The BTC Football Trading Thread
-
@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
From Trading Composure on Twitter:
Focus on protecting what you have.
This can't be said enough.
You can't seize the opportunities that are constantly materializing if you run out of chips.
Trading is not about one trade, it's about many-many trades.
Spot on mate... Its not about the profit that is made but the profit that is kept
That phrase always plays in my head, Alan. Thankfully.
-
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
From Trading Composure on Twitter:
Focus on protecting what you have.
This can't be said enough.
You can't seize the opportunities that are constantly materializing if you run out of chips.
Trading is not about one trade, it's about many-many trades.
Spot on mate... Its not about the profit that is made but the profit that is kept
-
From Trading Composure on Twitter:
Focus on protecting what you have.
This can't be said enough.
You can't seize the opportunities that are constantly materializing if you run out of chips.
Trading is not about one trade, it's about many-many trades.
-
@martin-walker personally I risk 2pts in my SH trade but not everyone is comfortable with that... You will know when you're staking at the right level when lose and feel annoyed but not stressed... We all feel pissed when losing lol... I was one of the worst losers when I played rugby and my kids used to (and still do lol) call me competitive Dad...
lol -
@alan-steward that was backing 2 goals at half time and 60
My real trading and not testing returned 0.8 points on the game so not a bad result
-
@martin-walker yeah, you trade from early FH or early SH?
-
@alan-steward i think todays was about 0.05 of a point lol
-
@martin-walker yeah sure... Hindsights a wonderful thing and it's easy to say we should have removed red after the 2nd goal goes in... The times that 2nd goal never came for me I'd wished I'd greened up
as I try to say there isn't really a one size fits all... Just green up for now to check avg returns during course of the SH then do same amount of games the other way round... I just green up and move on -
@alan-steward yes thanks mate. I greened up today then went back and read your post realising you said removing red was an option which i should of done with this one.
Not a big issue though im only playing around with it small stakes at the moment.
Just trying to see the returns at certain points -
@martin-walker Hi mate... Easiest way around that is to have your "What if" function on with Betfair then if you go to lay the same amount red in the overs it will show £0 in the unders and the amount of green you would win with 1 more goal in the overs... You can then decide if you want to green up or just remove red (your green up will be shown in the Cash Out)
Always try to leave a couple of mins if you can (in hope of quick second goal)... I set my bot to wait 2mins before greening (would sometimes do l longer if trading manually but odds can move quite quickly against you later in the SH)
Last night my bot in green up delay mode caught the early response (2nd goal) in Denmark last night so it took full wack.
Hope this helps
-
Can anyone help me with working out the profit on something.
If i backed over 1.5 for £10 at 1.93 then another £10 at 2.7. Then removed the red after first goalOdds were around 2.12 at that point. How much would i of made when it went on to win?
Im messing around with alans strategy and i took nominal green instead of removing red
-
Nice to see the Over 1.5 goals in the A-League this morning. I watched the first half and didn't think it would happen. The two goals actually came in the last 15 minutes of the match.
Another A-League match on tomorrow morning
-
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
LTD / LCS in the Atletico Madrid v Celta Vigo match. Currently 1-1 at HT
Goal! 2-1
-
LTD / LCS in the Atletico Madrid v Celta Vigo match. Currently 1-1 at HT
-
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
LTD / LCS in the Randers v Midtjylland match. Currently 0-0 after 52 minutes
Goal! 0-1
-
@keith-anderson Tried to get in but BF suspended...opens up and a goal goes in. Missed that one.
-
LTD / LCS in the Randers v Midtjylland match. Currently 0-0 after 52 minutes
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
As im on here found something that people might be interested in.
When a goal goes in from minute 1 to 10 minutes there is a goal in the 2nd half 79% of the time. Here's what i found outSo from 28 leagues and 25,140 matches
4,940 matches have a goal between 1-10 minutes
From that 4,940 matches 3,949 have a 2nd half goal
Also from that 4,940 matches 3,739 end up O2.5 goalsHavent paper traded this just stumbled upon it
So for example this weekend
Sat - 11 matches goal between 1-10 mins , 9 had a 2nd half goal
Sun - 12 matches goal between 1-10 mins , 9 had a 2nd half goalSteve
-
@alan-steward cheers Alan
very helpful -
@steve-sandell said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Hi All
Hope everyone is well
Just a question, im looking at 2nd half goals and was wondering whats the best market for this and what would be profitable going forward (apologies if this has been answered before). I have a strat thats doing ok
Is it LCS, Overs +2 ahead, Overs +1 ahead, both overs or something else.
Ive tried both overs and LCS and both have there pluses and minuses
I know its sometimes down to personnel preference
Would appreciate peoples opinions and viewsTanks
SteveYep, see where you're coming from however there isn't really a one size (strat) that fits (suits) all.
However if you're looking to lower liabilities and capture all SHG's then backing plus 2 goals at HT for 0.25pts & back plus 2 goals on 59mins (Betfair time) for 0.25pts and then queue LCS at 1.98 for 0.5pts... Green up on first goal or let run to 90mins if matched on LCS at 59mins and let run to end of the game in hope of 2nd late goal for double bubble... Max red 1pts.
The downside to the above strat would be both lower payback than straight LCS & you would need to trade £8 per point to easily trade Betfair on min fees... You can use less with software but then you create another bill (software costs) which may not be sustainable with minimum stakes.
You wouldn't go far wrong using the above strat on Garys SHG filter using minimum £2 stakes and if you check my signature link you should be able to check variance trading Gary's SHG filter ie follow through the spreadsheet and check how profit & loss would pan out.
If you're confident with your game selection by either reading in-play stats or live games then go for the straight LCS.
Hope this helps
