The BTC Football Trading Thread

? Offline

Todays Split Stake picks following the strat below but by all means wait until 30mins and use Ryans Split Stake as long as still 0-0

23/2/2021 AARAU XAMAX
23/2/2021 WINTERTHUR KRIENS
Consider saver lay above_ Yes

Split Stake Trade
25% Stake on 15mins (if still 0-0)
25% stake plus 25pts
25% stake 1 whole pt (plus on 2nd stake)
25% stake 1 whole pt again

Typical staking could look like;
25% on 1.65
25% on 1.90
25% on 2.9
25% on 3.9

Exit when the back price on over 0.5 goals reached your average odds... prob around 80mins

Remove red if only matched on first 2 stakes

Take green if matched on 3rd & 4th stakes

You can consider using a Saver Lay when removing red on leagues where considered "Yes" above but ensure game is hot and teams are chasing the goal - Saver lay would be to Lay u0.5 goals around the 75/80min mark and then decide to either keep u1.5 live ie not exit trade and lay u0.5 for 1pt or exit trade & lay u0.5 to cover red on u1.5

? Offline

@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Todays Split Stake picks following the strat below but by all means wait until 30mins and use Ryans Split Stake as long as still 0-0

22/2/2021 CLUB BRUGGE KV LEUVEN - NT goal too early
Consider saver lay above_ No

22/2/2021 JUVENTUS CROTONE - 0.35pts green (Odds too skinny in o1.5 market so traded o2.5 market, removed red on 2nd goal and green released with 3rd goal)
Consider saver lay above_ No

22/2/2021 FEIRENSE ACADEMICA - 0.41pts green
Consider saver lay above_ No

Split Stake Trade
25% Stake on 15mins (if still 0-0)
25% stake plus 25pts
25% stake 1 whole pt (plus on 2nd stake)
25% stake 1 whole pt again

Typical staking could look like;
25% on 1.65
25% on 1.90
25% on 2.9
25% on 3.9

Exit when the back price on over 0.5 goals reached your average odds... prob around 80mins

Remove red if only matched on first 2 stakes

Take green if matched on 3rd & 4th stakes

You can consider using a Saver Lay when removing red on leagues where considered "Yes" above but ensure game is hot and teams are chasing the goal - Saver lay would be to Lay u0.5 goals around the 75/80min mark and then decide to either keep u1.5 live ie not exit trade and lay u0.5 for 1pt or exit trade & lay u0.5 to cover red on u1.5

Total green on above trades = 0.76ptspts green

Green on in-play trades = 0.26pts green (1 additional Split Stakes, removed red after 1st goal)

Total P/L on Monday 1.02pts green

? Offline

@richard-latimer Cheers Richard, I will get on that and it will add another level to the data I have before for putting money down.

Richard Latimer

@mark-gorton said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer Hi Richard, I am new to this so not sure where to find the averages you mention. I just look at the odds and in play...Where would I look for these?

On the stats page, my filter finds home average as well as splitting them between 1st and 2nd half.

When I refer to ave odds I get this from odds portal.com.

? Offline

@richard-latimer Hi Richard, I am new to this so not sure where to find the averages you mention. I just look at the odds and in play...Where would I look for these?

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@mark-gorton said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer Yep, I was on it as well, it was all there to happen but no luck.

I've noticed it was the first of these where home team hadn't scored yet. Could be something in it but time will tell.

Only a 2.22 lay anyway

Also the lowest home average of these. Things you notice after the fact. Nevermind.

Richard Latimer

@mark-gorton said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer Yep, I was on it as well, it was all there to happen but no luck.

I've noticed it was the first of these where home team hadn't scored yet. Could be something in it but time will tell.

Only a 2.22 lay anyway

? Offline

@richard-latimer Yep, I was on it as well, it was all there to happen but no luck.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Going for 75th minute goal in Jong AZ

Don't have any data on this particular scoreline (0-3) after 2 quick goals but the stats still suggest a lively game.

Not to be

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Going for 75th minute goal in Jong AZ

Don't have any data on this particular scoreline (0-3) after 2 quick goals but the stats still suggest a lively game.

Richard Latimer

Going for 75th minute goal in Jong AZ

? Offline

@finn-kristensen hopefully she doesn't sign up

Finn Kristensen

@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@alan-steward To be fair least she didn't take you to the garden and bury you in it that's what my wife would have done.

What I don't understand is how they go from lovely - then they become this angry beast when they become a wife.

Either you're divorced or your wife doesn't read this forum (in which case, if she does, the first option will happen, provided you survive her "invite" for a walk in the garden).

Martin Walker

@chris-osborne most of the games hit my filters from that league but just not working out. Plenty of other leagues smashing it. Just gonna drop them

? Offline

@martin-walker interesting will look at that having found a 0-0 in Antwerp last night, Brugge also on more than one filter today

Martin Walker

Removing belgium has given me the biggest increase in strike rate ive ever seen. Horrible league at the moment

? Offline

@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@alan-steward To be fair least she didn't take you to the garden and bury you in it that's what my wife would have done.

What I don't understand is how they go from lovely - then they become this angry beast when they become a wife.

Lol... Wait until they get older... To be fair it didn't hurt to take time out, I was just trying to measure 100% of my selections this week... If I'm being honest I think I'd have been in both the Nice & Portuguese games just before the goals because the odds were good value, I would no doubt have entered on 13/14mins but obviously with early goals in both games I would have then removed red which would have returned around 0.15pts for Nice as it was a 3 goal game but scratch with the game in Portugal (1 goal game).

Ryan

@alan-steward To be fair least she didn't take you to the garden and bury you in it that's what my wife would have done.

What I don't understand is how they go from lovely - then they become this angry beast when they become a wife.

? Offline

Todays Split Stake picks following the strat below but by all means wait until 30mins and use Ryans Split Stake as long as still 0-0

22/2/2021 CLUB BRUGGE KV LEUVEN
Consider saver lay above_ No
22/2/2021 JUVENTUS CROTONE
Consider saver lay above_ No
22/2/2021 FEIRENSE ACADEMICA
Consider saver lay above_ No

Split Stake Trade
25% Stake on 15mins (if still 0-0)
25% stake plus 25pts
25% stake 1 whole pt (plus on 2nd stake)
25% stake 1 whole pt again

Typical staking could look like;
25% on 1.65
25% on 1.90
25% on 2.9
25% on 3.9

Exit when the back price on over 0.5 goals reached your average odds... prob around 80mins

Remove red if only matched on first 2 stakes

Take green if matched on 3rd & 4th stakes

You can consider using a Saver Lay when removing red on leagues where considered "Yes" above but ensure game is hot and teams are chasing the goal - Saver lay would be to Lay u0.5 goals around the 75/80min mark and then decide to either keep u1.5 live ie not exit trade and lay u0.5 for 1pt or exit trade & lay u0.5 to cover red on u1.5

? Offline

@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Todays Split Stake picks following the strat below but by all means wait until 30mins and use Ryans Split Stake as long as still 0-0

21/2/2021 ANTWERP ST. v TRUIDEN - Red -0.74pts

21/2/2021 WAREGEM ST. v LIEGE - Wasn't trading but looked NT goal too early

Consider saver Lay above_ Yes

21/2/2021 CORINTHIANS v VASCO - Red -0.765pts

21/2/2021 SANTOS v FLUMINENSE - NT goal too early

Consider saver lay above_ Yes

21/2/2021 NICE v METZ - Wasn't trading but looked NT goal too early

21/2/2021 PARIS SG v MONACO - NT goal too early

Consider saver lay above_ No

21/2/2021 ATALANTA v NAPOLI - Green 0.1pts

Consider saver lay above_ No

21/2/2021 PSV v VITESSE - Wasn't trading but looked NT goal too early

Consider saver lay above_ No

21/2/2021 RIO AVE v FAMALICAO - Wasn't trading but looked NT goal too early

Consider saver lay above_ No Stake Trade
25% Stake on 15mins (if still 0-0)
25% stake plus 25pts
25% stake 1 whole pt (plus on 2nd stake)
25% stake 1 whole pt again

Typical staking could look like;
25% on 1.65
25% on 1.90
25% on 2.9
25% on 3.9

Exit when the back price on over 0.5 goals reached your average odds... prob around 80mins

Remove red if only matched on first 2 stakes

Take green if matched on 3rd & 4th stakes

You can consider using a Saver Lay when removing red on leagues where considered "Yes" above but ensure game is hot and teams are chasing the goal - Saver lay would be to Lay u0.5 goals around the 75/80min mark and then decide to either keep u1.5 live ie not exit trade and lay u0.5 for 1pt or exit trade & lay u0.5 to cover red on u1.5

Total green on above trades = -1.4ptspts

Green on in-play trades = 0.72pts green (2 additional Split Stakes o1.5 & 1 SHG Drip Stake)

Total P/L on Saturday -0.68pts

With regards to using Saver Lays on the above losses IPS did not support this as SONT weren't sufficient coupled with the game not being hot... I would have considered Laying u0.5 if the pace of either game picked up towards the end of the game but IPS did not support this so after another successful day with in-play trading I decided to take the losses on the chin and move on