The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Arsenal through and we did it the Arsenal way haha
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@martin-walker Thats great thanks just what I was looking for. Quite a high SR Thanks for the info gives me a good starting point
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@matt-wood i cant remember the exact number but mine was between 80-85 from kick off i believe. With 15 minutes being 78+
Hard to remember exact numbers as i found fhg to fluctuate a lot
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For the experienced FHG traders, when this was pre covid and working what would have been a good SR from KO? rough ball park is fine as Im looking to test something that will require a goal FH and wondered what SR I should be looking at as a 'good' level.
Thanks in advance
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@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward The posts are fantastic and really insightful. Thanks for the stuff on pace which really does help.
I will second this @Alan-Steward your posts this week have been really insightful and help loads. Appreciate the time and effort.
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@alan-steward The posts are fantastic and really insightful. Thanks for the stuff on pace which really does help. I've developed filters which so far have been really good but in refining them I've been going back and analysing the reds to see what the common factors are, if any .. and looking at stats like SONT Dangerous attacks etc etc .. to consider these in terms of pace/momentum is great and will definitely feed in to what I'm looking for.
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@mark-maguire yeah sure, not overly easy to fully explain but good pace would be strong attacking intent over a 10min period but also a few of them per game... ie not just once in the game... Strong attacking intent in a 10min period would be 2 SONT, maybe 2 SOFFT, maybe 1 corner... If we get that combo with previous attacking intent ie it's not just the first time within the game then a goal looks likely although not guaranteed... Other stuff to look at would be previous 5 games, are there some wins in there (3 & 1 score draw is healthy) are there BTTS, is there home dominance... So many things to consider its not easy to explain in one post and instead of creating a Blog on trading Split Stakes maybe a Blog on trading live stats would be good... But that's so time consuming.
Going back to Nimes the only thing really shouting out at me was Lorient conceding away from home and Nimes previous 2 home games with 5 goals and 1 win although scoring in previous games... Not strong form but I was only looking for 1 goal.
My decision to lay ther U0.5 was taking many things into consideration, such as my previous green from the week, possibilities of replacing that red with future days/weekends trading plus the fact my additional liability was only .8pts red as I was already facing 0.8pts red down the barrel... In my mind this level of decision taking harnesses much experience of trading and isn't learnt in 5mins.
Hopefully these posts have helped somewhat and post back if I can offer any additional help with inplay stats... Not easy to post but will try the best I can
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@alan-steward Alan this is really interesting for me, can you expand a bit on what you mean/where you derive pace from.. in terms of what I'm trying to develop this kind of thing is invaluable so any help appreciated
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The 2 main games that shout goals to me in tonights games are Rangers & Leverkusen... Unfortunately this time round the markets share the same view and the o1.5 odds in this leg are too skinny, wouldn't enter o2.5 goals in cup games so will check out at HT and see if any desperation & value presents itself
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Nothing on my main Split Stake filter today... So will look to take the day/evening off unless any Europa League games take my fancy... IPS & Odds will dictate
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Todays Split Stake picks following the strat below but by all means wait until 30mins and use Ryans Split Stake as long as still 0-0
24/2/2021 NIMES LORIENT - Scratch (Ended up laying u0.5 goals in this game as I just didn't see it ending 0-0 after all my previous pre game research... However, that said IPS did not support this decision and I should have taken red on the chin... Only reason I was prepared to take on the lay of u0.5 goals was that I had a few games lined up to help offset/cover 2pts red... As things panned out it all went my way and I scratched this game and took 2pts green from in-play trades... But I took a very calculated gamble which I probably shouldn't have taken!!! sometimes we trade what we see and feel and tonight, for me, it was one of those days of feeling percentages were lined up for me... Can't really add anything other than I was happy to take the calculated risk and being prepared to use the weekend to claw back losses... Not really a very professional way of looking at things but a risk I was comfortable to take after weighing up all options)
6th time on the filter this season and Lorient have conceded away from home in all 5 previous games
Consider saver lay above_ No
And please, no private message questions regarding any of my stats or info, please keep any questions posted here so that any member can see my/all responses
Split Stake Trade
25% Stake on 15mins (if still 0-0)
25% stake plus 25pts
25% stake 1 whole pt (plus on 2nd stake)
25% stake 1 whole pt againTypical staking could look like;
25% on 1.65
25% on 1.90
25% on 2.9
25% on 3.9Exit when the back price on over 0.5 goals reached your average odds... prob around 80mins
Remove red if only matched on first 2 stakes
Take green if matched on 3rd & 4th stakes
You can consider using a Saver Lay when removing red on leagues where considered "Yes" above but ensure game is hot and teams are chasing the goal - Saver lay would be to Lay u0.5 goals around the 75/80min mark and then decide to either keep u1.5 live ie not exit trade and lay u0.5 for 1pt or exit trade & lay u0.5 to cover red on u1.5
Total green on above trades = 0pts Scratch
Green on in-play trades = 2.13pts red (1 additional Split Stakes & 8 SHG Split Stake)
Total P/L on Tuesday 2.13pts green
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A brief overview of how I trade...
This is how I view my in-play trades using "in-play Trading Software"... From here I can study numerous games I'm interested in at one time, I couldn't possibly watch all these games live but can comfortably trade them from here... From the attached jpeg I can see that around the 70th minute mark the Nimes game was picking up an element of pace (it went red), not a huge amount of pace, but after also confirming with Sofascore (I load all of my days games I'm interested in on this app) I could see Lorient had hit the woodwork and Nimes had a big chance missed and whilst there wasn't a huge amount of attacking intent shown it told me that both teams were giving it a go.
Walsall was another game I was interested in and at HT decided I would enter a SHG trade if pace picked up, however, if you look at the graph (far right) the game didn't have much pace following 5/10mins from start of the SH so I waited (was hoping to see sustained attacking intent, should have known better with league 2 football, it happens or it doesn't happen
... And then the goal came from nowhere and I missed the trade... Not a problem but the point is this... Pre match I'd profiled this game as a 3 goal match (another post) and they don't often finish 0-0, but moved on after the goal and this match became a watching brief only.St. Mirren just didn't float my boat or grab my attention.
Barcelona I layed u1.5 goals at HT and let it run after the early SHG
If you have any questions please post them here as they might echo other peoples thought's who don't post the question/query.
Don't bother questioning my grammar as i know it's *hite
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This post is deleted!
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
The J League and K League start back this weekend
Think I saw Free Sports advertising J League matches also mate.
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The J League and K League start back this weekend
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@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
LTD / LCS in the Preston v QPR match. Currently 0-0 at HT
0-0
From 100% last night to 33% tonight.
66% overall, though.
You’re a glass half full type of guy! I’m a glass half empty type of guy!
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
LTD / LCS in the Preston v QPR match. Currently 0-0 at HT
0-0
From 100% last night to 33% tonight.
66% overall, though.
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
LTD / LCS in the Preston v QPR match. Currently 0-0 at HT
0-0
From 100% last night to 33% tonight.
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I’ve LCS in the Brentford v Sheffield Wednesday match. Currently 1-0 at HT
Goal! 2-0 Great goal. He took it well
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LTD / LCS in the Preston v QPR match. Currently 0-0 at HT
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game...
