The BTC Football Trading Thread
-
-
Lol and theres the 3rd...
-
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
You couldn’t trade that Arsenal v Newcastle match if you were watching it. It’s horrendous. Two terrible teams. Will probably be a 4 goal thriller in the second half now!
You jinxed it in a good way, thanks haha!
You’re welcome!!
-
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
You couldn’t trade that Arsenal v Newcastle match if you were watching it. It’s horrendous. Two terrible teams. Will probably be a 4 goal thriller in the second half now!
You jinxed it in a good way, thanks haha!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
You couldn’t trade that Arsenal v Newcastle match if you were watching it. It’s horrendous. Two terrible teams. Will probably be a 4 goal thriller in the second half now!
-
@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman I have data from beginning of August... Will look to add it to my signature when I've finished updating yesterdays results, will PM you when uploaded :thumbs_up:
Thatd be great. I found with my own filter that certain scorelines were better so it helped me spot a very clear improvement
-
@bottlabroon No probs mate... at the end of the day the market get it right more often than not... I often see o2.5 odds circa 1.7/1.8 on a strongly fancied 3 goal game... I know you like your correct score trades as well so will be interesting to see what your thought process is
-
@alan-steward Interesting question Alan, I've never really thought about it that way.....
If we take the Hamburger game as an example, the market thinks there is around 37% chance (so around 2.70 odds combined) of a 3 goal scoreline with over 2.5 around 1.70. So it's around 1.00 odds more than the chance of over that score. Don't really know how consistent that would be though.
It's more problematic with a 4 goal dutch because 4-0/0-4 isn't covered in the CS market it's an any other scoreline.
I'll need to give that one a bit more thought
-
@bottlabroon Lol... It's not you mate it's me so yeah implied probability of a 3 goal dutch what would we expect to see on o2.5 goals & a 4 goal dutch what would we expect to see for o3.5 goals... Yes I know its a yard stick but be nice to know roughly where the market expects it to be???
-
@alan-steward
Sorry mate, I think the penny has dropped finally
Are you talking about the implied probabilty of EXACTLY 3 goals as opposed to 3 or more?
-
@alan-steward
Still not really getting it mate. If the odds are 1.69 then the markets think there is a 59.2% chance of going over 2.5.
Anything where the overs is favourite the markets expects it to one degree or another. With the overs at 1.95 the market till expects over 2.5 albeit only a 51.3% chance.
-
@bottlabroon Okay take Hamburger v Osnabruck game... I fancy a 3 goal dutch there and o2.5 odds are 1.69... Am I right in assuming if Betfair expect 3 goals these odds would be circa 1.7/1.8?
-
@alan-steward
Not sure what you mean mate? The over 2.5 market is bloody efficient at SP.If we assume a price of say 2.00 at over 2.5 SP then I'd expect the markets prices on the other goals markets to be around:
Over 1.5 @ 1.34
Over 3.5 @ 3.50
Over 4.5 @ 7.40With them roughly adjusted up or down according to 2.5 price, so if the 2.5 price was only 1.70 then knock around 0.30 off them all. It doesn't follow an exact pattern though, a league Bundesliga or Netherlands match the 3.5 and 4.5 prices will often be a lot shorter.
Sorry if I'm misunderstanding.
-
@bottlabroon At what point do you feel Betfair have it right for the goals market mate... Say for example I'm doing a correct score trade 3 goal or 4 goal if Betfair expect 3 goals or 4 goals where would they price it?... Ie what is it considered to be their neutral points
-
@finn-kristensen
I haven't used it extensively, I just spent an afternoon (maybe a day) with it running various scenarios to come up with a formula that I could put into a table in Excel for over/under price analysis at various price points and scores.My figures/table has all been compiled using a base price of 2.00 for over 2.5 and adjusted from there so the further from that you get the less accurate it will become. A match that's 1.80 -2.20 for 2.5 goals is likely to much more accurate in my forecasting table than one that's 1.30 or 3.00.
-
@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@bottlabroon never used that bit of Bet Angel... Try not to get too deep as I feel you can get paralysis of analysis... Am finding many aspects of the football slightly unpredictable right now other than 1 goal between 10 & 75 mins happens 91% of the time on my filter so am just sticking to Split stakes.
I am wanting to evaluate and back test SHG with Split stakes as it greatly reduces liability and can very easily be automated
The Soccer Mystic feature is actually pretty useful - I used it a bit when I used Bet Angel.
-
@bottlabroon never used that bit of Bet Angel... Try not to get too deep as I feel you can get paralysis of analysis... Am finding many aspects of the football slightly unpredictable right now other than 1 goal between 10 & 75 mins happens 91% of the time on my filter so am just sticking to Split stakes.
I am wanting to evaluate and back test SHG with Split stakes as it greatly reduces liability and can very easily be automated
-
@alan-steward
It was basically compiled from spending a few hours with Soccer Mystic on Betangel so if it's way off blame Peter Webb
-
@bottlabroon massive thanks... Didnt quite know exactly how plus 2 goals moved ie plus .2 (Roughly speaking) I know the odds follow the goals market as goals are scored such as o1.5 being 2.1 would be the odds for o2.5 soon as a goal is scored (obviously allowing for the market to settle and short time decay)
Will back test on that principle and yes I fully understand different factors control the odds depending on goal expectancy etc
-
@alan-steward
So VERY APPROXIMATELY based on SP for over 2.5 goals.......
2 x SH Goals
HT + 0.20
50 mins + 0.56
55 mins + 1.04
60 mins + 1.76
65 mins + 2.86
70 mins +4.68
75 mins + 8.10
80 mins + 15.80
85 mins + 41.20
