The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I am actually enjoying this deadline day!
Any major transfers happening?
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The results for 0-0 show the same pattern.
All matches:
Only leagues active in Jan 2021 included:
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@richard-latimer Good question, so I just did an analysis for the same period last year, i.e. Sept 2019 - Jan 2020.
These are the results (all leagues):
Corresponding results for the leagues where we only use leagues with matches played in Jan 2021:
The results are very similar to what we find this year, so it seems that more than anything, it's the weather or period in itself which matters and not anything extra ordinary this year.
I should probably check if it continues in February to give us an idea of what to expect.
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When I was a member of another site they always said February was a bad/poor month for trading
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@stuart-capstick I removed all the Nordic countries + Japan.
Doesn't really change any conclusions, although the avg number of goals in the first months dropped a little:
How does it relate to the same time last year? Could it be seasonal weather playing a part as well. Maybe it's not just one thing but an amalgamation of everything, fixtures, crowds, weather
Yes I’m interested to see this too. If it happens every year it’s one thing, if not then it’s something else
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@stuart-capstick Hi Stuart
I made an analysis containing only the leagues which have had matches played in January this year.
This is what I get (0-0 matches vs all matches):
The number of matches included per month is:
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@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@stuart-capstick I removed all the Nordic countries + Japan.
Doesn't really change any conclusions, although the avg number of goals in the first months dropped a little:How does it relate to the same time last year? Could it be seasonal weather playing a part as well. Maybe it's not just one thing but an amalgamation of everything, fixtures, crowds, weather
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Finn- can you see what happens to the 0-0 percentages if you remove the Summer leagues?
I think the 0-0s are having more of an effect than the number of goals per game.
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@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
That's a large increase in 0-0s from Nov to Dec!
The fall in the number of goals can in part be explained by the Summer leagues finishing in Dec (I think Japan and the Nordic countries finished in Dec).
Would maybe suggest too many matches in a short period of time, injuries, squad rotation etc; rather than a lack of crowds?
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@stuart-capstick I removed all the Nordic countries + Japan.
Doesn't really change any conclusions, although the avg number of goals in the first months dropped a little: -
That's a large increase in 0-0s from Nov to Dec!
The fall in the number of goals can in part be explained by the Summer leagues finishing in Dec (I think Japan and the Nordic countries finished in Dec).
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@stuart-capstick Hi Stuart
I made a quick analysis to check if your assumption is true or false.
The average number of goals for most major and lower leagues throughout Europe, most of the Americas + Japan, China, Singapore & South Africa for the period September 2020 - January 2021 are:
So, there has been a steady decline in the average number of goals per match since September.
I then checked for the number of matches finishing 0-0 for the same period. This is the result:
We find that there has been an increase in the number of matches finishing 0-0 in January.
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Todays o1.5 Goal List
Including 1 other game in Aus the bot returned -1.4pts yesterday... Whilst not ideal it's by no means a disaster as it's delivered green over the month... As has been previously mentioned results have seemed more unexpected during the past 2 weeks than normal.
I will stick with this filter for Feb and see how it progresses... However in the meantime for Feb I will look to switch over to Ryan's Split Stakes so that everything is singing from the same hymn sheet.
I think I've found a bot to run on Betdaq so could quite easily run two filters with two different exchanges... The two can overlap too much on one exchange.
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@stuart-capstick I think what you're saying makes perfect sense which is basically... Of late there has been more "unexpected results" than normal... Whilst I haven't over analysed my results (I switched filters mid month so that would be difficult to do) it does seem there has been more unexpected results of late than normal.
This brings back to a post I made the other week about teams playing so many games in such unprecedented times. Squads are being used more than in normal circumstances and therefore results aren't as consistent as normal times... Well that's my thoughts anyway lol.
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@stuart-capstick i had a lot of 0-0s towards the end of the month.
I will also add i had one of the worst weeks of trading ive had to end a great month lol.
So many 0-0s, crap var calls and players missing open nets.
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I'll carry out a more detailed analysis when I get the chance (and probably find what I'm about to say is bollocks), but I think
January and December
a) Didn't have significantly fewer than average goals
But
b) Did have more 0-0s
But
This may just be specific to games on filters. In other words there may have been more unexpected 0-0s but not necessarily more 0-0s overall.
I hope this makes some kind of sense. Otherwise, I'm going back to reading Biff and Chip.
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@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@matt-wood Wow, that seems high... Dont ever recall getting hit with that much red on Ryans
Just double checked my calculation, and it was incorrect. Having one of those days I think. Apologies. Accurate loss was -0.65pts
Me too!
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
LTD / LCS in the Anderlecht v Gent match. Currently 0-0 at HT
Surprise surprise! A 0-0
