The BTC Football Trading Thread

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I'm going for a 2nd FHG in Uruguay.

Should say, I won't be entering until 29mins (30th)

Plenty of action. Certainly looked like there should have been another one. Will now lay the 0-1 on 70mins if no further goals. if goes 1-1 pre 60 will lay that score on 70. If 2 quick goals scored latest 60mins will lay that score on 74. Finally, if it goes 2-0 before 56mins I'll lay that on 70.

Finally finally if the 3rd goal was to come before 70mins I'll wait until 80mins and lay that score.

Plenty of options.

1-1 on 50. No further goals and I'll lay that in the 70th.

Well I'm in.

Loads of shots on and off target. Proving once again that making something work in practice way harder than making it work in theory.....

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I'm going for a 2nd FHG in Uruguay.

Should say, I won't be entering until 29mins (30th)

Plenty of action. Certainly looked like there should have been another one. Will now lay the 0-1 on 70mins if no further goals. if goes 1-1 pre 60 will lay that score on 70. If 2 quick goals scored latest 60mins will lay that score on 74. Finally, if it goes 2-0 before 56mins I'll lay that on 70.

Finally finally if the 3rd goal was to come before 70mins I'll wait until 80mins and lay that score.

Plenty of options.

1-1 on 50. No further goals and I'll lay that in the 70th.

Well I'm in.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I'm going for a 2nd FHG in Uruguay.

Should say, I won't be entering until 29mins (30th)

Plenty of action. Certainly looked like there should have been another one. Will now lay the 0-1 on 70mins if no further goals. if goes 1-1 pre 60 will lay that score on 70. If 2 quick goals scored latest 60mins will lay that score on 74. Finally, if it goes 2-0 before 56mins I'll lay that on 70.

Finally finally if the 3rd goal was to come before 70mins I'll wait until 80mins and lay that score.

Plenty of options.

1-1 on 50. No further goals and I'll lay that in the 70th.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I'm going for a 2nd FHG in Uruguay.

Should say, I won't be entering until 29mins (30th)

Plenty of action. Certainly looked like there should have been another one. Will now lay the 0-1 on 70mins if no further goals. if goes 1-1 pre 60 will lay that score on 70. If 2 quick goals scored latest 60mins will lay that score on 74. Finally, if it goes 2-0 before 56mins I'll lay that on 70.

Finally finally if the 3rd goal was to come before 70mins I'll wait until 80mins and lay that score.

Plenty of options.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I'm going for a 2nd FHG in Uruguay.

Should say, I won't be entering until 29mins (30th)

Richard Latimer

I'm going for a 2nd FHG in Uruguay.

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@keith-anderson there certainly was mate, bet the odds wont be so good on the return leg... I was doing my manual Split Stake and +2 goal SHG Strat.

Akiva Anderson

@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Cracking night in Europe tonight... Dont normally do cup games but Europa League has been good for goals... 2pts green trading from IPS

Great value laying Under 1.5 goals.

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Cracking night in Europe tonight... Dont normally do cup games but Europa League has been good for goals... 2pts green trading from IPS

Richard Latimer

To elaborate it's not that goals are guaranteed at the beginning. Far from it. What I am finding is match scenario dictates likely goals more than the pre-match stats.

Richard Latimer

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer If you find its either loads of goals or none then it may be an option to go for 2+ SH goals at the start of the half and cash out if no goal by X minutes

I'm finding opportunity to enter for more goals without the need of potential red. Data set is low individually but across over 400 selections I can see an angle for around 130-140 good trades.

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@richard-latimer If you find its either loads of goals or none then it may be an option to go for 2+ SH goals at the start of the half and cash out if no goal by X minutes

Richard Latimer

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer Probably but that situation is the worst so it would need an improvement of 8 or 9% to even be a consideration. Then when you think there was probably less than 60 0-1, if half of those were in favour of the dog leading then it’s only 30 extra trades over 6 months, nothing to get excited about in my opinion (hope that makes sense!)

Yeah of course. I'm just looking at so many angles from my one filter now that things which weren't at first apparent are forming all sorts of patterns. Not many qualifiers for each scenario but as a whole is something else.

It’s mad how much you can see when you look from different viewpoints. We have to be careful not to draw conclusions too early but I think it shows that we have certain preconceptions as ‘fans’ that don’t necessarily ring true

Absolutely. You think goals are done when the half starts off crazy but in truth they are only just beginning. Same as first half. You think, oh no I missed that but so often another seems to follow when goals are scored in what I would term as the window of opportunity.

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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer Probably but that situation is the worst so it would need an improvement of 8 or 9% to even be a consideration. Then when you think there was probably less than 60 0-1, if half of those were in favour of the dog leading then it’s only 30 extra trades over 6 months, nothing to get excited about in my opinion (hope that makes sense!)

Yeah of course. I'm just looking at so many angles from my one filter now that things which weren't at first apparent are forming all sorts of patterns. Not many qualifiers for each scenario but as a whole is something else.

It’s mad how much you can see when you look from different viewpoints. We have to be careful not to draw conclusions too early but I think it shows that we have certain preconceptions as ‘fans’ that don’t necessarily ring true

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@alan-steward All other scores combined convert at 80%, although individually they may not. 0-0 is a little lower than 80 but not too low as to not be offset by the reduction in odds. I noticed on all my other filters that 1-0 and 0-1 aren’t good results so thought I’d check the same. I don’t mind a reduction in SR if the odds are lower on average but I don’t see that being the case with those 2 scorelines

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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Just having a quick look at the results from Garys SHG filter (thanks @Alan-Steward for sharing them)

The SR across all games from 1st August upto 23rd Jan was 77.7% (272/350). If you remove 1-0 and 0-1 HT scores (which ive found to be very hit and miss) the SR improves to 80.17% (182/227). That leaves 73.17% SR (90/123) on 1-0/0-1 HT scores. This SR stays the same whether there is a goal prior to 60' or not.

Of the games which werent 1-0/0-1 at HT those which had a goal on/before 59' had another goal 78/94 (82.9%) whilst those with no goal prior to 60' had one AFTER 60' 108/137 (78.8%)

Just thought id share my results not sure whether they are of interest to anyone

So basically any scoreline other than 0-1 & 1-0 converts all but @ 80% post 59mins?

Richard Latimer

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer Probably but that situation is the worst so it would need an improvement of 8 or 9% to even be a consideration. Then when you think there was probably less than 60 0-1, if half of those were in favour of the dog leading then it’s only 30 extra trades over 6 months, nothing to get excited about in my opinion (hope that makes sense!)

Yeah of course. I'm just looking at so many angles from my one filter now that things which weren't at first apparent are forming all sorts of patterns. Not many qualifiers for each scenario but as a whole is something else.

? Offline

@richard-latimer Probably but that situation is the worst so it would need an improvement of 8 or 9% to even be a consideration. Then when you think there was probably less than 60 0-1, if half of those were in favour of the dog leading then it’s only 30 extra trades over 6 months, nothing to get excited about in my opinion (hope that makes sense!)

Richard Latimer

@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Just having a quick look at the results from Garys SHG filter (thanks @Alan-Steward for sharing them)

The SR across all games from 1st August upto 23rd Jan was 77.7% (272/350). If you remove 1-0 and 0-1 HT scores (which ive found to be very hit and miss) the SR improves to 80.17% (182/227). That leaves 73.17% SR (90/123) on 1-0/0-1 HT scores. This SR stays the same whether there is a goal prior to 60' or not.

Of the games which werent 1-0/0-1 at HT those which had a goal on/before 59' had another goal 78/94 (82.9%) whilst those with no goal prior to 60' had one AFTER 60' 108/137 (78.8%)

Just thought id share my results not sure whether they are of interest to anyone

I do wonder if the 0-1 would improve if you limit to home teams being behind that have a good average.

? Offline

Just having a quick look at the results from Garys SHG filter (thanks @Alan-Steward for sharing them)

The SR across all games from 1st August upto 23rd Jan was 77.7% (272/350). If you remove 1-0 and 0-1 HT scores (which ive found to be very hit and miss) the SR improves to 80.17% (182/227). That leaves 73.17% SR (90/123) on 1-0/0-1 HT scores. This SR stays the same whether there is a goal prior to 60' or not.

Of the games which werent 1-0/0-1 at HT those which had a goal on/before 59' had another goal 78/94 (82.9%) whilst those with no goal prior to 60' had one AFTER 60' 108/137 (78.8%)

Just thought id share my results not sure whether they are of interest to anyone