The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
For trading to work you need both strike rate and price to compliment each other. You do not need huge strike rates to profit on betfair. Look at my sheet for example. Price is key, most traders or people looking to trade have something with a base level strike rate, the edge is very much more waited towards price.
Exactly. For example, if backing the draw, you get prices of upwards of 3: a strike rate of 40% is highly profitable.
If you are backing 1.2, 80% strike rate is a long term loser.
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@darri thanks Darri
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@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne It did rattle me for a second too, but surely it doesnt really matter as long as the price you are getting when you trade makes a profit at whatever strike rate point you are basing your trades on.
Please anyone tell me the right way if I have that back to front and upside down
I completely agree with you but I think we’re at similar places in our trading journey’s
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For trading to work you need both strike rate and price to compliment each other. You do not need huge strike rates to profit on betfair. Look at my sheet for example. Price is key, most traders or people looking to trade have something with a base level strike rate, the edge is very much more waited towards price.
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@matt-wood why we played 5 at the back last night I have know idea. We’ve lost 3 home games this season against villa, West Ham and Fulham pretty much says everything with all due respect.
The sooner Perreira, Castagne, NDidi and Soyuncu are back the better
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@chris-osborne It did rattle me for a second too, but surely it doesnt really matter as long as the price you are getting when you trade makes a profit at whatever strike rate point you are basing your trades on.
Please anyone tell me the right way if I have that back to front and upside down
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@Matt-Wood thanks for the reply re strike rates I would tend to agree @Alan-Steward’s comments about strike rates of 80% has worried me a bit until I look at scratch trades
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@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne
Evening Chris. For me at least, my strike rates are everything, its just raw data, no trades are included. Once I have more data to play with I will be messing around with this to see what happens. I will always me recording no trades on my 'master' sheet though.
The free bet situation I would think you still count it as a winner since you needed the 'thing' to happen in order to create the free bet?
Im sure some of the more experienced heads would give better answers than me though
Oh your boys let me down yesterday, put Vardy in my dream team especially
Let down was a bit of an understatement to how I felt I was raging. Rodgers is clueless most of the time
Yea Ive always been undecided about Rodgers, seems a bit of a nearly man really. No plan b in his game bag.
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@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne
Evening Chris. For me at least, my strike rates are everything, its just raw data, no trades are included. Once I have more data to play with I will be messing around with this to see what happens. I will always me recording no trades on my 'master' sheet though.
The free bet situation I would think you still count it as a winner since you needed the 'thing' to happen in order to create the free bet?
Im sure some of the more experienced heads would give better answers than me though
Oh your boys let me down yesterday, put Vardy in my dream team especially
Let down was a bit of an understatement to how I felt I was raging. Rodgers is clueless most of the time
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@chris-osborne
Evening Chris. For me at least, my strike rates are everything, its just raw data, no trades are included. Once I have more data to play with I will be messing around with this to see what happens. I will always be recording no trades on my 'master' sheet though.
The free bet situation I would think you still count it as a winner since you needed the 'thing' to happen in order to create the free bet?
Im sure some of the more experienced heads would give better answers than me though
Oh your boys let me down yesterday, put Vardy in my dream team especially
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When calculating strike rates, how do you account for trades where you create a free bet but don’t get the overall win effectively a scratch trade.
Also potential trades where the goal comes too early for example making it a no trade, I presume are ignored when determining strike rates?
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@alan-steward cheers alan im limiting the use of it really, only getting involved in certain games from now on. Looking to do things differently the next month
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This post is deleted!
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward be lucky to find a filter that producing 80% of H2 goals after 80 mate. This one has a goal after 60’ 134/181. This isnt just the first goal though so for after 60 for first H2 goal it will be much lower
Sorry mate maybe I didn't explain myself well enough... If trading/probability betting on 60mins for SHG you really need a strike rate of 80%... Don't think I mentioned 80mins
If I interpret your message correctly your filter currently converts 134/181 ='s 74.6% about average for a SHG filter straight out of the box (towards the better end)... You could probably easily tweak that to produce 80% S/R post 59 mins (first goal or not)... That's what I do mate
Just trying to help out after you were saying at the weekend that you're struggling to trade/bet profitably... However this information is probably about as much use as a chocolate tea pot if you trade your filter from HT with plus 2 goals so my appologies.
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@darri Yea I didnt think much of it at first due to not having much data but now they are approaching 200 games total on each filter the difference is quite remarkable.
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@matt-wood those are huge difference in results
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@matt-wood what is a/b? quality of leagues? Iv not tracked that filter in a while
That is just my way of separating out the leagues. Purely subjective for now although in the future I may look to have the data drive that.
The leagues I consider to be of a higher quality, e.g. English Prem, Serie A etc, are tracked as 'A' and the rest as 'B'. Spreadsheet is set up in such a way that I can easily switch a league from one to another and back if I want to.
Edit: I should say the a and b thing was @ Lee woodman 's idea and I just copied it and ran
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will be keeping an eye on these for a goal post 75 mins depending on where teams stand in their respective tables.
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@john-hurst ive always found it to be a higher strike rate when dealing with the first goal after 60 compared to any goal after 60 with filters ive used
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@matt-wood what is a/b? quality of leagues? Iv not tracked that filter in a while
