The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@lee-woodman
No, he's definitely not new to the game. In a weird way, I admire his purposefulness, if not his decisions.
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@lee-woodman nah he’s been smashing it for a while and had some huge wins - all relative.
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@stuart-capstick he’s been about a while, I do too. He does make me laugh with some of his tweets he really doesn’t give a s*** does he with what he posts sometimes.
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@stuart-capstick Hes got to know what he’s doing though to have 20k on one game and be in a position to lose 42k in a month? I don’t know the guy but he can’t be a newbie surely
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@ryan-carruthers
Yep. To be honest, I thought this would have happened earlier.
His strategies were fine, but with that approach....Jesus. Hope he's OK.
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@stuart-capstick massive loss there, I also follow him. Nearly 20k loss on the Liverpool game wasn’t it?
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I've attached the tweet below to:
a) Show that there are no certs
b) Help put in perspective for some members that their month has not been that bad.I've had a very good December. However, it could easily have been a mediocre month. There were occasions when there were last second goals, penalties, mistakes by defenders etc, that all worked in my favour.
These are immaterial.
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@alastair-todd god it was, Liverpool never looked like scoring.
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Well Belgium game turned into bit of a damp squid
So did the Liverpool game! Never assume anything is a dead cert - frustrating end to the year.
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Well Belgium game turned into bit of a damp squid
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@bottlabroon hi mate, yes we come from the same stable with correct score but as of this year I started laying u2.5 goals for my 4 goal Dutch but generally traded the 3 goal dutch with live stats but thought I'd also cover CS3's today with o2.5 market... Small stakes on Celtic game and double bubble Celta Vigo was double bubble and I'm now in a CS4 with Beerschot game and layed u2.5... The dog scored in FH so
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@keith-anderson All the best to your dad Keith
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@alan-steward
Alan, on my correct score trading I always split stake between the correct scores and the corresponding overs market (in this case the over 2.5 if you're doing a 3 goal trade).I've lost count of the times that I've hit a correct score only for the Betfair monkeys to delay unsuspending the market and another quick goal going in wiping out all profits (and stake)!
Knowing I have at least scratch on the trade from the overs protects me against that and removes the pressure to make an immediate exit from the trade.
By all means cover the next overs up as well (I often do) but these days I find Betfair so unreliable I wouldn't dream of not covering my correct scores on the overs market as well.
@Keith-Anderson hoping your dad makes a speedy recovery.
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@keith-anderson Never mind trading Keith, we are all wishing your father well.
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When assessing a game pre KO to estimate Betfairs goal expectancy what would the odds be... Take Celtic v Dundee
I fancy dutching a 3 goal correct score here and Betfair offer the following odds for the overs market;
Back Prices
o0.5 = 1.03
01.5 = 1.15
o2.5 = 1.53
o3.5 = 2.36Above prices tell me that Betfair don't expect to see 4 goals in this game but I'm not so sure.
How can/would you analyse the above prices to asses Betfairs expectation.
Now these prices tell me to cover going over the 3 goal scoreline by backing o3.5 goals... Reckon there's a strong chance of at least 2 goals (can remove red here on correct score market), I don't see the game ending 1-0 or 0-0... Any thoughts?
By the way to test this theory I've set up small stakes on correct score & o3.5 goals
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
LTD / LCS in the Southampton v West Ham match. Currently 0-0 at HT
Obviously finished 0-0. Didn’t see the second half as my Father was rushed to hospital. Gonna be a quiet few days for me. Hopefully my Dad gets out of hospital tomorrow.
Hope your dad is ok mate. Best wishes.
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@keith-anderson Hope he gets well soon mate
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
LTD / LCS in the Southampton v West Ham match. Currently 0-0 at HT
Obviously finished 0-0. Didn’t see the second half as my Father was rushed to hospital. Gonna be a quiet few days for me. Hopefully my Dad gets out of hospital tomorrow.
hope he gets well soon mate!
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@keith-anderson thinking of you and your Dad mate.
