The BTC Football Trading Thread
-
@alastair-todd I sometimes find nights like tonight harder to manage than games where there’s loads on.
For example I had 2 to pick from tonight but neither qualified for a trade in my eyes, same as yesterday I had 3, turned one down that I could have entered an a no go on the other two.
I haven’t entered a trade since Monday and sometimes the longer it goes without one the harder it is to sit on your hands. If I ever feel like I’m bored or losing interest I just call it a day, even if I’ve got potentials or even if it’s in a game I’m supposed to be watching. Usually happens to me Saturday/Sunday evening if I’ve done a bit during the day.
I know that exact feeling though you’ve had tonight of itching to get into something. I had a passing thought about entering that very same game and just straight got up and in the shower (not just for something to do btw I was planning on it anyway) but it completely took me away from the situation.
-
@james-rome said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Hi All
was attempting to try a new plan tonight but didnt get a chance. On the ajax game tonight 0-0 was at 44 to back and lay at 48. My plan was to back at 44 and then lay at 40. but a goal went in after 2min so didnt get a chance to try. Put i noticed price of 0-0 can drop alot i noticed so thought might be a good way to get in and out with 10 to 15min. Just woundered if anyone has tried it before is it worth doing ?obvs if a goal goes in lose your stake
I don't like backing unders but the ones who do tend to back under 2.5 rather than under 0.5 as like you said, you will lose stake. Also, beware the odds for 0-0 are massively high because much of the time you have explosive teams. Like tonight those teams can and do score early quite often.
Track it by all means.
-
I need to be more disciplined. A bit bored this evening and entered some rubbish trades on the Arsenal match. A classic case of doing what Ryan said you shouldn't do - I didn't really have a clear idea of the strategy so had O1.5 and O2.5 on the same game which increasingly didn't look like providing any goals at all (actually the game was rubbish). Then I wasn't disciplined enough to bang out of the trade when I should have done. Annoyed with myself, so it's back to basics. Low risk, split-stake strategies for the time being is what's required to steady the ship. I've given myself a talking to!
-
Have to say I’ve had selections every day this week and the goals have either come too early or the game has really not been worth entering. Hopefully will pick up again from tomorrow and into the weekend.
-
@alastair-todd Wasn't watching the first half. Still, avoidable red. Decent stats, just a bit flat.
Is it me or is there a late goals drought at the moment, seems like they were coming in left right and centre before christmas???
-
@daniel-mills said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
LTD Arsenal - Crystal Palace 0-0
It's a pretty rubbish game so far Daniel! Not sure why Arsenal keep passing it backwards.
-
LTD Arsenal - Crystal Palace 0-0
-
Hi All
was attempting to try a new plan tonight but didnt get a chance. On the ajax game tonight 0-0 was at 44 to back and lay at 48. My plan was to back at 44 and then lay at 40. but a goal went in after 2min so didnt get a chance to try. Put i noticed price of 0-0 can drop alot i noticed so thought might be a good way to get in and out with 10 to 15min. Just woundered if anyone has tried it before is it worth doing ?obvs if a goal goes in lose your stake
-
@ryan-carruthers Ill give this a listen on audible. If you have any other good suggestions then let me know
-
@ryan-carruthers Interesting, just checked that out and the book is for sale on Amazon... Will order that
... But yes, sometimes I get bored lol. -
@alan-steward A very very wealthy man said to me about trading on the stock market (who also liked bet fair!) when trading/investing gets boring you know you are doing it right.
Now, I dont think the split stake is boring but it's unsexy and unsexy works. A great book to read on this is unsexy business. Great stories of how a simple unsexy business can be built up slowly then its got less chance of failing fast.
-
Some interesting convo here about trading and the power of mastering one strategy first and I feel that's something I can agree with 100%
I differ in how I trade to others in so much as I don't watch live games and mostly only trade from per game stats and this makes me green month in month out.
I feel if I had to watch live games to make money out of trading I'd rather get a full time job.
I trade pre match stats and it works for me and one of my most successful filters is my own Split Stake Filter which has just gone 36 games without loss and achieves 91% conversion (you really need that with my filter to make decent money... Prob only 80% with Ryans Strat).
The biggest advice I can give anybody is to work with what makes you most comfortable... If trading live games works for you that's fine... If you can profit from pre game or in-play stats only that's fine... As long as you're comfortable and profitable stick with one style.
If your style isn't working for you it doesn't mean it will never work you just need to make some tweaks with you decision making and you will eventually nail it.
I trade a lot of Split Stakes because they work for me, I load them on my bot first thing in the morning after downloading and updating the previous days results and that's it... My day is done (unless I wish to do any manual trades such as SH or correct scores, but yet again they will be all based on pre match or in-play stats).
I've posted on here before about trading split stakes and how it isn't a sexy trade or return big wins... But... It returns consistent results and consistent green... Reminds me of the story about the Hare and the Tortoise lol.
-
@mark-maguire Great to see this
This is why BTC exists to be honest, because the old Betfair forum was a horrible place to be - I wanted something better.@Martin-Futter @Adam both embody everything that this community has grown into, as do all of you guys - I'll protect you guys always, this is a great place to be!
-
@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@darri Definitely. I think I’ve learnt as much in the last 2 months as any other period. Ok it may only be in the LCS market but that doesn’t matter, if I can hit 4-5pts a month consistently using 1pt liability then it’s not hard to nudge it up to 1.5, then 2 and so on
I thought I knew the market well enough, but when you focus solely on it then you REALLY start to get imaginative about what affects things and how you can test and overcome it
Might only be the LCS but I made the LTD work for me for years! I have spoken openly about the fact I used to trade horses, tennis & football then I looked through my results and saw that I could scale my stakes up and spend less time trading and would be more profitable and enjoy it more. I dropped the horses and was solely football and tennis.
In this sports it was very simple for me LTD on Football and finding value players in the first set of tennis that was it
It's pretty much been the same since!I've added a couple of extra football things, because I have a solid foundation.
-
@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
May I say something a bit "gushy" .. Ive been involved in football, and I've experienced forums for many years.. my experience of them has been that they've been the haven of some really good but equally some really poisonous people and as such I made it my mission not to join them.. my octogenarian mum even got abuse on forums when she was involved in selection of endurance horse riding teams.. true story.. but I am pleasantly blown away by the positive responses which are shared on here, and the generousness of the established members and pro traders .. I am blown away by it to be honest. Probably not even the right place for this post but had to be said.. anyway I'll shut up and carry on learning with the hope of progressing .Thanks all
Fantastic @Mark-Maguire!
We have no problem with people challenging others and such but there is a way to go about it.
Man I could talk for days about the poisonous people in this industry, I've never really understood that approach, in what workplace has it ever been beneficial?
A lot of people seem to harbour a lot of hate and resentment to things in this internet age, often with no clear reason for it.
That's why it was so important for us to create a place devoid of that, we actually want to work with people in a constructive useful manner!
-
@matthew-biggins said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@james-woodroffe If you ever need some info on Sheffield United I'm your man......
Seriously though, I agree with all of your post but as someone who has always been and probably will always be a fan of football first rather than a trader, one of the biggest battles for me has been taking the emotion out of football trading. I've had to make a definite effort to separate the football fan side of me and the football trader side of me.
Having said all that though, the way football is at the moment - and I'll not go into the why's and wherefore's - I really am losing a lot of interest in the game and the football I watch now is mainly for trading purposes alone which in some ways has actually improved my ability to read a game of football.
Taking emotion out is the hardest thing, an old story I have mentioned a few times is a stock trader who when he made £40k a day or if he lost £40k a day, you would not have known either way. To get to that mindset takes time and is the battle that too many traders never really think about, that's why we tend to bang on about it a lot on here. You almost want to be machine like in the way you operate!
-
@mark-maguire I think the main difference here is that everybody is fairly open and keen to help/offer advice.
With certain other communities it's all about people trying to protect their perceived edge by keeping things close to their chest. In the main that doesn't happen here, if somebody has something that works for them they are keen to share that knowledge with other members. Long may that continue! -
@mark-maguire that’s great to hear mate and a lot of guys who are new to BTC have said the same. I’m lucky this is the only place I’ve ever been a member of and as I’ve said before I still can’t speak highly enough of this place and the people who make it what it is.
-
May I say something a bit "gushy" .. Ive been involved in football, and I've experienced forums for many years.. my experience of them has been that they've been the haven of some really good but equally some really poisonous people and as such I made it my mission not to join them.. my octogenarian mum even got abuse on forums when she was involved in selection of endurance horse riding teams.. true story.. but I am pleasantly blown away by the positive responses which are shared on here, and the generousness of the established members and pro traders .. I am blown away by it to be honest. Probably not even the right place for this post but had to be said.. anyway I'll shut up and carry on learning with the hope of progressing .Thanks all
-
@james-woodroffe If you ever need some info on Sheffield United I'm your man......
Seriously though, I agree with all of your post but as someone who has always been and probably will always be a fan of football first rather than a trader, one of the biggest battles for me has been taking the emotion out of football trading. I've had to make a definite effort to separate the football fan side of me and the football trader side of me.
Having said all that though, the way football is at the moment - and I'll not go into the why's and wherefore's - I really am losing a lot of interest in the game and the football I watch now is mainly for trading purposes alone which in some ways has actually improved my ability to read a game of football.
