The BTC Football Trading Thread

[Akiva Anderson]

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Lay Under 1.5 Goals:

14:30 - Borussia M'gladbach v Hoffenheim
15:00 - Tottenham Hotspur v Southampton
15:00 - Peterborough v Morecambe
15:00 - Mansfield v Tranmere
15:00 - Dagenham & Redbridge v Gateshead
15:00 - Nordsjælland v Viborg
15:00 - Genk v AS Eupen
16:30 - Mariehamn v Haka
17:00 - Rosenborg v HamKam
17:00 - Zlaté Moravce v Liptovský Mikuláš
17:45 - SC Cambuur v Excelsior
18:30 - Hartberg v Salzburg

Massive list today, which I don't like. So I'll focus on the two games in bold. My SHG list is also horrendous, so I'll probably just focus on the Premiership matches

SHG:

12:00 - Hamburg v Heidenheim
12:30 - Fulham v Liverpool
12:30 - Norwich v Wigan
14:00 - St Etienne v Nimes
14:00 - Norrkoping v Degerfors
14:30 - Union Berlin v Hertha Berlin
15:00 - Tottenham v Southampton
15:00 - Newcastle United v Nottingham Forest
15:00 - Burnley v Luton
15:00 - Sheffield United v Millwall
15:00 - Preston v Hull
15:00 - Oxford United v Cambridge
15:00 - Portsmouth v Lincoln
15:00 - Peterborough v Morecambe
15:00 - Mansfield v Tranmere
15:00 - Notts County v Maidenhead
17:00 - Rosenborg v Ham-Kam
17:15 - Charleroi v Oostende
17:30 - Everton v Chelsea
19:45 - Besiktas v Kayserispor

1.5's done and dusted by HT. On to the SHG now

[Nick Allan]

@dan-mackinnon good point never thought of WC, topsy turvey season of trading i guess

[Nick Allan]

@chris-osborne amen to that yeah im trading the summer leagues at the mo and the winter ones 8 games in

[A Former User]

@chris-osborne First games back for PL are boxing day, with three games that week and then FA Cup 3rd round may wait until after that - i guess its the same as the Winter break most countries have

[A Former User]

@dan-mackinnon Goodness knows will cross that bridge when we get there

[Dan MacKinnon]

@richard-latimer @Chris-Osborne I agree with you both. Yes you miss out on some but the winter leagues are still trading and if it means skipping august/ September it’s not so bad.

What are your thoughts on the return post-World Cup? Will you do the same?

[Richard Latimer]

@nick-allan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

So as the winter season starts across Europe can I ask how long people wait to actually trade games? I don't tend to trade until about seven to eight games into the season that tends to give me a pretty good guide into how teams are performing anyone go in earlier or later? Or do you start straight away and perhaps maybe reduce your stakes?

As @Chris-Osborne said, I've settled on 4 for a while now, just in terms of match fitness. I use last seasons data but only look at teams who were in the same league last season.

[A Former User]

@nick-allan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@chris-osborne i guess one of the true signs of a good trader is patience

Trading 101!

All the summer leagues are currently tradeable, cuts down the daily list also - last thing we want to be is at the computer all day on a Saturday

[Nick Allan]

@chris-osborne i guess one of the true signs of a good trader is patience

[A Former User]

@nick-allan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@chris-osborne blimey that 25% of most seasons, sometimes more?

Takes out some of the impact of variance

If you look at the Profitible members filters most of them have this as an initial criteria, I choose to split it home and away but each to there own @Richard-Latimer for instance has lower criteria on games played but he's alot stricter on teams in different divisions in the previous seasons

[Nick Allan]

@chris-osborne blimey that 25% of most seasons, sometimes more?

[A Former User]

@nick-allan a minimum of 5 homes and 5 away for me although may get involved in play in games I’m watching and something looks likely

[Nick Allan]

So as the winter season starts across Europe can I ask how long people wait to actually trade games? I don't tend to trade until about seven to eight games into the season that tends to give me a pretty good guide into how teams are performing anyone go in earlier or later? Or do you start straight away and perhaps maybe reduce your stakes?

[Mr. Emmet Moorehouse]

Todays lot:

[Akiva Anderson]

Lay Under 1.5 Goals:

14:30 - Borussia M'gladbach v Hoffenheim
15:00 - Tottenham Hotspur v Southampton
15:00 - Peterborough v Morecambe
15:00 - Mansfield v Tranmere
15:00 - Dagenham & Redbridge v Gateshead
15:00 - Nordsjælland v Viborg
15:00 - Genk v AS Eupen
16:30 - Mariehamn v Haka
17:00 - Rosenborg v HamKam
17:00 - Zlaté Moravce v Liptovský Mikuláš
17:45 - SC Cambuur v Excelsior
18:30 - Hartberg v Salzburg

Massive list today, which I don't like. So I'll focus on the two games in bold. My SHG list is also horrendous, so I'll probably just focus on the Premiership matches

SHG:

12:00 - Hamburg v Heidenheim
12:30 - Fulham v Liverpool
12:30 - Norwich v Wigan
14:00 - St Etienne v Nimes
14:00 - Norrkoping v Degerfors
14:30 - Union Berlin v Hertha Berlin
15:00 - Tottenham v Southampton
15:00 - Newcastle United v Nottingham Forest
15:00 - Burnley v Luton
15:00 - Sheffield United v Millwall
15:00 - Preston v Hull
15:00 - Oxford United v Cambridge
15:00 - Portsmouth v Lincoln
15:00 - Peterborough v Morecambe
15:00 - Mansfield v Tranmere
15:00 - Notts County v Maidenhead
17:00 - Rosenborg v Ham-Kam
17:15 - Charleroi v Oostende
17:30 - Everton v Chelsea
19:45 - Besiktas v Kayserispor

[Martin]

@ryan any way to unblur these?

[Ryan]

My HT LTD/HT LCS for today

[Mr. Emmet Moorehouse]

@mr-emmet-moorehouse said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Today's lot:

4/5. Not bad.

[Stuart Capstick]

@mr-emmet-moorehouse said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

As well as doing the SHG strategy , I have recently been testing a 1.5 goals filter.

Does anyone have any risk-management opinions regarding a situation where the same game comes up on both the 1.5G and SHG filter and it is either 0-0 or 1-0 at half time?

On the one hand it should make no difference as they are different bets based on an different set of statistics regarding two different outcomes. On the other hand do I really want to have so many points at risk on one game?

Any opinions?

Separate banks for each strategy. "Smooths the curve".

1. Far less toll on your frustration levels
2. Makes tracking/adjusting far easier
3. It makes more mathematical sense

[Richard Latimer]

@mr-emmet-moorehouse said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

As well as doing the SHG strategy , I have recently been testing a 1.5 goals filter.

Does anyone have any risk-management opinions regarding a situation where the same game comes up on both the 1.5G and SHG filter and it is either 0-0 or 1-0 at half time?

On the one hand it should make no difference as they are different bets based on an different set of statistics regarding two different outcomes. On the other hand do I really want to have so many points at risk on one game?

Any opinions?

I think it's why I'm staying away from systems that could potentially cross over!