The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@ben-dobie said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman cheers for the response Lee, I'm going to have a closer look by league later on but at first glance it looks like they're all under performing bar Northern Ireland which is flying. Denmark is on there yes and you're right it's been a s**t show !
My wee home and my wee league! Love it!
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Well, what a day yesterday... Never in all my days have I traded a filter which has delivered so many 0-0's when trading the o1.5 goals market... 7 out of 18 games ended 0-0... 7!!! lol, luckily still testing the specific filter so only small stakes, nearly doubled stake size following a positive start to the month... Bullet dodged lol
Imagine the payout if you'd just backed 0-0 FT from the start on these
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@martin-walker Well, weekends are often referred to as being poor for trading but it's not something I've over analysed as I judge the month in general... Last weekend on the new o1.5 filter I'm testing made excellent profits... Mother variance has many ways of slapping us around the face lol... We can only measure and manage, only at the end of this month can I establish the real profitability of the new filter I'm testing... The worst thing we can do is jump in and out of different strategies or trading plans
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This weekend was truly terrible. Seems to be most weekends at the moment
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Well, what a day yesterday... Never in all my days have I traded a filter which has delivered so many 0-0's when trading the o1.5 goals market... 7 out of 18 games ended 0-0... 7!!! lol, luckily still testing the specific filter so only small stakes, nearly doubled stake size following a positive start to the month... Bullet dodged lol
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@lee-woodman cheers for the response Lee, I'm going to have a closer look by league later on but at first glance it looks like they're all under performing bar Northern Ireland which is flying. Denmark is on there yes and you're right it's been a s**t show !
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@ben-dobie Thats a pretty tight range and the fact it has continued into the winter leagues suggests its just some sort of variance. Have you looked at the losers to see if there are any patterns? I noticed that the German leagues have been performing really badly but as my filter has a lot of German games it brings the overall figures down (i had the same issue with Norway Division 2, and to some degree Norway Division 1). I dont yet fully understand why certain leagues just do badly on a filter
Also, is it that the filter has quite a lot of games containing teams returning from winter breaks? Denmark for example appeared on a lot of mine and they have just returned.....lo and behold the figures for those games was terrible. The same happened in Austria when they returned.
It could be 3 or 4 factors each bringing it down slightly, combined with a few freak results
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@martin-futter 97 selections this month, just noticed it's actually dropped to 52% after the weekend ! I looked at it Saturday morning and noticed that if I stuck to games with no prior second half goal it was at 75% so that was my strat this weekend...low and behold that didn't work either and has even dropped to 62%
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@ben-dobie said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin-futter 593 games over a 6 month period mate
I think you have two options.
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Ride it out - You have a lot of data that suggests this is a blip
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Paper trade - See how the twelve months go and whether there are any clear messages that a certain time of year is worse than another
How many selections have there been this month?
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@martin-futter 593 games over a 6 month period mate
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@ben-dobie said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Morning all, anybody got advice on how best to handle variance ?
My filter which has produced a s/r of between 68% - 72% since August (January being 72%) on a goal 70+ has dropped to 56% for Feb, it's biggest decline since it started.In people's experience does this usually turn around and should I ride it out or just paper until it's picked up ... if it picks up ?
how much data was the 68-72% over?
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Morning all, anybody got advice on how best to handle variance ?
My filter which has produced a s/r of between 68% - 72% since August (January being 72%) on a goal 70+ has dropped to 56% for Feb, it's biggest decline since it started.In people's experience does this usually turn around and should I ride it out or just paper until it's picked up ... if it picks up ?
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Anderlecht 0-0 truly ruins the day for me
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Much much better today than yesterday.....just the 1pt loss today!
Always looking for the positives
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@keith-anderson
5th disallowed goal of the day for me, that one.
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@martin-walker same ... I was devastated
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@keith-anderson i saw it change to 1-0 in the 90th minute. Thought id finally creeped into profit for the weekend but swiftly changed back to 0-0
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Another draw in the Bundesliga again today! F*****g awful that league
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
LTD / LCS in the Oxford v Wigan match. Currently 0-0 at HT
Goal! 0-1
Jolly well needed that Keith!
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
LTD / LCS in the Oxford v Wigan match. Currently 0-0 at HT
Goal! 0-1
