The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
LTD / LCS in the Oxford v Wigan match. Currently 0-0 at HT
Stadium evacuated!! Floodlights caught fire! When its not your day!
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LTD / LCS in the Oxford v Wigan match. Currently 0-0 at HT
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
Posted this on my own thread already but want to put this here to show what I'm doing and see what people make of the different angle. Corroboration of paper trades can be seen on my thread.
A lot of trades sailing out the window as I refer to goals not coming within the window of opportunity which for me is mostly pre 60 unless you're talking about multiple 2nd half goals in which case the goal post moves a little with each goal:
Lorient scored early to make it 0-1 and and as I've already seen a) when away scores first there seems to be less chance of another FHG and b) when the goal comes really early there also seems to be less chance for some reason. As it happens that was the only FHG. No trade.
Monaco got an early goal back and if it had stayed that way until 70mins it would have been a trade. also would have been a trade if next goal came pre 60. It didn't. Came 62nd so no trade despite a late goal.
Bochum. 2-0 @ HT, no further goals. No trade.
Pohronie. FHG in the 18th. No further goals before entry point of 30. 29mins. Goal 45+3. Green trade. 1-1 @ HT. No further goals. Red trade. 50/50 split on that game. Damn Slovakians!
Amager. Very early goal. No FH trade. Goal to make it 3-0 on 55 and no further goals pre 60. No trade.
Dynamo Dresden. Goal within FH window of opportunity but next came too early. No trade. No 2nd half goal until 59 which made it 3-0, next on 62mins, out of the window of opportunity. No trade and just as well as no further goals.
Sampdoria. 1-1@ HT and no further goals until 71. Green trade.
Beerschot. Goal in 52nd but no follow up within window of opportunity. Still 1-0 but regardless, no trade.
LASK. Still 0-0 in 25th. No FH trade.
Ultimately, could be worse, doubt odds on Pohronie that high so 2/3 is no doubt small profit.
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Well, what a weekend. From +9 points for February on Friday evening to -6 points for February by Sunday evening. Wretched Man Utd and wretched Germans did for me this weekend but at least Celtic ground out a win. Going out for some fresh air now. I may be some time.....!
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What a difference a day makes two goals in a minute to close out an 01.5 trade before I had chance to do anything
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@chris-osborne true!
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@daniel-mills said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Is anyone tracking disallowed goals from VAR ? Will be interesting to see how it affects trading strategies (if at all).
No point stressing yourself out anymore than necessary
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@daniel-mills Im not but that would be fascinating to see how it changed things, I guess in VARs fairness though you would also have to see if the number of pens given that would not have been affected things too.
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Is anyone tracking disallowed goals from VAR ? Will be interesting to see how it affects trading strategies (if at all).
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@matt-wood Yes, its from both SH filters. Both show the same thing regarding German games - the saturday ones have a big drop-off in numbers (between 10-15% difference in SR between saturday games and games played at other times)
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@richard-latimer There isnt really enough data to drill down to specific scorelines within specific leagues because the data pool becomes too diluted. I dont really like drawing conclusions on even 30 or 40 selections and I don’t do it without a solid hypothesis so to draw them from data sets of 4 or 5 is too small for me
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Just looked at a few leagues out of curiosity and the German leagues have really had a shocker the last few months! So many selections but such poor results. Germany alone has cost 7pts this months so far and most have been Saturday games. France isn’t much better, the figures aren’t great
It's what I've found for most of the big leagues unfortunately. Games guaranteed goals have such slim odds and 0-0's or duff 2nd halfs come from nowhere frequently. Have you calculated against all HT scores? Is there a difference?
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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer I remember reading an article on this somewhere years back (no idea where - I wish I saved it) but it was comparing the goal stats at time in the game in relation to previous goals in the game earlier - the results were huge, the % of a later goal increased massively if there was already one earlier.
It's certainly what I've found from initial data.if it were to continue then would beat lcs on first goal hands down. As with everything though, it's about getting enough data and these exact scenarios don't happen all the time.
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@matt-wood no because the filters i used were profitable from kick off. So lots of early goals
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General question for the FHG traders out there. Given that a fair few people seem to have dropped the FHG trades for now, has anybody looked into doing the opposite?
Idea being back U0.5 at KO and either let it run or trade out at 20ish mins (seemed to be the point people entered when looking for FHG).
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@lee-woodman Would this be on your lcs/2hg filters?
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@lee-woodman said this to my mate yesterday about Bundesliga it’s cost me lately.
France, Italy, Spain all under performers on my filter, haven’t excluded those 3 but I’ll only trade when a team in the top 4 or 5 are involved and I can get someone eyes in the game
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Just looked at a few leagues out of curiosity and the German leagues have really had a shocker the last few months! So many selections but such poor results. Germany alone has cost 7pts this months so far and most have been Saturday games. France isn’t much better, the figures aren’t great
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@richard-latimer I remember reading an article on this somewhere years back (no idea where - I wish I saved it) but it was comparing the goal stats at time in the game in relation to previous goals in the game earlier - the results were huge, the % of a later goal increased massively if there was already one earlier.
