The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@ryan-carruthers Exactly mate... I just replied to somebodies PM and I will add it here for reference;
"You're welcome... I have found so many inconsistencies at the mo and I'm sure you have as well, at the end of the day the split stake o1.5 goal trade req's just 1 goal within a time frame it doesn't need come back values or to worry about which venue a game is played at... Just 1 goal within a certain time frame and that's it... Not many teams will go out on the pitch and not want to win or score 1 goal!!!"
Guys, I'm not saying you have to or need to go down the Split Stake route I just wish you success that's all and in whatever form it comes in but please read, read & re read the simplicity of my post here
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@catalin-radu The Fireball strategy is a paid product from another platform but at the end of the day it's just a Split Stake on the o1.5 goal market... Any Split Stake can work Ryan's is just as effective, I've even added hundreds of hours work to his excellent strategy within my signature.
In terms of bot... I would recommend you take the extra time to make a specific strategy work profitably in manual mode before going down the automation route... What I do is so simple there's nothing really to teach... You can learn it in 5mins (maybe figure of speech)... The real lesson to learn is within the 6 inches between your ears... Master that and you'll master trading
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@ryan-carruthers Exactly mate... I just replied to somebodies PM and I will add it here for reference;
"You're welcome... I have found so many inconsistencies at the mo and I'm sure you have as well, at the end of the day the split stake o1.5 goal trade req's just 1 goal within a time frame it doesn't need come back values or to worry about which venue a game is played at... Just 1 goal within a certain time frame and that's it... Not many teams will go out on the pitch and not want to win or score 1 goal!!!"
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@alan-steward Cracking post here, the word simplicity works for me as well!
I mean I was an LTD trader for years on the football, so many told me it wouldn't work long term - until the rules of football change it will work in my eyes.
Same with spit stake
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@alan-steward hi, what program you use for bot? And what is the fireball strategy?
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Hi all, I've been reading some posts about those struggling to get strategies working or how they can improve their match reading skills... I've mention more than once that currently my preferred trade is the split stake and I've often stated how unsexy it can be... But it works.
So why can I be so happy trading the split stake...
I have purchased a number of trading programs from UFT to Goal Machine and they can all work but here's what I've discovered in around 3/4 years of trading...
Some take more time to implement than others!!!
Yes you can watch live games and I've nothing against that, if it works for you then great. You can watch live stats of a game (or for that matter many games @ once therefore maximising time)... Or you can trade from pre match stats and it is what it is.
But after learning many trades and learning (or not learning ie live match reading skills) I have found one simple but consistent trade.
The Split Stake!
It comes in many forms and I personally trade the Fireball method but they all work and the only thing I can put this down to at this moment in time is this... The simplicity of the trade within inconsistent footballing times.
I set my bot up in the morning and that's it... Most of the time it makes profit each day and some days it will finish red... But month in moth out it returns profit.
Smaller stakes than some win but it reminds me of the story of the Hare & the Tortoise... Of course that's just a story but it's currently working out that way for me and I trade from successful filters that I have produced from here within BTC.
The Stats software works for me, will it work for you I don't know... Mostly because I can't control your temperament, bank management and a list of other things that help you become successful with trading.
There is no need to PM me as I don't do private coaching you have your own Private Coaching channels available to you here within BTC with either Ryan or Martin... In terms of what I have to give to you is hundreds of hours work within my signature which holds data to 2 successful filters available to all members of BTC... All you have to decide is how or if you wish to trade them.
At the end of the day Football Trading can work but with the inconsistency of todays football in these unprecedented times there is and never will be a quick path to success... Reading and learning from posts like these can help speed up your learning process... But ultimately your success is down to you.
Enjoy your trading!
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@stuart-capstick Im planning on pulling in the ELO ratings to check this point out. To be honest though, there arent actually that many results of this situation and as its a situation which can be explained then im happy to cut them out and put it down as a no-trade
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman Its about 57 for both, that is before weeding out the weaker leagues. Also I think I might record my goals in a slightly different way to yours resulting in fractionally lower sr%
Id take a guess that would be a little too low. I would look to try and get this above 65%.
Things that worked for me:
- Going through and seperating out poorer leagues. I didnt do it based on performance but based on leagues which i dont think would be quality (israel, belarus etc)
- Check entry scores. Certain scores and scenarios are better than others and likely be different for each filter. For me a HT score of either 1-0 or 0-1 and then the same score at 70' saw a huge drop off - likely it indicates a tighter game and the strong team holding out for the result
- Check if additional criteria can affect things. There may be a slight hole in the filter and adding a criteria (or tightening an existing one) can sometimes improve things. I always record extra criteria for each filter (set to >= 0) so i can check it later. It takes nothing to record it so i may aswell
If you need any further specific info just give me a shout or drop me a message
I'm finding the exact same thing with the 1-0 scoreline in particular but on some leagues it's good. Have you noticed a difference or do you think it's all likely to balance out in the end?
There arent enough results to filter down to individual scores in individual leagues.....the sample of each data set would be really low
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman Its about 57 for both, that is before weeding out the weaker leagues. Also I think I might record my goals in a slightly different way to yours resulting in fractionally lower sr%
Id take a guess that would be a little too low. I would look to try and get this above 65%.
Things that worked for me:
- Going through and seperating out poorer leagues. I didnt do it based on performance but based on leagues which i dont think would be quality (israel, belarus etc)
- Check entry scores. Certain scores and scenarios are better than others and likely be different for each filter. For me a HT score of either 1-0 or 0-1 and then the same score at 70' saw a huge drop off - likely it indicates a tighter game and the strong team holding out for the result
- Check if additional criteria can affect things. There may be a slight hole in the filter and adding a criteria (or tightening an existing one) can sometimes improve things. I always record extra criteria for each filter (set to >= 0) so i can check it later. It takes nothing to record it so i may aswell
If you need any further specific info just give me a shout or drop me a message
I'm finding the exact same thing with the 1-0 scoreline in particular but on some leagues it's good. Have you noticed a difference or do you think it's all likely to balance out in the end?
@Lee-woodman @Matt-Wood @Richard-Latimer
Just an idea, but it may depend on who is leading 1-0 or 0-1. If the underdog is leading, you may get more goals after 70 when the favourite is pushing to equalise or leaving themselves open to a second.
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman Its about 57 for both, that is before weeding out the weaker leagues. Also I think I might record my goals in a slightly different way to yours resulting in fractionally lower sr%
Id take a guess that would be a little too low. I would look to try and get this above 65%.
Things that worked for me:
- Going through and seperating out poorer leagues. I didnt do it based on performance but based on leagues which i dont think would be quality (israel, belarus etc)
- Check entry scores. Certain scores and scenarios are better than others and likely be different for each filter. For me a HT score of either 1-0 or 0-1 and then the same score at 70' saw a huge drop off - likely it indicates a tighter game and the strong team holding out for the result
- Check if additional criteria can affect things. There may be a slight hole in the filter and adding a criteria (or tightening an existing one) can sometimes improve things. I always record extra criteria for each filter (set to >= 0) so i can check it later. It takes nothing to record it so i may aswell
If you need any further specific info just give me a shout or drop me a message
I'm finding the exact same thing with the 1-0 scoreline in particular but on some leagues it's good. Have you noticed a difference or do you think it's all likely to balance out in the end?
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@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman Its about 57 for both, that is before weeding out the weaker leagues. Also I think I might record my goals in a slightly different way to yours resulting in fractionally lower sr%
Id take a guess that would be a little too low. I would look to try and get this above 65%.
Things that worked for me:
- Going through and seperating out poorer leagues. I didnt do it based on performance but based on leagues which i dont think would be quality (israel, belarus etc)
- Check entry scores. Certain scores and scenarios are better than others and likely be different for each filter. For me a HT score of either 1-0 or 0-1 and then the same score at 70' saw a huge drop off - likely it indicates a tighter game and the strong team holding out for the result
- Check if additional criteria can affect things. There may be a slight hole in the filter and adding a criteria (or tightening an existing one) can sometimes improve things. I always record extra criteria for each filter (set to >= 0) so i can check it later. It takes nothing to record it so i may aswell
If you need any further specific info just give me a shout or drop me a message
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@finn-kristensen thanks Finn, just wish I had been trading them like that since August but now I have something to follow and can have a bit to f faith in it
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@james-woodroffe thanks mate hope the filter carries on producing results like that moving forward and I might finally start making some money regularly
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@matt-wood sorry mate been off line all day since earlier. I work on average odds mate, around 1.8 to back this takes into account that some are as low as 1.7 some can be sometimes over 2 (Spain and others)
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@lee-woodman dedication mate, I have a bit of a lie in and go for about 6:15am but it does set you up nicely the early start
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@matt-wood my guess would be that its hovering around break even.
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@lee-woodman Its about 57 for both, that is before weeding out the weaker leagues. Also I think I might record my goals in a slightly different way to yours resulting in fractionally lower sr%
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@matt-wood If you can’t get the odds then at least determining the SR will give you an idea if you are onto something. Obviously the next step would be to record odds but a decent SR is a good first step. What is it running at for 70+?
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Anyone notice the stats for juventus snd napoli are never working
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@ben-dobie said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman @Ryan-Carruthers Thanks gents you’re just backing up my plan to go with the stats approach for now. I’ve just been through my filter which started in August and broke it down into each month, it’s been profitable for 6 months solid on 70+ with a min of 10% ROI each months. Had I started with 2% stakes and compounded each month since I’d be looking at going into next month with a very healthy bank and close to full time stakes. So I know what to do for the next 6 months don’t I, stick to the plan and take bad days on the chin knowing it’ll come round to where it should be by the end of the month. Cheers for the feedback it works wonders
Excellent stuff Ben!
Have you been recording the odds at time of entry with this (odds of next goal at 70?) I only ask as Im doubting my ability to play the late goals game but my filters seem pretty good so was going to try breaking it down by month like you have and see what comes out. How did you determine if it was profitable?
