset are also fighting relegation so really need the points. If they are behind then id expect to see them go for it. Theyre playing a team who are 15 points clear. They could wrap up the league today, although theyve not really anything to lose. If either team are winning i would expect to see the other team going for it
So in those 3 games in particular i will be very conscious of the situation. These are from my filters so the stats are their from the previous games but i will want the action to reflect the situation
Goods results today ends a cracking long weekend of trading. 5 of 6 had SH goals after 60’. 2 solid filters + improved pre match research + more attention to IP stats is working much better!
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@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
LCS Back O2.5 Liverpool v Leicester 1.80 on 75
Beauty 3-0 YNWA
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LCS Back O2.5 Liverpool v Leicester 1.80 on 75
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
FHG liverpool vs leicester 0-0 17 mins
GOAL! 1-0 21 mins
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FHG liverpool vs leicester 0-0 17 mins
