The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Backed over 2.5 in Estoril @ 3.05
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer excellent, excellent post!
Agreed, top stuff, also , selfishly again, makes me feel a little better about my shitshow of a weekend
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@richard-latimer excellent, excellent post!
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I've avoided posting much in this forum recently preferring to update my own thread. However I think there may be something I can add to the postmortem of the weekend and not everyone reads my thread.
I've had a shocking time of recent. From being green 3 months on the bounce I think I'm now going to be red 4 months on the bounce. This has all coincided with the loss of the ELO comeback strategy which ceased working for me in no small part due to the extreme circumstances of what's happening This year. Ever since I've been bouncing around like a yoyo from one thing to another and not really giving anything the chance to develop
I THINK I'm on the right path now but it's too early to say for sure and I have a lot of ground to make back. Incidentally if I had stuck to my own ideas and my own selections I00% yesterday I would have fared better. Not amazing but better.
My ratings based idea saw goals galore so this is where they muast have gone. Loads in Greece, Italy, Austria with Olympiakos, Atalanta and Salzburg.
My LTD would have been 2/3 with a an overnighter in Bolivia, another in Romania and then of course the shitshow in Lille. I think could have been close to break even there.
In terms of FH plays I had a couple of successful ones where I got into a winning position and removed red but then nothing came of the second half. Looking at you Vitesse and Copenhagen. As I alluded to the other day I'm trying the Frode methodology of backing over 2.5 with a bigger price than kickoff and removing red after FG or redding @ 0-0 HT.
One thing I have noticed with mine after I stupidly used this on the Lille game too is how much better FHG plays with a home favourite. Not necessarily a big favourite but close to evens at worst. I track all kickoff prices from ave bookie prices on oddsportal.com as I think this gives me a good idea and isn't moveable like the betfair price.
After that I notice there were numerous H2 plays I could have got on that may well have been fruitful but after lost faith in myself I tried piggybacking. Chose the the wrong day to do that and ended up all at at sea.
Perhaps markedly different from most at the moment I have created one filter that I'm trying to exploit in different ways. There aren't loads of criteria. As has been mentioned recently I've got overall ave 3+ goals as my base.
I've then used ave home goals + ave home goals H1/H2 as my main driver.
I'm going with the theory that if a home team is likely to come out and take the game to the opponent whether they are the favourite or not then more goals should be the outcome Splitting between H1 & H2 should show me if these goals are likely to come in the FH or the SH or even both.
I did say I was going to take a break until after Christmas but I'm frankly not sure anymore. IF I was going to play on any tonight these would be the ones I'd be looking at:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Nothing qualifying on my filters today other than a split stake in Jong PSV game but with starting odds of 1.14 I prob wont get involved.
Nominal green for me over the weekend sorry to see that some had a tough ride unfortunately that's trading or punting as some prefer.
I can also agree that the Bundesliga is performing nowhere near where it did last year and as Ryan eluded to earlier, the qty of games players are expected to play in such a short space of time is ludicrous. My team Norwich at one point had something like 12 1st team players out injured at the same time... We're coming out the other side of that now and thankfully we're still top. However the way this seasons going I wouldn't put money on us staying there.
Stay green
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Id love it if someone here managed to get through that weekend from hell in profit.
I managed somewhere between 1 and 2 points down which im actually delighted with considering how things went
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@bottlabroon its interesting looked up this same weekend from the bundesliga last year and there was 7/9 game with a goal post 70min, year before that 5/9 and this year pretty much the same 6/9. So while we are saying this nothing much has changed i did the same with premier league its the same. So actually this comes back to what i said in my post earlier maybe its this time of year as a whole that there is a slight reduction in late goals which is what most people are referring to for this weekend, actually i do think you could probably isolate and analyse this couple of weeks as its consistently intense schedule always and same amount of games. Its the build up to this couple of weeks. Probably why most european leagues have a break. Iv only got 2 years of results trading SHGs so no hard data in regards to what games from this broad data id have traded because end of day thats the actual data that matters, the ones you would have traded, the broad data that people will brandish like the ones i just did dont truely show how a strategy would work in these given times. From my own data last year i broke even between the 16th decemeber - 23rd december but made 16% overall in the month, this year iv actually made a loss on that week, but as like last year iv made more in the first week and a half when it wasnt so intense, so while its limited its following a trend ill only be able to see after a few more years. Remember guys its all specific to your way of trading not just general data.
Fair comment Darri, and we're probably both looking at it from our own perspective, you from a late goal point of view and me from a total goals point of view.
From the main European leagues that I play, in this weekend last year 60% of all matches went over 2.5 goals which is roughly what I'd expect...... This year, same weekend only 36% went over 2.5 goals!
That's absolutely massive for me and the way I trade.
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@matt-wood I took a 9 point loss for the last 10 days. Pretty consistent! Back to scratch for the month, At least i can take something slightly positive from that.
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@john-hunt said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@darri very insightful mate, and has made me really think also. I couldn’t buy a late goal for best part of the weekend. It actually became painful and inevitable even though stats ect said otherwise.
Anyway always enjoy your posts and the depth you go into no matter the subject. Thanks for the brain snap, cause I’m thinking you’re onto something there.Thanks bud, quite passionate about trading and learning the details not sure if anyone can tell
glad you enjoy them mate if you can move past the waffle at times i do hope i provide decent posts sometimes -
@bottlabroon its interesting looked up this same weekend from the bundesliga last year and there was 7/9 game with a goal post 70min, year before that 5/9 and this year pretty much the same 6/9. So while we are saying this nothing much has changed i did the same with premier league its the same. So actually this comes back to what i said in my post earlier maybe its this time of year as a whole that there is a slight reduction in late goals which is what most people are referring to for this weekend, actually i do think you could probably isolate and analyse this couple of weeks as its consistently intense schedule always and same amount of games. Its the build up to this couple of weeks. Probably why most european leagues have a break. Iv only got 2 years of results trading SHGs so no hard data in regards to what games from this broad data id have traded because end of day thats the actual data that matters, the ones you would have traded, the broad data that people will brandish like the ones i just did dont truely show how a strategy would work in these given times. From my own data last year i broke even between the 16th decemeber - 23rd december but made 16% overall in the month, this year iv actually made a loss on that week, but as like last year iv made more in the first week and a half when it wasnt so intense, so while its limited its following a trend ill only be able to see after a few more years. Remember guys its all specific to your way of trading not just general data.
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@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Morning all.
Just reading through the posts on here, rather selfishly, has made me feel a little better about this weekend. I took a bit hit and wondered what I have been doing wrong. Seems most people took a bit of a hit this weekend so maybe it wasn't me
Thats not true totally though, I know I mad some very bad choices this weekend but didnt expect to take such a hit as I did.I was thinking along the lines that @Darri has mentioned. I have not been around long enough to see years of data but wondered if this time of year is just plain bad for some things. One for the seasoned traders to answer there.
Also covid has to be having an effect on things, but again I have only been here since the outbreak of covid so don't any different.
As I said in a previous post Matt, nobody can really answer the question as we're in unchartered territory here. Many European leagues are used to an extended winter break which they won't get this year and that's coming on the back of a reduced pre-season break. Many of these players are not used to this kind of schedule and fatigue will definitely be an issue for some.
We can't judge anything on a week or 2 in isolation but it's interesting to me that the premier league where players are more used to a hectic Xmas/January schedule seemed to hold good for goals whereas the Bundesliga where they are not saw a sharp fall off in goals. Is it just coincidence or is it fatigue? We won't be able to answer that for a while yet but I think it will pay to be cautious until we know more.
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I wouldn’t say usually this time of years bad for goals and trading in general, but I use the word usually we aren’t in a usual year, the amount of games these players have played already and continue to play is beyond me it’s crazy - it’s going to have an impact.
Next season too players need a rest, euros are coming too, olympics plus god knows what else.
The stats tell us one thing which enables us to pick our games we have to remember that sometimes it doesn’t go to plan, Liverpool v Fulham a game on paper Liverpool should have smashed Fulham yet tiredness / games built up Liverpool are still better than Fulham but hence the result.
Any trader on here struggling can get help in the private coaching too from @martin-futter or myself as well.
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@lee-woodman mate it wasn’t just you, the PSG game for example looked like they styled for a draw 25 mins out. Tough tough weekend.
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@darri very insightful mate, and has made me really think also. I couldn’t buy a late goal for best part of the weekend. It actually became painful and inevitable even though stats ect said otherwise.
Anyway always enjoy your posts and the depth you go into no matter the subject. Thanks for the brain snap, cause I’m thinking you’re onto something there. -
Morning all.
Just reading through the posts on here, rather selfishly, has made me feel a little better about this weekend. I took a big hit and wondered what I have been doing wrong. Seems most people took a bit of a hit this weekend so maybe it wasn't me
Thats not true totally though, I know I mad some very bad choices this weekend but didnt expect to take such a hit as I did.I was thinking along the lines that @Darri has mentioned. I have not been around long enough to see years of data but wondered if this time of year is just plain bad for some things. One for the seasoned traders to answer there.
Also covid has to be having an effect on things, but again I have only been here since the outbreak of covid so don't any different.
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@lee-woodman its interesting maybe one of the more seasoned veterans can say iv only been trading for 2 years and dont have enough data to say but maybe this time of year is better for other strategies than the late goals. It was evident in a few matches this weekend that teams were getting golden chances but just had tired attempts/poor touches. I mean in 3/4 of my own trades there were some absolute sitters missed even on the winning trades that normally are tap ins. I think fatigue at this time of year is huge hypothetically i have no data for this. I looked back to last year and people saying this years schedule is worse, its actually not, this time last year spurs and chelsea both played 8 games after the nov international break this year itll have been 9 after tonights round of games. I think for me im going to focus more on trading the bigger teams, those that can rotate better against teams who cant: think back to fergies united always came good during this period maybe its because the bigger teams can handle it better. I still only trade when the key players are playing tho but it seems the rest of the lineups may need to be factored in more and more now, as in is this a rotated and fresher lineup. I normally enter late on because defences get tired and opens the game up, this weekend seemed to be the opposite and the attackers were tired too. Def trading more cautious until the schedules return to normal in jan, might switch to only 0-1 LCS with bigger teams losing and needing to score. However im happy to concede if it was just my trades being below par this weekend, but from my own data its clearly been something amiss this week
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For what its worth, here is my shortlist for today:
Got to be mega mega careful today so id rather trade nothing than a bad trade after this weekend
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Absolutely ridiculous day yesterday! I ended up taking a big hit but i dont think it was picking bad trades or making bad calls that did me. Ive had a look at just some of the games which i either traded, was monitoring, or just happened to notice the game and none of these had a goal after 60':
I wonder what the odds on an ACCA wouldve been by backing the current scoreline at 60'!
Still on a positive i didnt lose my head, didnt place stupid/revenge/erratic trades so i guess thats something. Obviously something is going on this weekend but i dont know if its exclusive to this weekend so need to be mega careful for the rest of the month
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@daniel-mills said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer yep. Taken a pasting. On to greener pastures (hopefully) this week.
I'm taking a break until Christmas is out of the way. Clear the head and carry on collecting data with nothing at risk. Will still be around. GL.
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@richard-latimer yep. Taken a pasting. On to greener pastures (hopefully) this week.
