The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@Ben-Dobie thats brilliant mate keep doing what you’re doing.
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@eamonn-hogan have a look at the results spreadsheet @martin-futter posts with the selections
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@ben-dobie said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman @Ryan-Carruthers Thanks gents you’re just backing up my plan to go with the stats approach for now. I’ve just been through my filter which started in August and broke it down into each month, it’s been profitable for 6 months solid on 70+ with a min of 10% ROI each months. Had I started with 2% stakes and compounded each month since I’d be looking at going into next month with a very healthy bank and close to full time stakes. So I know what to do for the next 6 months don’t I, stick to the plan and take bad days on the chin knowing it’ll come round to where it should be by the end of the month. Cheers for the feedback it works wonders
That's excellent, Ben! Keep it up and who knows, maybe within the foreseeable future you could have a serious option to go full time.
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@ben-dobie said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman wow 4 kids between ages 6 and 10 and I’m whining about trying to keep one entertained (which I love doing btw).....I tip my hat to you mate you must be a lot busier than me ha ha
Yes mate, very busy! That’s one of the reasons I get up at 5am to do what I need to. Not only do I get peace doing it but it doesn’t encroach too much on my time with the kids and family
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Is there anyway of seeing what the strike rate is for all the profitable members filters? curious to see them
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Presume this might have been covered before, but has anyone had any success trading cup games at all? Generally I avoid them due to the unpredictability and the unique variables but that also makes me think there must be an edge in there somewhere.
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@ben-dobie yeah life gets in the way. I presume at some point in the future I will have to change to a more stats based approach or even something that's more towards a set and forget approach. Lockdown has meant I've had more time to sit and trade based on live pictures etc.
The good thing is it really is possible to tailor your own trading plan to your personal circumstances which is one thing I really like about it.
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@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@ben-dobie Good luck! Sounds like we’re in very much the same position and just needed the confidence to say ‘yes this can work this way’ and then go out and execute it day after day, month after month. We’ve done lots of data collecting, probably gone back and forward a little, learnt a tonne of information but now it’s time to turn it into real profit and compound the growth
This, more than anything, is the key. Knowing that your system/strategy "works" and being able to accept the downturns.
Probably the only advice I can give anyone is test up to 1,000 results and if it's significant, use it. If not, ditch it.
I don't see anything wrong with testing several strategies at once as long as it doesn't take up too much time.As I've said a bit recently I'm using one filter and picking it apart bit by bit to see where the edges lie. It's a slow process and you think something is where it should be, it shifts and shows you something else. I know you need large amounts of data but when data is small initially and at least follows logic it does give you something to get your teeth into.
For now my papertrading plan on my thread is seeing the swings but hopefully in the end it will level out and leave me with something solid.
But as I also posted on there this morning, it's not just about having a good filter but about being able to read and interpret the data it throws up. I'm convinced the filter while basic can give me what I want but I just need to be able to read what it's showing me on a daily basis and make rational sensible decisions from that.
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@matthew-biggins I don’t disagree with you mate tbh and wish I had time to do it that way but circumstances dictate I have to go the stats way for now, happy with the sample I have to know it can be profitable until I get to a stage where I can spend the time analysing each game in detail and spend more time watching.
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@ben-dobie Good luck! Sounds like we’re in very much the same position and just needed the confidence to say ‘yes this can work this way’ and then go out and execute it day after day, month after month. We’ve done lots of data collecting, probably gone back and forward a little, learnt a tonne of information but now it’s time to turn it into real profit and compound the growth
This, more than anything, is the key. Knowing that your system/strategy "works" and being able to accept the downturns.
Probably the only advice I can give anyone is test up to 1,000 results and if it's significant, use it. If not, ditch it.
I don't see anything wrong with testing several strategies at once as long as it doesn't take up too much time. -
Thanks all for the posts you have made yesterday and this morning , just what i needed. I don't think i was in the right frame of mind yesterday and shouldn't have traded. I feel better today and going out for a walk now before the snow sets in and will just trade my late goal filter and paper trade the other strategies.
Too many strategies without proof they are profitable long term i will never get anywhere. So i can spend the rest of the time recording results on other systems (paper trading) , i may then find another system that will be profitable at certain entry points and scores etc but can monitor that as i go along.
Thanks all for your replies and advice. -
Weirdly, I think I take the opposite of the stats approach to my late goal trading. For me I'm only looking for one goal which can come at any time. I place a lot of emphasis on the intention to score, I could have all the stats in the world pointing towards a late goal, but if I'm not seeing it on the pitch then it's a no trade for me.
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@lee-woodman wow 4 kids between ages 6 and 10 and I’m whining about trying to keep one entertained (which I love doing btw).....I tip my hat to you mate you must be a lot busier than me ha ha
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@eamonn-hogan cheers mate appreciate it
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@ben-dobie that’s a start mate. Having confidence in the strategy long term is what it’s all about. Best of luck
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@lee-woodman cheers mate, you’re spot on. Good luck too, let’s hope by July we’ve got to where we intend to be by doing just that
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@eamonn-hogan cheers mate just wish I was talking actual rather than theoretical but at least I know it works and I now know what I have to do
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@ben-dobie Good luck! Sounds like we’re in very much the same position and just needed the confidence to say ‘yes this can work this way’ and then go out and execute it day after day, month after month. We’ve done lots of data collecting, probably gone back and forward a little, learnt a tonne of information but now it’s time to turn it into real profit and compound the growth
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Well done mate
@ben-dobie said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:@lee-woodman @Ryan-Carruthers Thanks gents you’re just backing up my plan to go with the stats approach for now. I’ve just been through my filter which started in August and broke it down into each month, it’s been profitable for 6 months solid on 70+ with a min of 10% ROI each months. Had I started with 2% stakes and compounded each month since I’d be looking at going into next month with a very healthy bank and close to full time stakes. So I know what to do for the next 6 months don’t I, stick to the plan and take bad days on the chin knowing it’ll come round to where it should be by the end of the month. Cheers for the feedback it works wonders
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@lee-woodman @Ryan-Carruthers Thanks gents you’re just backing up my plan to go with the stats approach for now. I’ve just been through my filter which started in August and broke it down into each month, it’s been profitable for 6 months solid on 70+ with a min of 10% ROI each months. Had I started with 2% stakes and compounded each month since I’d be looking at going into next month with a very healthy bank and close to full time stakes. So I know what to do for the next 6 months don’t I, stick to the plan and take bad days on the chin knowing it’ll come round to where it should be by the end of the month. Cheers for the feedback it works wonders
