The BTC Football Trading Thread

bottlabroon

@alan-steward
If it helps any HT odds for 2 x SH goals are approximately 0.20 above the SP over 2.5.

So...
1.60 SP for over 2.5 would be approx 1.80 HT
1.70 SP for over 2.5 would be approx 1.90 HT
1.80 SP for over 2.5 would be approx 2.00 HT

I know you're expreienced enough to know these can only ever be averages, away teams leading, favourites losing etc will all impact them

bottlabroon

@alan-steward
1.90 @ HT
2.90 @ 57mins
3.90 @ 62mins
4.90 @ 67mins

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@bottlabroon nice one mate... So roughly speaking at what times in the game is plus 2 goals plus 1 decimal place in odds from HT

Take for example plus 2 goal odds being 1.9 at HT

HT 1.9 = 45mins
2.9 = ?mins
3.9 = ?mins
4.9 = ?mins

bottlabroon

@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@finn-kristensen Yes... Am thinking drip staking is the answer to SHG trading.

I understand your dilemma re missing out on the early goal with drip stakes but dripping stakes is exactly where the value should be.

I need to asses odds movement for the SHG markets I need to check the average plus 2 goal market prices for the following points;

Back prices

45mins 1.9
60mins ?
75mins ?
85mins ?

Feel free to fill in the blanks guys

60mins = 3.46
75mins = 6.20
85mins = 42.00

Approximates but obviously depends on current score and if home/favourites losing etc.

Ryan

Not drip backing but drip laying that I have shared before in here might help some.... 15 tick Drip lays

15 Tick Drip Lays Based On Ryans Original HT LCS Drips
All £25 Liability

RYANS DRIP LCS
STARTS @4.5LAY- Avg odds 2.8

£2.86 @ 4.5 (15 ticks to next match) £10 LIABILITY
£1 @ 3.5 (15 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£1.32 @2.9 (15 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£1.56 @2.6 (15 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£1.92 @2.3 (14 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£2.46 @2.02 (16 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£2.94 @1.85 (No more to match) £2.50 LIABILITY

Total Stake = £13.60
Total Liability = £25
Avg odds 2.8

VERSION TWO
STARTS @ 3.5 LAY- Avg odds 2.41

£4 @ 3.5 (15 ticks to next match) £10 LIABILITY
£1.32 @2.9 (15 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£1.56 @2.6 (15 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£1.92 @2.3 (14 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£2.46 @2.02 (16 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£2.94 @1.85 (15 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£3.58 @1.7 (15 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY

Total Stake = £17.78
Total Liability = £25
Avg odds 2.41

VERSION THREE
STARTS @ 2.9 LAY- Avg odds 2.13

£5.26 @2.9 (15 ticks to next match) £10 LIABILITY
£1.56 @2.6 (15 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£1.92 @2.3 (14 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£2.46 @2.02 (16 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£2.94 @1.85 (15 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£3.58 @1.7 (15 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£4.55 @1.55 (15 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY

Total Stake = £22.27
Total Liability = £25
Avg odds 2.13

VERSION FOUR
STARTS @ 2.6 LAY- Avg odds 1.91

£6.25 @2.6 (15 ticks to next match) £10 LIABILITY
£1.92 @2.3 (14 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£2.46 @2.02 (16 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£2.94 @1.85 (15 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£3.58 @1.7 (15 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£4.55 @1.55 (15 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£6.27 @1.4 (15 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY

Total Stake = £27.97
Total Liability = £25
Avg odds 1.91

VERSION FIVE
STARTS @ 2.3 LAY- Avg odds 1.72

£7.70 @2.3 (14 ticks to next match) £10 LIABILITY
£2.46 @2.02 (16 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£2.94 @1.85 (15 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£3.58 @1.7 (15 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£4.55 @1.55 (15 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£6.27 @1.4 (15 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£10 @1.25 (15 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY

Total Stake = £37.50
Total Liability = £25
Avg odds 1.72

VERSION SIX
STARTS @ 2.02 LAY- Avg odds 1.55

£9.81 @2.02 (16 ticks to next match) £10 LIABILITY
£2.94 @1.85 (15 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£3.58 @1.7 (15 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£4.55 @1.55 (15 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£6.27 @1.4 (15 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£10 @1.25 (15 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY
£25.10 @1.10 (15 ticks to next match) £2.50 LIABILITY

Total Stake = £62.25
Total Liability = £25
Avg odds 1.55

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@lee-woodman I have data from beginning of August... Will look to add it to my signature when I've finished updating yesterdays results, will PM you when uploaded :thumbs_up:

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@finn-kristensen Yes... Am thinking drip staking is the answer to SHG trading.

I understand your dilemma re missing out on the early goal with drip stakes but dripping stakes is exactly where the value should be.

I need to asses odds movement for the SHG markets I need to check the average plus 2 goal market prices for the following points;

Back prices

45mins 1.9
60mins ?
75mins ?
85mins ?

Feel free to fill in the blanks guys

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Ive started collecting the raw data for Garys filter. I dont have enough data yet to analyse and possibly refine it (if anyone has the raw data to share i am happy to trawl through for patterns - and obviously share anything i find)

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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

PM but you may have missed it

My apologies, i saw it on my mobile but couldnt reply straight away. I intended to reply when i got home but completely slipped my mind

Im not a UFT member. Im not even trading my split stake currently, im just collating data for once i have my LCS stuff refined and settled. It has a good SR but just considering different approaches is at the back of my mind

Finn Kristensen

@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@finn-kristensen Actually I remember Garys SHG filter having bit of a tough time trough Xmas week and my downloaded data shows -8.35pts from 26th Dec to and including 17th Jan.

I always refer to my downloaded data mainly because it's odds based and selections can change during the day etc. However I've always treated it as "How it is downloaded first thing in the morning" and that is what my results are based on

Yes, I was following it for a long while (paper trading only), and while it did OK, December seemed to be negative and so I wondered if there could be an alternative way to optimize it, given that the strike rate is very good. Drip-laying could be one way, but then you lose out on the quick goal.

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@finn-kristensen Actually I remember Garys SHG filter having bit of a tough time trough Xmas week and my downloaded data shows -8.35pts from 26th Dec to and including 17th Jan.

I always refer to my downloaded data mainly because it's odds based and selections can change during the day etc. However I've always treated it as "How it is downloaded first thing in the morning" and that is what my results are based on

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@finn-kristensen I haven't for a while mate but was LCS on 60mins... However being a trader rather than a punter it didn't really sit comfortable with me... Although right off the bat my downloaded data is showing conversion rates of 78% with a goal post 59mins Betfair time which is profitable... However, I am now tasking myself with coming up with a different method of trading SHG's and will be doing lots of back testing over next couple of weeks... Will pay serious attention to Fireball reloaded because that used to return decent profits... So maybe it's back to basics???

Next couple of weeks measuring saved data should give me solid results

Finn Kristensen

@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@lee-woodman The main reason I posted my trades here over past couple of days was in response to many people struggling over weekends and I was scratch across 2 of the busiest days. For me consistent trading doing consistent things will get results and I was just trying to show my way of trading which I know isn't everybody's cup of tea... I'm well happy with my weekends results... Still feel Garys SHG filter takes some beating and I've picked some battles with it to try and prove it wrong, but keep losing them lol.

I play a numbers game and it works for me with profit generated month in month out... I don't need or wish to watch live games and I don't care which way the wind is blowing on match day, who the ref is or if the top scorer is playing... I play my filters and over time they worked... Period!

Are you a UFT member?

How do you play Gary's SHG filter, Alan?

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@lee-woodman The main reason I posted my trades here over past couple of days was in response to many people struggling over weekends and I was scratch across 2 of the busiest days. For me consistent trading doing consistent things will get results and I was just trying to show my way of trading which I know isn't everybody's cup of tea... I'm well happy with my weekends results... Still feel Garys SHG filter takes some beating and I've picked some battles with it to try and prove it wrong, but keep losing them lol.

I play a numbers game and it works for me with profit generated month in month out... I don't need or wish to watch live games and I don't care which way the wind is blowing on match day, who the ref is or if the top scorer is playing... I play my filters and over time they worked... Period!

Are you a UFT member?

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@lee-woodman Yeah just seemed one of those days... And of course it happens we're traders not matched bettors.

Fireball mate with entry on 10mins

I replied to your PM but you may have missed it :thumbs_up:

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@alan-steward I had a few 'iffy' results yesterday aswell but as you know days like that just seem to happen!

How do you trade the split stakes?

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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Balance of todays Split Stakes loaded on the bot... All set & forget

Todays SHG watch is Liverpool

Got it wrong yesterday by saying to Lay plus 2 goals but trade is as follows

Back Plus 2 goals @ HT for 50% stake
Back Plus 2 goals on 55/58mins or plus 1 decimal place to above odds

Remove green on first goal (wait 2/3mins if goal is scored pre 60mins)

Take red circa 80mins or if back price on o0.5 goals equals your average stake on above 2 stakes take red

Another red on the bot today which although isn't unheard of 2 or 3 reds can come in mini clusters so 0.1pts red today (after green from Porto B team which I didn't manage to load on my bot in time) and although the FH in-play stats with Liverpool were shocking I felt it was worth laying u0.5 goals for 0.5pts unfortunately it wasn't to be so 0.6pts red today, as follows...

o1.5 Split Stake on Bot = -0.1pts
SHG Liverpool layed u0.5 goals @ 1.98 = -0.5pts

Should be a decent run on the Split Stake filter to follow ... Looking back at results on some of my filters it seemed an odd day for results, or maybe it was just my filters

Mark Maguire

@Martin-Futter yes they've stopped going back to the keeper as much now which means they are holding a higher line and midfield is getting more congested

Martin

@mark-maguire inter definitely prefer playing on the break, a bit like Utd at the moment. Goals are there for them not sure how much they want one

Mark Maguire

@Martin-Futter Its an interesting one re Pirlo .. read an interesting piece on him last week, he seems very idealistic tactically and its either brilliant or awful .. he is big big friends with the Chairman which will help him but up until last three results pressure had to be building