The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Fancy a FHG in Excelsior. Aim to get in around halfway through FH. Either back over 2.5 or take the plunge on over 0.5 FHG.
Played it safe. Backed over 2.5
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Fancy a FHG in Excelsior. Aim to get in around halfway through FH. Either back over 2.5 or take the plunge on over 0.5 FHG.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@nick-terracciano couldn't agree more, Im absolutely better off in other leagues.
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@darri Mentioned that exact game on my thread. The Fulham goal was coming and looking at the game objectively I should have backed my instincts.
Think if Spurs had have been a bit more adventurous on the counter attack it may have swayed my opinion, however.
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@nick-terracciano when you have a strong opinion on a league ie teams/players your judgement can become clouded. So example would be the spurs game the other day. Spurs 1-0 up and fulham looked likely to grab one back. Because we have the opinion spurs are the better team overall we might refrain from getting on that trade even tho our eyes are saying different. This is how the markets also react. And is why we can take advantage of the bias of opinions in the markets by beating them with pre match stats/inplay stats. Use them to form an opinion not your own if you get me.
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@ryan-carruthers not sure maybe my mind is clearer when just looking at pre match filters and IP stats, not knowing much about certain leagues takes out any bias I may have.
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@nick-terracciano I have a similar feeling sometimes, not in a negative way per se, just that I tend to second guess myself a lot.
Not sure why but more of a personal mindset thing for me
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@terry-cooke said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alastair-todd said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@terry-cooke Hi Terry, when you say “downloaded my stats”, what does that mean? I look at the match selections on the football stats page and then export them to give me a list of matches to consider but the only way I can explore the stats is to select each particular match on the software and have a look at those stats. Am I missing something? It wouldn’t be the first time!
Exactly that mate, I have a filter that I have built and it gives me the matches that I will potentially trade today. There isn't much more research needed by me, although I may end up doing a bit, because my trades are based on time decay.
Im no expert, but it goes back to what has to happen and for me there has to be no goals, so a slow start to a game is what I look for with my strategy. When you say Am im missing something it all (in my experience) depends on what your trading and what your own trading style is. What I do works for me but may not work for someone else and that goes back to what Ryan says about there not being much point in me showing live trades because we would all trade the game in a different way.
Hope that helped and that I didn't waffle too much
Great stuff Terry, thank you!
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Is there anybody that can help me set up an under 3.5 goals filter I’m really struggling?.
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@nick-terracciano Why do you think that is?
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Finding the worst league for me personally is the premier my trades seem allot better when I know less about the teams
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@alastair-todd said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@terry-cooke Hi Terry, when you say “downloaded my stats”, what does that mean? I look at the match selections on the football stats page and then export them to give me a list of matches to consider but the only way I can explore the stats is to select each particular match on the software and have a look at those stats. Am I missing something? It wouldn’t be the first time!
Exactly that mate, I have a filter that I have built and it gives me the matches that I will potentially trade today. There isn't much more research needed by me, although I may end up doing a bit, because my trades are based on time decay.
Im no expert, but it goes back to what has to happen and for me there has to be no goals, so a slow start to a game is what I look for with my strategy. When you say Am im missing something it all (in my experience) depends on what your trading and what your own trading style is. What I do works for me but may not work for someone else and that goes back to what Ryan says about there not being much point in me showing live trades because we would all trade the game in a different way.
Hope that helped and that I didn't waffle too much
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@terry-cooke yep the key to building discipline in trading when using a trading plan is to make sure you dont deviate. If you deviate then your going against the whole point of one. The need to see growth all the time is a hard thing to nudge when you first start because you come in thinking everyone else is growing all the time. Unless your scalping most strategies dont actually grow everyday so not trading certain days because games dont qualify is perfectly fine. Better to not have any than lose by trading games not on the plan. Essentially you just trading from your downloaded stats/filters is a trading plan.
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@terry-cooke Hi Terry, when you say “downloaded my stats”, what does that mean? I look at the match selections on the football stats page and then export them to give me a list of matches to consider but the only way I can explore the stats is to select each particular match on the software and have a look at those stats. Am I missing something? It wouldn’t be the first time!
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alastair-todd really good idea from matthew about just turning it off and force yourself to go do something completely different keeps a healthy mindset. FOMO comes in a few forms. A trick i did when i first joined btc was following @Ryan-Carruthers day in the life videos. I used to write a plan. In the plan i marked all the games im interested in from the filters, id then do a bit extra research (optional) and get rid of games i didnt fancy. What id then do was write down what i wanted to be happening in the game for me to enter. For me that includes scorelines, key players and inplay stats/momentum. If all those worked then it became a game for me to watch or potentially enter. Then last but the biggest was write down a price i was wanting to take. My pre match perceived value price. Id then make sure all of that lines up and trade it. For me i always think of trading football as finding reasons not to trade a game. If i dont find a reason then id place that trade. Im much less strict with writing it down everyday nowadays as i know what im looking for but its a good routine while your learning. Builds discipline.
@Alastair-Todd I was forever creating a trading plan that was too big and then if the games weren't turning out how I hope I was just looking through the market and jumping on anything that looked good. Big mistake and also took loads of time!!! now I get up in the morning look at this wonderful safe haven of a forum, download my stats for the day and then look to do my trades as and when they pop up. What I have found is that I'm not spending as much time in front of the computer, I know when I'm trading and I now have the discipline to just not even look at any other game. I think this month has been my most profitable, although I have done a little matched betting too but from the beginning of the month I'm up 24 pts on what my starting back was (if I've done the maths right).
Love this place!!
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Posted 4 potentials for tomorrow evening on my thread. Will update how I intend to play them nearer the time.
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@darri Thanks mate, that's great advice as usual. I just need to concentrate a bit more on what I'm doing, research it a bit more carefully, and not just launch in to the trade. I think the problem is the drive to build the bank quickly - all that happens is that you reduce the bank quickly!
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@alastair-todd really good idea from matthew about just turning it off and force yourself to go do something completely different keeps a healthy mindset. FOMO comes in a few forms. A trick i did when i first joined btc was following @Ryan-Carruthers day in the life videos. I used to write a plan. In the plan i marked all the games im interested in from the filters, id then do a bit extra research (optional) and get rid of games i didnt fancy. What id then do was write down what i wanted to be happening in the game for me to enter. For me that includes scorelines, key players and inplay stats/momentum. If all those worked then it became a game for me to watch or potentially enter. Then last but the biggest was write down a price i was wanting to take. My pre match perceived value price. Id then make sure all of that lines up and trade it. For me i always think of trading football as finding reasons not to trade a game. If i dont find a reason then id place that trade. Im much less strict with writing it down everyday nowadays as i know what im looking for but its a good routine while your learning. Builds discipline.
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@matthew-biggins said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alastair-todd I sometimes find nights like tonight harder to manage than games where there’s loads on.
For example I had 2 to pick from tonight but neither qualified for a trade in my eyes, same as yesterday I had 3, turned one down that I could have entered an a no go on the other two.
I haven’t entered a trade since Tuesday and sometimes the longer it goes without one the harder it is to sit on your hands. If I ever feel like I’m bored or losing interest I just call it a day, even if I’ve got potentials or even if it’s in a game I’m supposed to be watching. Usually happens to me Saturday/Sunday evening if I’ve done a bit during the day.
I know that exact feeling though you’ve had tonight of itching to get into something. I had a passing thought about entering that very same game and just straight got up and in the shower (not just for something to do btw I was planning on it anyway) but it completely took me away from the situation.
Good drills Matthew, I just need to know when to sit the match out and do something else!
