The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@james-woodroffe cheers James will do
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@steve-sandell Hi Steve,
mate head over to @Darri's blog the road to full time here on BTC. He does some great work on LCS around 65 mins onwards and today did some great work showing some of the guys how he goes about trading 2HG It is well worth the read as many of us have been able to get quite a lot out of how he goes about them.
Hope that helps. -
Hi All
Hope everyone is well
Just a question, im looking at 2nd half goals and was wondering whats the best market for this and what would be profitable going forward (apologies if this has been answered before). I have a strat thats doing ok
Is it LCS, Overs +2 ahead, Overs +1 ahead, both overs or something else.
Ive tried both overs and LCS and both have there pluses and minuses
I know its sometimes down to personnel preference
Would appreciate peoples opinions and viewsTanks
Steve -
Hi Guys
As theres no U2.5 Filters ive made my own out of about 100 trades (actually 96 ) got a 87.5 percent strike rate. I back under 2.5 using my filter (see below). My aim is to make 10% of my stake or exit after 10min. I normally lay half the stake or a quater at 5min so if a goal does goes in reduces the loss. If a goal does go in i take the loss aim to take about 35-40% loss. I was just woundering if any trades unders Just checking i am going about doing this the right way and does anyone with my experiance know if theres any extra tips can give me ?
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If anyone has a spare five minutes they should / could complete the Consultation for the Gambling Commission. The deadline is tomorrow.
John Folan has already posted about this, but I thought I'd post it in here too!
They are 'Seeking views on how gambling companies interact with their customers'.
I think it's important!
We can't have Sports Trading in the same bracket as a casino or bingo!
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Have added Aussie results to signature spreadsheet... It's a bit raw but might help for now, will look to tidy up later with Goal Times & SONT
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Don’t forget the A-League tomorrow morning. Sydney v Wellington Phoenix. Good for a FHG, SHG or Over 1.5 goals.
I’ll be drip laying under 1.5 goals
FHG, SHG and Over 1.5 goals all came in.
I think the best way to approach the A-League is drip laying Under 1.5 goals. Anyone think differently?
When I get time... Unfortunately don't think it will be today, I will print out all A League game results for this season to date... Don't think it will be relevant to look at last years results due to interruption's/no crowds with Covid... When I've done that I can fully evaluate and post the findings up here
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
As you all know, I don't record my trades (You really really should!). I noticed that I hadn't made as much as usual for the month of January. I needed to find out way. Of course, if I had a spreadsheet, I would know exactly. Most of my trades / bets for January have been placed with Betfair. After looking at my bet history, I can see I lost quite a bit on laying 'Under 1.5 goals' market. I'm normally quite good with this market, so I am a bit surprised.
So, as a result I have been limiting my trades of that market. My bread and butter is LTD / LCS at HT. I think my laying Under 1.5 goals trades are a direct result in my failure to crack the FHG market and /or my unwillingness to wait until HT (FOMO). Even as a profitable trader I still have 'issues'.
I think I hit every 0-0 available in January!
My 78% overall from laying correct score on 0-0 went to around 43%. It was a ridiculous month haha! Luckily I was papertrading for around half of that.
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@keith-anderson january was really bad for 0-0s. Hopefully through it now with the weekend providing goals everywhere
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As you all know, I don't record my trades (You really really should!). I noticed that I hadn't made as much as usual for the month of January. I needed to find out way. Of course, if I had a spreadsheet, I would know exactly. Most of my trades / bets for January have been placed with Betfair. After looking at my bet history, I can see I lost quite a bit on laying 'Under 1.5 goals' market. I'm normally quite good with this market, so I am a bit surprised.
So, as a result I have been limiting my trades of that market. My bread and butter is LTD / LCS at HT. I think my laying Under 1.5 goals trades are a direct result in my failure to crack the FHG market and /or my unwillingness to wait until HT (FOMO). Even as a profitable trader I still have 'issues'.
I think I hit every 0-0 available in January!
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson
I think this probably the best way for this league.
So often, because of the standard of the league, goals just "happen". It's great for goals but the standard is about the third division of most European leagues. This means patterns of play are not do easy to spot.
You know there'll be goals but have little idea about when. Drip laying U 1.5 seems very smart to me.I think so too!
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@keith-anderson
I think this probably the best way for this league.
So often, because of the standard of the league, goals just "happen". It's great for goals but the standard is about the third division of most European leagues. This means patterns of play are not do easy to spot.
You know there'll be goals but have little idea about when. Drip laying U 1.5 seems very smart to me. -
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Don’t forget the A-League tomorrow morning. Sydney v Wellington Phoenix. Good for a FHG, SHG or Over 1.5 goals.
I’ll be drip laying under 1.5 goals
FHG, SHG and Over 1.5 goals all came in.
I think the best way to approach the A-League is drip laying Under 1.5 goals. Anyone think differently?
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@darri Whats brilliant about it for me is it fills in some of the gaps between downloading the filters and entering the trades. The filters so far are doing quite nicely but I want to question why the greens are green and the reds red .. I've been trying to analyse any constants in the reds, I'm constantly plotting new scenarios to examine whether I've exited too early on the greens for example and plotting odds movements on graphs etc but that it in between that you've described will help massively and also help me build the overall picture. I know I've said it but thanks again.
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@mark-maguire no problem bud, i can only talk about 2nd half goals as that what all my trading is around. Remember tho my way is the way it is because thats how i find value, some traders prefer automation to eliminate opinions, some set and forget and others inplay trade. Its just finding out whats best for you. Each has different ways to value trades, all viable. Just offering how i do it.
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@darri Thank you ! Makes complete sense .. I've certainly decided to paper trade instead of of min stakes where I think odds have been too low, but I can't claim to have applied any science to that so I'll take a look at your blog post and get to work on some probabilities .. really useful thank you!!
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@mark-maguire value is just how you determine if a price on offer is better than your probability chance. Coin flip is 50% (2.0 odds) chance of heads or tails. If you get offered 2.10 for heads thats value (back) if youd get 1.9 thats not (so lay it). In terms of making that football related there are way more variables. But to keep it simple try to find out what the probability chance of your trade winning is. So lets say we think there would be a 80% chance that liverpool vs city would have a 2nd half goal. We then take 80% and convert that to odds 1.25. Then we can judge if its value or not. How we get to original decision of what its probability actually is thats upto the individual. For me i use the pre-inplay-price model i made for myself. I used to be a gambler so needed to make something to make sure i kept discipline in determining value and not hunches. But kept simple if your opinion via stats software and inplay says this games chance is 'x'% and the odds on offer is better then take it. iIl quote a post on my road to full time blog that shows the model i talk about.
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Don’t forget the A-League tomorrow morning. Sydney v Wellington Phoenix. Good for a FHG, SHG or Over 1.5 goals.
I’ll be drip laying under 1.5 goals
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@keith-anderson again thanks Keith. I feel I have a reasonable grip on games and the advice is more useful than you could know .. I think I've certainly been guilty of trading too many of the filter results and need to spend some time working out those reasons why not. Thanks again, genuinely grateful
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@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson thanks Keith.. lnteresting in that I spent the morning trying to do some stuff on the odds movements and value.. I think I've had a run where loads of goals went in and I had lots of green and this means I haven't put enough thought into odds. If I'm honest its a bit daunting to get to grips with this concept of "value" .. I've tried to model my trades to date in different ways to see the outcome if I'd delayed going in, delayed exiting etc.. but how to you measure your odds in terms of value?
I don't know! I know it when I see it. Experience will play a big part. I watch a lot of football - the teams, the league, the stats all play a part. Odds on the Lazio match at HT today weren't great. Anyone watching the match would struggle to see where a goal was coming from...but it did come...but the value wasn't there.
You'll also need to get over the 'Fear of Missing Out' - otherwise you'll see value in every game. The less trades the better. - This is hard to do when you're trying to build a bank, but it is essential.
