The BTC Football Trading Thread
-
LCS in the Blackpool v Northampton match. Currently 1-0 at HT
-
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Ref has completely slaughtered Arsenal with that Luiz decision. F*****g ludicrous!
DIdn't see it. Just saw Luiz (Red Card) and automatically thought he done something stupid?!
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
Ref has completely slaughtered Arsenal with that Luiz decision. F*****g ludicrous!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I'll probably not trade these tonight as there are loads of fixtures tonight, but... I see value in...
Laying Under 1.5 goals in the Randers v Horsens match at 3.9
Laying Under 1.5 goals in the Sheffield United v West Brom match at 3.15
Randers won 3-0
Sheffield United are winning 2-1
I wasn't on any of these, but sometimes its just nice to be right!
-
@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson in view of the discussions around 0-0 and winter breaks, would that this is the 1st Danish game since before Christmas have any bearing on any potential trade?
Possibly that's why the odds are good value! Don't think I'm gonna do it anyway. Just thought the value was there.
-
@keith-anderson in view of the discussions around 0-0 and winter breaks, would that this is the 1st Danish game since before Christmas have any bearing on any potential trade?
-
I'll probably not trade these tonight as there are loads of fixtures tonight, but... I see value in...
Laying Under 1.5 goals in the Randers v Horsens match at 3.9
Laying Under 1.5 goals in the Sheffield United v West Brom match at 3.15
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
Don't know if its just me, but I seem to be having issues with BF loading today. Be aware incase you have any open trades
-
@bottlabroon Thats really useful thanks. My concern has been that whilst trading min stakes liquidity isn't so much an issue because I get matched easily enough, there are still times when for example it greens up and the gap in the market is such that I expect odds to come in to a level place my exit and the money just isn't there .. I've allowed myself to get stung a couple of times just to watch how it happens, but I want to prepare for bigger stakes and so it put me in mind of the consequences of those gaps. I guess with time I will get to grips with what reasonable liquidity looks like. Thanks again
-
Interesting discussion on goals and unpredictability recently.
For my own part I've drastically cut back on the amount of matches I'm trading in play but massively increased the amount of games I'm scalping pre-match, I think there are massive opportunities for scalping team news as the need for squad rotation increases.
I usually get active an hour before when teams or announced in either the match odds or over/under 2.5 if key strikers are being rested/rotated. You need to be quick, it can takes a little as 5 minutes for the markets to reset but there are some decent opportunities there IMO.
-
Liquidity can be a major issue, particularly in the 'lesser' leagues. It's also very dependant on the amount of active matches available to trade. A league 2 match on a Tuesday evening may have reasonable liquidity but that same match on a Saturday afternoon when a lot of major leagues are live will have little liquidity.
In the main the match odds and under/over 2.5 will usually contain reasonable liquidity but some other markets outside of the bigger European leagues won't have much in the other markets. If you're wanting to play in the half time markets, correct score markets, both teams to score etc then best to stick to the bigger leagues.
The market overview on Betfair will tell you how much has been matched on that particular market and the amount matched will give you the biggest cue to likely liquidity. If you have over £10,000 matched in the market you are likely to get some liquidity, if you're entering a market with only a few hundred matched then you're likely to have problems. It's impossible to put an exact figure on how much you want to see matched as it's very dependant on your stakes but certainly the amount matched in that specific market at or close to kick off will be your best guide to in-play liquidity.
-
My trades also more than doubled through december and january.
-
@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@finn-kristensen Cheers for sharing! Do you have February’s and march’s for last year?
I checked the results for the Winter leagues Jan-Mar since the 2016/17 season. The results are pretty much all over the place:
[Please note that the number of matches in Mar 2020 is much lower than previous years due to lockdown, which can affect the results for this month]
The share of matches finishing 0-0 for the same periods:
-
Alternatively it may just be a case of ignoring the 0-0 in January. Would certainly have done wonders for my filter!
-
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
The January 0-0 Spike
Finn very kindly showed that it was present last year. So, it's unlikely to be COVID related.
Could it not be related to the return of the leagues that have a winter break?For example, Austria and Switzerland where 0-0s are rarer than a drunk nun, had a few this January. Austrian and Swiss leagues- winter break.
Likewise, the Czech league, which also has a winter break- a few 0-0s in January.
Even normally reliable leagues such as Serie A and the Bundesliga had some 0-0s in January.
Youre right, if it is every season then obviously it’s not covid related. I actually removed Austria because of the break but did notice they suffered from lack of late(r) goals. I should’ve checked other leagues really but there aren’t many selections from leagues with winter breaks so it can only be partly attributed to that. There were so many selections in December and January which really points to fixture congestion, something we hear about every year. My filter which had 40-50 per month from July to November had 125 in December and 110 in January
Although not solving every problem maybe ignoring Jan selections for leagues with long winter breaks may be the best option.
That said, I think when you can see the goals are flying you can have more confidence in there being more.
-
@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
The January 0-0 Spike
Finn very kindly showed that it was present last year. So, it's unlikely to be COVID related.
Could it not be related to the return of the leagues that have a winter break?For example, Austria and Switzerland where 0-0s are rarer than a drunk nun, had a few this January. Austrian and Swiss leagues- winter break.
Likewise, the Czech league, which also has a winter break- a few 0-0s in January.
Even normally reliable leagues such as Serie A and the Bundesliga had some 0-0s in January.
Youre right, if it is every season then obviously it’s not covid related. I actually removed Austria because of the break but did notice they suffered from lack of late(r) goals. I should’ve checked other leagues really but there aren’t many selections from leagues with winter breaks so it can only be partly attributed to that. There were so many selections in December and January which really points to fixture congestion, something we hear about every year. My filter which had 40-50 per month from July to November had 125 in December and 110 in January
Although not solving every problem maybe ignoring Jan selections for leagues with long winter breaks may be the best option.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
The January 0-0 Spike
Finn very kindly showed that it was present last year. So, it's unlikely to be COVID related.
Could it not be related to the return of the leagues that have a winter break?For example, Austria and Switzerland where 0-0s are rarer than a drunk nun, had a few this January. Austrian and Swiss leagues- winter break.
Likewise, the Czech league, which also has a winter break- a few 0-0s in January.
Even normally reliable leagues such as Serie A and the Bundesliga had some 0-0s in January.
Youre right, if it is every season then obviously it’s not covid related. I actually removed Austria because of the break but did notice they suffered from lack of late(r) goals. I should’ve checked other leagues really but there aren’t many selections from leagues with winter breaks so it can only be partly attributed to that. There were so many selections in December and January which really points to fixture congestion, something we hear about every year. My filter which had 40-50 per month from July to November had 125 in December and 110 in January
-
The January 0-0 Spike
Finn very kindly showed that it was present last year. So, it's unlikely to be COVID related.
Could it not be related to the return of the leagues that have a winter break?For example, Austria and Switzerland where 0-0s are rarer than a drunk nun, had a few this January. Austrian and Swiss leagues- winter break.
Likewise, the Czech league, which also has a winter break- a few 0-0s in January.
Even normally reliable leagues such as Serie A and the Bundesliga, which had short winter breaks, had some 0-0s in January.
-
Finally avoided a 0-0
